GOOD MORNING!
Today is a winner and easily the nicest day of the week. We’ll have sunshine in abundance with temperatures a couple of degrees above average. There will be a noticeable breeze as well. Highs:
A true autumnal air mass. Look how dry the air is….dewpoints in the 30s and 40s. You don’t see that in August!
HERE COMES THE UPPER LOW
From time to time an area of low pressure aloft “detaches” from the jet stream and “does it’s own thing”. We call these “cut off” upper-level lows. Well one of those is going to call Ohio and western PA home from tomorrow through at least the start of the weekend.
This means that our weather will be unsettled at times. Showers will visit on a few occasions Wednesday-Friday. There can be spotty afternoon thunderstorms on Wednesday as well. Cut-off lows are fickle and can do strange things sometimes. We’ll have to watch for “surprise” heavy bands of rain and even weak rotation in any storms. On the flip-side, pockets of dry air rotating around the low can give us extended periods where it is “not bad” out with some sunshine.
As the weekend arrives, this thing will still be in our hair so we have to allow for at least spotty showers Saturday. Sunday is the day it should start to move and there should not be much more than stray showers.
LONG RANGE
Next week looks warm for early October for everyone east of the Rockies.
I expect at least a couple or few days with highs 10 degrees above average.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
Looking to start a new streak today.
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MORNING!
What a weekend! A real treat after a long, hot summer and first few weeks of September. While this week will be unsettled at times, it will be comfortable overall. Let’s get to the details.
Today started fine but a wall of rain is heading our way this afternoon. This is with the cold front that will usher in the next round of cool air. Radar just before 9:00:
Hi-res futurecast shows rain is most likely between 1:30pm-3:30pm:
There is a chance for thunder with this. The chance of a heavy, gusty thunderstorm is highest to our southeast, where there is a “Marginal” risk for severe weather.
Rainfall totals today should average about 0.25″.
There is a distinct air mass change behind this front, check out the temperatures in the Plains this morning:
BEST DAY OF WEEK: TUESDAY
We’ll be behind the front Tuesday and the dreaded “upper low” that I will talk about in a moment will not have arrived yet. So a nice one with very comfortable temperatures; highs in upper 60s.
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM HELL
There is an old saying “upper level low=weatherperson’s woe”. There is a reason for that: upper-level lows are a pain. They tend to “be their own boss”, just meandering and making for difficult forecasts. Well this week one of these buggers is going to detach from the jet stream and meander around the region for 4-6 days.
What’s that mean for our weather? Well we have to allow for at least the chance for showers every day from Wednesday through the weekend. It will also serve to keep temperatures rather cool.
Wednesday is “arrival day” for this thing and our first chance for showers.
Thursday’s upper-level map shows our bowling ball just sort of parked over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
By Sunday it will not have moved all that much.
Bottom line: If you have outdoor plans Thursday through the weekend, be ready for at least SPOTTY showers. We’ll gain more confidence with respect to what days may be wetter than others as we get into midweek.
This will be our coolest stretch of the season so far. Still looks warm for at least a few days next week.
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HAPPY FRIDAY!
We have another warm one on the way today but some changes are on the horizon. We will remain south of a front today, allowing temperatures to get into the mid 80s this afternoon. It will also be rather muggy. 8am dewpoints:
Notice the drier air to the north of the front across the Upper Midwest. That is what will head our way for the weekend.
The front itself will come through unannounced tonight. No rain is expected. 7pm temperatures for those heading to a football game:
High pressure will build in for the weekend. Enjoy some great early Fall weather tomorrow and Sunday with highs in the lower and middle 70s.
NEXT WEEK
The models have been having HUGE struggles with next week’s pattern but finally today it looks like we have some agreement. A cold front will march across the Valley late Monday and Monday night, bringing a decent chance for showers.
Behind the front, an ACTUAL FALL-LIKE DAY for a change on Tuesday with variable cloudiness and a cool breeze. Temperatures are likely to stay in the 60s.
This will be a shot of “seasonably cool” air for a few days but as we have been saying, October is likely to start quite warm.
With this kind of pattern early in October, it will be more like early September.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
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GOOD TUESDAY MORNING…
Thankfully this morning’s fog was much more patchy and not as dense when compared to Monday morning. A sun-soaked day on the way today. The surface map shows a front to our west. The air overhead is already pretty dry with dewpoints in the 50s. The front will essentially wash out before reaching us but some modest additional drying out of the air will occur. This will result in a somewhat cooler night tonight.
REST OF THE WEEK: ZZZZZZZZZ
Sunshine will dominate through Thursday and part of Friday. Don’t forget, Autumn begins at 10:21am on Thursday. It will be a great day for a swim! High in the mid 80s through Friday. Clouds may increase toward Friday evening but we look dry for high school football.
WEEKEND
The weekend looks awesome as high pressure builds in. In the wake of a cool front, it will not be as warm, especially Sunday. There is a small (10-20%) chance for a shower Saturday.
LONG RANGE TRENDS
The long-range trends are coming into better focus. The last several days of September will feature some near-seasonable air for a change…that means highs generally 66-72.
Around October 1st, I expect a warm up. The highs shown on the models above may be too low by at least a few degrees during the first several days of October.
BTW, this may end up as the warmest September on record in Youngstown.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
We had a miss on Saturday (3 degrees off) after a streak of 34 days. New streak started!
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