Wednesday (11/30) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

We had another round of rain overnight and early  this morning with modest totals once again:The big picture shows the steady rain pushing east. Severe weather continues in parts of the Deep South this morning:I think we will see spotty showers for the rest of the daylight hours today; much of the time will be rain-free. Rain chances go up again this evening along the cold front. Simulated radar:It is fitting that a mild November will end on a balmy note today with highs near 60. We certainly were not alone in the "warm November" club:Behind the front, December will start as Decembers often do in our part of the country: CLOUDY. This is our cloudiest time of the year. There may be a stray flurry or sprinkle Thursday. Temperatures will hold in the lower 40s with wind chills near freezing.Friday will be similar with perhaps a better chance for flurries.The flow will be somewhat favorable for a few lake-effect bands to get going, and this will be mainly an issue for NW PA.

THE WEEKEND

Saturday looks...surprise! Cloudy, brisk and cold. There can still be random flurries around.Sunday may start with some sunshine but clouds will increase again. There is a chance for light precipitation, perhaps a rain/snow mix, toward the end of the day and into Sunday night.

NEXT WEEK

A wild week. Temperatures will warm early in the week but a true arctic air mass will slide across the country by midweek. This much colder air should arrive here by the end of next week. The clash of the air masses may spin up a good snow storm for the Midwest. This is 8 days away, but here's one idea of what next Thursday's air mass may look like:Behind that front, the coldest air of the season is very likely. December forecast calls for an "average" month which is actually quite a change compared to last December and most of 2016!  

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Tuesday (11/29) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Last night's rain has come and gone and the radar is quiet this morning. It will stay that way all day.Rain totals were pretty modest last night, generally under a quarter of an inch.With a mix of sunshine and clouds, we expect a nice day today. Temperatures will be dependent on how much sunshine there is. Enough sun and it can get into the low 60s in spots.Round #2 of rain is on the way for late tonight and tomorrow morning. Wet at the bus stop Wednesday:By the afternoon the rain should be much more "hit or miss" but the threat of at least a spotty shower will remain in the forecast.

DECEMBER STARTS WITH COOL DOWN

Cloudy and uneventful weather can be expected for the first day of the new month. It will be blustery and colder with temperatures holding about steady in the lower 40s.A weak disturbance could bring very spotty rain or wet snow showers Friday. Highs near 40.The weekend looks similar.

LONG RANGE

Notice the cold air shown on the model for the end of next week into next weekend.A true arctic air mass will invade the US for the first time this season next week (purple color). It will arrive in the Northwest and then ooze east. Looks like a cold few days for us but nothing earth-shattering for December.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

 

WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Monday (11/28) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING AND HAPPY MONDAY

A cold and frosty start this morning as the sky was clear for a large part of the night. Now clouds have rolled in. A more comfortable day today despite the clouds. A breezy afternoon on the way with highs in the lower 50s.Notice the rain off to our west this morning:Looks ominous but it's fighting dry air across the region. Check out the low dewpoints:As the rain pushed north and east I expect most of it to get eaten up by the dry air. A sprinkle or light shower will be possible this afternoon but the more significant rain is much more likely after 7-8pm. Hi-res futurecast:The rain is great news for the drought-stricken Southeast. What they don't want is the severe weather but that will be a threat later today in the lower Mississippi Valley:We'll have a soggy night tonight but tomorrow...WOW will it turn nice! We'll flirt with the record high of 66, set in 2005.

REST OF THE WEEK: BACK TO REALITY

Rain is likely to return Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front.Rain totals with the 2 rounds of rain: likely to be 0.75"-1.00".Thursday and Friday will be colder and more seasonable as we welcome in December. Plenty of clouds and a rain/snow shower around. 

LONG RANGE

December may start seasonable but a colder air mass seems likely to invade during the 2nd week of the month.The trend on the colimate models has been colder for December when compared to what they were advertising previously. I suspect we will end up with a near-average December...perhaps slightly colder than average. Model trend: 

WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Tuesday (11/22) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING.....

After a blustery and cold Monday, today will be a better day with more sunshine and less wind. Temperatures will still struggle. The farther north and east you go, the more clouds you will find today. The yellow color on this map shows a deck of low stratocumulus clouds:Highs today will be 8-10 degrees below average.Want snow? Head to New York. Downwind of Lake Ontario, between 3 and 4 feet of snow is on the ground in some places.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER

The busy day before Thanksgiving will feature increasing clouds. Rain may push in by around sunset but it's more likely after 7pm. At the onset of the precipitation there may be wet snowflakes or sleet pellets mixed in.On the holiday, a fizzling low pressure system will meander through and there will be a deck of low clouds around all day. Out of these clouds there can be a touch of light rain or drizzle at times. Afternoon tempoeratures in the 40s.Friday will not be any nicer looking and once again there can be a little rain in the area.That low will intensify along the East Coast Saturday and the Valley will get into a chilly northwest flow. At this time of the year that typically means clouds and Saturday will be no exception. The chance for showers will continue.Sunday looks dry and sunnier for those traveling at the end of the holiday weekend.

LONG RANGE

Looks unsettled next week but it should be warm enough for windy rain events.We'll have the December forecast next week. Latest model trends suggest a stormy month with frequent precipitation. While there will certainly be some cold days, the month should not be far below (or above) average. Much colder than last year!

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

 

WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Monday (11/21) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

The weekend has come and gone and the unseasonable warmth is LONG gone. What a change. The snow forecast that we issued on Thursday worked out pretty well.Forecast:Current snow depth (approximate):The weather map this morning sure looks like winter. Cold temperatures and a frigid wind.Temperatures will only move a few degrees today. A stray flurry; otherwise, cloudy, blustery and cold.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER

A calm day Tuesday with clouds breaking for some sun. Still chilly with highs near 40 but not as windy.Wednesday is tradionally one of the busiest travel days of the year. Locally, we expect some rain to push in by the end of the day. While there is an outside chance for mixed precipitation at the onset, I am not expecting travel problems across our region (other than wet pavement).On Thanksgiving Day, expect a cloudy and chilly day and there might be a rain shower. Temperatures in the 40s. Shopping Thursday night into Friday? Looks quiet weatherwise with dry, cool donditions Friday morning and maybe some rain showers by afternoon. Another busy day on the roads and at airports Sunday. Looks quiet weatherwise.

LONG RANGE

Late November and early December looks seasonably chilly and I think it will be an active weather pattern. Does that mean lots of snow? Only if the temperatures are right. Could mean plenty of chilly rains. We shall see.

WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Wednesday (11/16) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

LOTS to talk about again today. Let's get to it. Remember you will get another very detailed update this evening on Weather For Weather Geeks.Today won't be quite as nice as the last couple of days, but hey it's still warmer than average! There were a couple of showers/sprinkles early today but those are pulling east. Clouds will occasionally part for some sunshine today.Thursday will probably start with a deck of low clouds and/or fog but the afternoon will be sensational with sunshine and temperatures in the lower 60s.Friday: Amazing. The record is 72, set in 1958 and we may come within a couple of degrees of that. The afternoon will also be breezy to at times windy.

NOW THE EXCITING STUFF

Ok, the weekend. What a wild ride this will be. Our cold front will cross the Valley by midday Saturday and temperatures will start to fall off a cliff. Rain showers will be around for a while but I think it is cold enough for a changeover to snow showers by late afternoon or early evening.Strong winds and lake-effect/lake-enhanced snow showers will continue Saturday night into Sunday. There will be extreme instability over the lakes with the cold air blowing over the warm waters.

IMPACTS

It is too early for an accumulation forecast. Let's focus on the likely IMPACTS instead of numbers at this stage of the game.

1) Harsh wind and cold. Just like if it were January, use common sense; don't keep the pets out too long, etc.

2) Travel. Despite the ground being very warm, the snow can and WILL stick, especially in heavy squalls.

The snow will have no trouble sticking to the grass/roofs, decks, etc. During the daylight hours, it will have to be coming down HARD to stick to the roads. But at night, even more benign snow showers can stick to the pavement. Even in snow showers that do not cause much accumulation on the roads, the visibility can suddenly drop so take it slow.

3) School. I doubt there will be any school adjustments Monday but it's early in the game so stay tuned.

A general guideline of what to expect:

NEXT WEEK

Think there will be another system heading our way around Thanksgiving time but I suspect it will only bring some chilly rain. Not expecting wintry weather for holiday travel.  

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Tuesday (11/15) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Well...if you liked Sunday and Monday, you'll like today! It's another "rinse and repeat" day with a decent amount of sunshine and afternoon temperatures around 56-58.A minor weather disturbance will cross the region late tonight into tomorrow morning, bringing some clouds back in and only isolated sprinkles/showers. I suspect we see an increase in sunshine tomorrow afternoon.

BUCKLE UP!

After a beautiful, sunny Thursday with highs in the lower 60s, Friday will be even more amazing with temperatures approaching 70 and lots of sunshine. Wow!Notice the isobars packing together in the afternoon...it will turn breezy/windy.The weekend is going to be wild. A powerful cold front will cross the area Saturday and temperatures will probably fall out of the 50s and through the 40s. It will be quite windy. Rain showers can change to snow showers before the day is out.As the first truely cold air mass of the season pours over the very warm Great Lakes, lake-effect should get going in ernest Saturday night into Sunday. I expect the snow to be plentiful in the primary snow belts and in the mountains east of Pittsburgh.How much snow in the Youngstown area? Way too soon for numbers but it would not surprise me if some have to dust off the shovel. Lake-effect is fickle and you can get almost nothing while there is accumulation 3 blocks away.Here's just one run of one model. Ignore the numbers; I show this only to give you a sense of WHERE the highest totals are likely to be,The wind will be vicious Sunday and it will FEEL 45-50(!) degrees colder than Friday.Wintry conditions will probably continue into Monday but thankfully there are no winter-weather concerns for Thanksgiving travelers after Monday.

 2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Monday (11/14) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

What a weekend it was with loads of sunshine, cold, frost mornings but pleasant afternoons. Did you like Sunday? Today is pretty much the same day, maybe even a degree or so warmer. Highs today in the mid 50s.Quiet weather will continue Tuesday before a weak disturbance arrives late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Not much more than a passing shower or two with that.

BIG WARM UP

A strong southerly flow will develop Thursday and Friday and the result will be soaring temperatures. Friday will turn breezy to windy. Highs Friday 64-67!

BIG COOL DOWN

But then some big changes. A cold front will roll through the Valley on Saturday and this front will usher in the coldest air of the season so far for Sunday and Monday.Check out the temperature plunge:With the Great Lakes so warm, you bet there will be lake-effect snow....likely the first significant lake-effect event of the season.The primary snow belt areas (Chardon, Ashtabula, etc) could even get several inches out of this. It's possible that parts of the WFMJ viewing area get enough to cover the ground. It is MUCH too early for specifics beyond that.Just a model, NOT a forecast:Temperatures are likely to rebound back to about average for the Thanksgiving holiday.

WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Tuesday (11/8) Morning Weather Briefing

HAPPY ELECTION DAY!

Election day here in the Valley will be a pretty nice one considering it's early November. Not as bright and sunny as yesterday but still mild. Clouds will increase today but temperatures will still be 10-12 degrees above average.Showers will push in just after sunset. Futurecast loop:Look for a rainy evening but, again, before sunset rain chances are pretty low.Rain amounts through tomorrow morning are likely to average 0.15"-0.20".

THE DAY AFTER

The day after election day, assuming we have survived, will be quite a different day with temperatures holding in the 40s all day. Clouds can drop a shower or two, mainly before noon. A chilly breeze will make it feel even cooler.Thursday looks good with sunshine and temperatures back into the mid 50s. Nice November day.The next front will arrive Friday....very little moisture to work with some we don't expect much more than a passing shower. Quite chilly by the end of the day with a gusty breeze.

WEEKEND

A flurry or two will be possible Friday night and early Saturday. Otherwise, expect a quiet weekend. Chilly Saturday with highs in the 40s but Sunday will feature temperatures in the lower 50s by the afternoon.

LONG RANGE

Temperatures will rebound early next week but there may be a quick push of chilly air at the end of the week.  

WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Monday (11/7) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

What a weekend. The great weather continues today with loads of sunshine. We got off to a cold start but afternoon temperatures will be well into the 60s. Would not be surprised if the airport touched 67 or 68 today.November is obviously off to a very warm start, not only here but across the nation as a whole. Temperatures compared to average so far:Changes are finally on the way. Election Day will bring increasing clouds and a threat for showers toward sunset and as the polls close.In the wake of that front, we expect a brisk and colder day Wednesday with a shower possible, mainly in the morning. Temperatures mainly in the 40s Wednesday.After a tranquil Thursday, the next front will track our way for the end of the week....it'll be a strong one but will not be able to wring out much more than a shower on Friday.Brisk and cold for high school football playoff games Friday evening. There might be snow flurries seen across NE Ohio and western PA Friday night into Saturday morning. Not looking for anything more than cosmetic coatings on windshields and what not.Saturday will be the coldest day of the season so far with temperatures not much higher than 40 and wind chills closer to freezing.No measureable snow yet at the airport and we are overdue. The average date of first measureable snow is the 4th of November but as you can see there is quite a variance from year to year.Interesting that the latest date occurred in 1995. 1995-1996 is one of the "analog" years in our Winter Forecast. In other words, a year that we expect this winter to haver some similarities to. Speaking of which....

 WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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Wednesday (11/2) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Game 7 tonight. I am a ball of nerves today. Let's power through.A cloudier start to the day today but it will turn out to be a lot like yesterday. The record high of 78 is probably safe but we can get within a couple of degrees of it!But the crazy warmth will end after today. The reason? No surprise, a cold front is on the way. The rain associated with the front will be approaching Cleveland late this evening....unless the game goes extra innings I think it will stay dry during the game. But by 1-3am, rain will be advancing across northern Ohio and headed for the Mahoning Valley.Plan on a wet start to your Thursday. By midday, the steadiest rain will be pushing east and we'll be left with clouds and slowly falling temperatures. Afternoon temperatures will be about 20 degrees colder than today. There might be a few more showers or some drizzle late in the afternoon and evening.

QUIET FRIDAY AND WEEKEND

Tranquil, seasonable weather will resume Friday through Sunday. Friday will be chilly with highs only around 50. Somewhat milder ahead of a cold front Saturday but then a few degrees colder again for Sunday.

ELECTION DAY WEATHER

Looking quiet for Tuesday...no weather-related reasons to not get out and vote! Highs near 60.

LONG RANGE

While the core of the unseasonable warmth will be centered across central and western Canada and the central US next week, it will not be a "cold" pattern for us. A week of mostly seasonable to somewhat above average temperatures looks likely.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

Took one on the chin yesterday as the atmosphere really "overachieved"! 

WINTER FORECAST

This is the week! My Winter 2016-2017 forecast will debut on Thursday. Tune into 21 News at 6&11. A much more detailed version of the forecast will be posted right here.

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Tuesday (11/1) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

November has arrived...break out the shorts! A mix of sun and clouds again today with temperatures climbing up to between 70-73 degrees this afternoon. Enjoy!Tomorrow looks just as warm if not warmer as a warm front lifts north through the Great Lakes.DRY and WARM weather for Game 6 of the World Series this evening and, if neccessary, tomorrow evening as well.

COLD FRONT

The next cold front will push rain into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Plan on a soggy start Thursday:Most, if not all the rain should be gone by Thursday afternoon.Temperatures will fall Thursday so the high will occur early in the morning. The afternoon will be brisk and chilly....much different than Wednesday afternoon!The work week will end on a quiet and chilly note Friday; afternoon temperatures not much better than 50.

WEEKEND+LONG RANGE

The weekend looks tranquil as well. Temperatures in the 50s each afternoon. Daylight Saving Time ends Sunday morning at 2am.Election Day is a week away. We can start taking reasonable shots at the forecast for that day at this point. No bug weather makers are likely to be around. The European model depicts a weak front that might bring a shower. The GFS model is bone dry.Temperatures should be near average, in the mid 50s in the afternoon. 

WINTER FORECAST

This is the week! My Winter 2016-2017 forecast will debut on Thursday. Tune into 21 News and check out my blog/social media next week for details.

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Monday (10/31) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING AND HAPPY HALLOWEEN!

We are wrapping up another warm month today, one that will end up about 5.5 degrees above average locally. Much of the lower 48 states had a warm October:A nice Halloween today with high temperatures betwen 53-55. Lower 50s and upper 40s for trick-or-treaters this evening.Another shot of unseasonably warm air is in the way as we start November. Check out these highs over the next couple of days:Click to EnlargeWe will be dry both days.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE

No raindrops until very late Wednesday night into parts of Thursday with our next cold front. That front will put an end to the silly early November warmth.Quiet weather will return for Friday and the weekend. No concerns for wet weather as of now.The air mass behind the front will be cooler but certainly not much colder than average. Highs Friday through the weekend may even be somewhat warmer than shown on both of these models.Notice the chilly numbers that show up in the longer range. We are expecting the overall weather pattern to start favoring colder air over warmer air as we head deeper into November. Notice how different the pattern looks now vs what we expect in 2 weeks:No big deal, right? It's SUPPOSED to get cold in November. Well yes. However there is a chance that BEYOND two weeks from now the pattern turns MUCH colder and stormier. Our winter forecast will include a potentially stormy, cold period from Thanksgiving through New Year's. Speaking of which.....

WINTER FORECAST

This is the week! My Winter 2016-2017 forecast will likely debut on Thursday. Tune into 21 News and check out my blog/social media next week for details.

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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Thursday (10/27) Morning Weather Briefing

MORNING!

A gloomy start to the day across the Valley but we are about done with the wettest part of the day. At least we are not shoveling it! Snow is falling this morning in New York and NE Pennsylvania.Our hi-res futurecast shows the rain becoming hit/miss showers for the rest of the day:Hourly rain chances:Temperatures will peak in the mid 50s at midday then slowly fall with a gusty NW wind this afternoon.Friday looks much better with increasing amounts of sunshine. Great afternoon to rake some leaves and a cool, crip evening for high school football.

THE WEEKEND

Here comes the warmth! Saturday looks downright balmy with highs in the upper 60s and a gusty wind. Not much more than a passing afternoon shower.On Sunday, a very weak front will slowly sag south, leading to a chance for showers.

HALLOWEEN

Nothing scary about this forecast. A good deal of sun and seasonable temperatures expected.Then, WOW a warm day Tuesday. I think we have a good chance at highs of 70-74 degrees. Break out the shorts on November 1!

LONG RANGE

Back to seasonable weather later next week.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WINTER FORECAST

We are less than a week away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Tune into 21 News and check out my blog/social media next week.

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Wednesday (10/26) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Go Tribe!A cold start this morning as expected; some places had temperatures below 30 at the start of the day.It's going to be a struggle in the temperatures department today as clouds slowly thicken. We'll see highs in the upper 40s....well below average. Meanwhile, a warm front is off to our west:Ominous, right? Well a lot of that rain in western Ohio  is going to have a tough time reaching the ground in NE Ohio and western PA this afternoon, thanks to dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere. That said, we will have a 20% chance in the forecast for this afternoon as someone might see a shower or sprinkle.Overall, dry through this evening then rain will push in overnight. Hi-res futurecast:The start of game 2 has been moved up to 7:08 this evening, a good move although the latest model trends suggest that an 8:08 start may have been ok too. Rain chances will increase quickly in Cleveland after 11:00.Rain will be around late tonight and tomorrow morning with spotty residual showers in the afternoon. Temperatures will slowly fall with a chilly breeze tomorrow afternoon.Rain totals will average 0.3"-0.5".A better day Friday with a cool, pleasant evening for football.The weekend looks to start on a breezy, warmer note with a southwest wind. We have temperatures in the 60s in our forecast. Might be a shower late.That front may stall overhead Sunday, leading to a chance for showers.

LONG RANGE

Warm to start next week then a retreat back to average looks likely. 

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WINTER FORECAST

We are about ONE week away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Stay tuned for an exact date!

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Tuesday (10/25) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING....

An uneventful Fall day on tap for today with times of sunshine and times of clouds. A chilly one but not quite as blustery as yesterday.The sky will be mainly clear to patrtly cloudy for part of the night tonight, allowing it turn colder. Temperatures would drop even lower if not for some clouds moving in late.NO problems for Game 1 of the World Series in Cleveland tonight (other than it will be cold!). First pitch temperature in the upper 40s.Notice the chance for rain for Game 2 on Wednesday. A warm front will be lifting across the region Wednesday. There may be a little afternoon and early evening rain but I dfon't think that is a big deal.What can be more problematic for the game is the steadier rain that will likely move in as the evening progresses.So I can see a scenario where the game starts on time but there are delays later. Hopefully not a postponement.Rain will be with us overnight Wednesday night into early Thursday. Thursday afternoon looks drier but it will be blustery with falling temperatures.Rain totals of around 0.50-0.75" are likely. I like the higher end of our computer model spread here:

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

Friday will bring some sunshine back and it should be a nice, crisp evening for football.A quick but impressive shot of warmth looks likely Saturday ahead of the next cold front. I can see where temperatures get well into the 60s with a gusty breeze. Looks like we will be lowering rain chances that day too.

LONG RANGE

Mild readings to wrap up October and start November. Looking at a colder pattern by the 2nd week of the month.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WINTER FORECAST

We are about ONE week away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Stay tuned for an exact date!

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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Monday Morning (10/24) Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

It's a new work week and we have plenty to talk about. After a beautiful Sunday, today will be "less nice" with clouds much of the day. Temperatures this morning are within a degree or two of 50 in most spots and temperatures this afternoon will be....pretty much the same. What you see is what you get today!What about showers? I suspect most areas from Youngstown south and west will be dry. The farther north and east you go, the higher the likelihood of seeing a shower or two during the midday and afternoon. Some lake-effect rain shower activity, with a Lake Huron connection, will be aimed at far NE Ohio and NW PA.Futurecast:

MIDWEEK

A brighter day coming up on Tuesday (with clouds perhaps stubborn to break in Mercer County) and with a clear sky Tuesday night we probably have our coldest night of the season so far on the way. Lows of 27-32 will be common.Our next chance for wet weather will be Wednesday evening/night (with a warm front) and Thursday (with a cold front). Getting a little concerned about some wet weather for Game 2 of the World Series in Cleveland.The wettest part of Thursday is likely to be in the morning. A gusty breeze all day.

FRIDAY+LONG RANGE

Friday looks good. Seasonably chilly for week 10 of high school football.Rain probably returns with the next system on Saturday.I think October will end and November will begin with a mild weather pattern. 6-10 day outlook: 

WINTER FORECAST

We are about ONE week away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Stay tuned for an exact date!

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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Weather For Weather Geeks October 20

https://youtu.be/1XqWFBgvVPA

Wednesday (10/19) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING.....

As expected we had some showers overnight. A little appetizer with the main course coming later tonight through Friday. Some local rain totals:A nice one today with a good deal of afternoon sunshine. Temperatures remain on the mild side for the middle of Autumn.Clouds will increase this evening. A wave of low pressure along an old front will move northeast and the result will be a period of rain later tonight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow's forecast is a bit tricky as there could be substantial differences in the "flavor" of the day across our viewing area. I suspect a "dry slot" will move into the region during midday Thursday, allowing the rain to taper off and even end for a while. Temperatures can warm wherever the dry slot is. The most likely places for this will be south and east of Youngstown. So there may be a few hours where it's pretty decent outside with temperatures warming close to 70 in the East Liverpool area while Newton Falls, Kinsman, etc are stuck in clouds and the upper 50s.Where the dry slot opens up there might be a spotty thunderstorm or two that develops in the more unstable air. The Storm Prediction Center actually has a "marginal" risk for severe weather as far north as about Rt 30:Either way, everyone will get wet again as we go toward evening. Thursday evening weather map:The rain will continue Thursday night into Friday. Showers may become less numerous around football time but plan on bringing the poncho anyway.Rain totals through Friday can be around 2 inches on average. NWS forecast:Computer models:Need to rake? Take care of it today if you can!

WEEKEND OUTLOOK

Saturday will be November-ish with clouds, spotty showers and a cold, gusty wind. Still think there might be snowflakes seen in the higher terrain to our east. Highs Saturday near 50; it will feel colder.Sunday looks sunnier and more seasonable with highs in the upper 50s.

LONG RANGE

Fairly typical late October pattern next week. 6-10 day outlook:

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WINTER FORECAST

We are about TWO weeks away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Stay tuned for an exact date!

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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Tuesday (10/18) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Feels like summer out there this morning as overnight temperatures only dropped into the mid 60s. We are firmly situated in the warm sector of a system that is still well off to our west.Temperatures will race into the lower 80s this afternoon. Today's record high of 84 is safe but wow 21 degrees above average today.Notice on the map above the the isobars or lines of equal pressure are packed pretty tightly. We can expect a gusty breeze today. Some gusts can reach 25-30 mph.The first of 2 cold front will track our way tonight. The first one will be pretty weak and will bring spotty showers after sunset this evening. Although it will cloud up toward dinner time, you will have no trouble with raindrops during the daylight hours today. Simulated radar:

CHANGES ARE A' COMIN'

Wednesday will be a pretty nice day with some intervals of sunshine. It won't be quite as warm but still well above average!Then things go downhill. As a sluggish system moves east, rain will become likely Wednesday night into Thursday. There may even be a thunderstorm Thursday, especially south of 224.Tricky temperature forecast Thursday as it could be a day where the airport is stuck around 60 but southern Columbiana County is closer to 70.Rain totals through Thursday night can reach an inch and more is on the way for Friday.Plan on a MUCH cooler day Friday with showers and a chilly, gusty breeze.The weekend will start out chilly and cloudy with spotty showers. Temperatures not much better than 50 Saturday.There's blue on that map! Yes it's possible that the higher terrain (say above 1500') in west-central PA could see some snowflakes Saturday. Nothing unusual for October 22.

LONG RANGE

A much more typical late October pattern will settle in for next week with lots of days with highs near average. Models:

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WINTER FORECAST

We are about TWO weeks away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Stay tuned for an exact date!

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

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CONNECT: 

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