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Chief Meteorologist Eric Wilhelm's Blog

Weather Forecasts, Analysis, Opinion For Northeast Ohio, Western Pennsylvania From 21 News Chief Meteorologist Eric Wilhelm

Tuesday (12/6) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Rain is on the way, right on schedule. Here’s what the radar looked like at 9:15am:

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Hi-res futurecast:

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A wet and cold afternoon. No longer all that concerned about sleet/wet snow mixing in. A few pellets possible but no big deal. Hourly rain chances:

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Rain totals around 1/2 inch today.

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Behind this system, a nicer day tomorrow with some breaks of sunshine for the afternoon.

ARCTIC PLUNGE #1

The coldest air of the season so far is still on track for late this week. Record cold? Unusual for December? No and no. But it will be windy and cold, yes.

Wind chills Friday morning:

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Snow showers will be most prevelant Thursday night and Friday and of couse will be mainly aimed at the primary snowbelt. Still think it’s possible that there are modest accumulations in northern Trumbull and Mercer. Stay tuned.

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By the start of the weekend, the lake-effect will be winding down and we should see some intervals of sunshine for the YSU game Saturday afternoon. Still cold though! Highs near 30.

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Sunday could be complicated. Possibly Monday too. Very low confidence in the forecast at the moment but precipitation in some form(s) seems likely. Mostly rain? Mostly snow? Not sure yet. Again, stay tuned.

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ARCTIC PLUNGE #2

An even colder air mass seems likely to visit during the 2nd half of nbext week. Gonna be a busy December!

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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Weather For Weather Geeks December 5

Monday (12/5) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Cloud Season continues on this Monday although the sky MAY brighten a touch this afternoon.

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Temperatures will be held mainly in the 30s once again today.

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TUESDAY’S RAIN

Low pressure will track toward the region on Tuesday, resulting in a chilly rain starting between 9-11am.

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Notice this computer model is showing all rain for us but I would not be surprised to see a few wet snowflakes and/or sleep pellets mixed in with the rain, especially when the rain is falling a little harder.

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Rain totals Tuesday will average 1/3 of an inch or so.

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After a calm Wednesday…..

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON

We’ve been talking about this for over a week and it will finally arrive later this week. This will not be record-setting cold and won’t be unusual for December. But it is the coldest air of the season so far and the kind of air mass that NEVER arrived during last year’s record warm December.

Snow showers and harsh winds Thursday and Friday.

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Snow will of course be most problematic in the primary snow belts downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario.

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Still, I would not be surprised if some need a shovel north of I-80 in our veiwing area.

Wind chills Friday no higher than the teens.

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Still cold Saturday but the snow showers should be less numerous.

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Temperatures are likely to recover early  next week before the next cold front arrives.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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CONNECT: 

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Weather For Weather Geeks December 2

Weather For Weather Geeks December 1

Thursday (12/1) Morning Weather Briefing

WELCOME TO DECEMBER!

Meteorological Winter begins today. Autumn was a warm one for the Valley, one of the warmest on record. In fact, we have had back-to-back warm Autumn seasons.

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December is our cloudiest month and of course it is the month with the least daylight. Here;s the Sun table for the month:

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We’ll lose another 12-13 minutes of daylight before the days start getting “longer”.

Today’s weather will be “eh”. Lots of clouds, cold winds and perhaps a sprinkle or flurry. Temperatures only rising a couple of degrees into the upper 30s.

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Tomorrow? Pretty similar. A somewhat better chance for flurries, especially late in the day and north of I-80.

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Saturday? You guessed it. Blustery and chilly with clouds and a flurry. Highs near 40.

Between now and Saturday, the snow belt and NW PA and SW New York can pick up some modest snow accumulation.

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We can see a little sunshine Sunday morning before clouds roll back in. There will be a weak disturbance that may try to give us a coating of snow late Sunday and Sunday night.

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NEXT WEEK

After a quiet Monday, rain is likely Tuesday.

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Then, the much-advertised shot of arctic air is set to arrive at the end of the week. The cold front will probably roll through Thursday. By Friday, wind chills could look like this:

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Single digits. Winter will have arrived.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:

2016-2017 Winter Forecast

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpg

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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CONNECT: 

Facebook

Twitter

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Wednesday (11/30) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

We had another round of rain overnight and early  this morning with modest totals once again:

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The big picture shows the steady rain pushing east. Severe weather continues in parts of the Deep South this morning:

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I think we will see spotty showers for the rest of the daylight hours today; much of the time will be rain-free. Rain chances go up again this evening along the cold front. Simulated radar:

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It is fitting that a mild November will end on a balmy note today with highs near 60. We certainly were not alone in the “warm November” club:

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Behind the front, December will start as Decembers often do in our part of the country: CLOUDY. This is our cloudiest time of the year. There may be a stray flurry or sprinkle Thursday. Temperatures will hold in the lower 40s with wind chills near freezing.

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Friday will be similar with perhaps a better chance for flurries.

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The flow will be somewhat favorable for a few lake-effect bands to get going, and this will be mainly an issue for NW PA.

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THE WEEKEND

Saturday looks…surprise! Cloudy, brisk and cold. There can still be random flurries around.

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Sunday may start with some sunshine but clouds will increase again. There is a chance for light precipitation, perhaps a rain/snow mix, toward the end of the day and into Sunday night.

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NEXT WEEK

A wild week. Temperatures will warm early in the week but a true arctic air mass will slide across the country by midweek. This much colder air should arrive here by the end of next week. The clash of the air masses may spin up a good snow storm for the Midwest. This is 8 days away, but here’s one idea of what next Thursday’s air mass may look like:

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Behind that front, the coldest air of the season is very likely.

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December forecast calls for an “average” month which is actually quite a change compared to last December and most of 2016!

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

calendar

WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:

2016-2017 Winter Forecast

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpg

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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CONNECT: 

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

Weather For Weather Geeks November 29

Tuesday (11/29) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Last night’s rain has come and gone and the radar is quiet this morning. It will stay that way all day.

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Rain totals were pretty modest last night, generally under a quarter of an inch.

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With a mix of sunshine and clouds, we expect a nice day today. Temperatures will be dependent on how much sunshine there is. Enough sun and it can get into the low 60s in spots.

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Round #2 of rain is on the way for late tonight and tomorrow morning. Wet at the bus stop Wednesday:

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By the afternoon the rain should be much more “hit or miss” but the threat of at least a spotty shower will remain in the forecast.

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DECEMBER STARTS WITH COOL DOWN

Cloudy and uneventful weather can be expected for the first day of the new month. It will be blustery and colder with temperatures holding about steady in the lower 40s.

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A weak disturbance could bring very spotty rain or wet snow showers Friday. Highs near 40.

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The weekend looks similar.

LONG RANGE

Notice the cold air shown on the model for the end of next week into next weekend.

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A true arctic air mass will invade the US for the first time this season next week (purple color). It will arrive in the Northwest and then ooze east. Looks like a cold few days for us but nothing earth-shattering for December.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

calendar

 

WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:

2016-2017 Winter Forecast

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpg

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

ezgif.com-video-to-gif

CONNECT: 

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

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