Weather For Weather Geeks January 18

GOOD MORNING!

We had a little more damp weather overnight and a touch of drizzle can still be found this morning. Over the next 24 hours, the radar can be a bit “deceiving” as it will look quiet even though drizzle could be falling out of a low deck of clouds. Notice this morning: no green on the radar but observations of drizzle are common (green boxes):

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Temperatures are in the upper 30s and they will stay there all day. A real “flat line” temperature trace today.

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Although not much drizzle will fall this afternoon, the data suggests that light rain/drizzle will probably return this evening. Notice the fairly deep layer of saturated air in the low levels of the atmosphere:

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Might have to watch for patchy fog tonight as well.

Thursday will be a nicer day….after a cloudy start we expect some midday and afternoon sunshine with highs in the upper 40s.

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A period of rain is likely on Friday but it will still be quite mild.

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THE WEEKEND

Near-record warmth is on the way for Saturday. The record high of 59 may be broken. We look to stay dry as well! Enjoy!

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On Sunday, that old boundary will come back north and this will lead to a good chance for afternoon and nighttime showers.

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LONG RANGE

The pattern will certainly shift toward more “average” mid-winter weather toward the end of next week and the end of the month. Does not look super cold but just back to what you expect at this time of the year.

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In case you missed this yesterday….winters are not getting “less snowy”, in fact just the opposite! This surprises many people who think the winters of the 70s and 80s were much snowier.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Tuesday (1/17) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING…..

As expected, a soggy night and we are off to a damp start this morning. Local rainfall amounts through 8:45am:

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Radar as of 8:55am showed spotty showers around the region; there has been some lightning near Sandusky. nowradd

Here’s the hi-res futurecast, showing not a LOT of activity this afternoon but spotty showers and areas of drizzle will remain a possibility.

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At least it is mild! Temperatures today soar into the mid 50s; the record high is 58, set in 1952.

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DAMP, COOLER WEDNESDAY

In the wake of a weak cool front, Wednesday will be about 15 degrees cooler than today (but still above average!).

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A lot of low stratus clouds overhead Wednesday and a little rain/drizzle can fall out of them occasionally. Might be some fog here and there as well.

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REST OF WEEK

A “dirty” high pressure system will move overhead Thursday. What does that mean? It won’t be as clear as it usually is with a high right overhead. Hopefully we will see some sunshine. A mild day nonetheless.

 

 

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Rain is likely Friday, mostly in the midday and afternoon hours as the next surge of unseasonably warm air heads in our direction.

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WEEKEND

I suspect Saturday is the better half of the weekend with not much more than a passing shower and temperatures in the 50s.

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Sunday may bring more substantial rain before the day is through.

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LONG RANGE

As we have been talking about, a colder, more typical temperature regime should arrive by the end of the month; we expect February to be much more like December.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

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Monday (1/16) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

It’s MLK day and many have the day off. What kind of day will it be? Well, “ok” I guess. Fairly cloudy but not that cold by this afternoon as temperatures rise into the mid/upper 30s. The weather map shows a warm front heading our way:

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Note the icy mess continuing in parts of the middle of the country. That warm front will lift into the Valley late today and there will be some rain showers around by dinnertime. 18 hour simulated radar:

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Rain is most likely from mid-evening through the overnight hours. As many head back to work and school Tuesday morning, I expect rain to dampen most areas.

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While the steadiest rain will occur in the morning, some drizzle/spotty showers can linger in the afternoon.

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Most short-range modeling gives us around 0.50″-0.60″ of rain through Tuesday.

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The NWS forecast is in agreement:

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Despite the rain,  Tuesday will be quite balmy with highs at least 20 degrees above average.

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I would not be surprised if a shower or two lingered into Wednesday but overall the day looks “less wet”.

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A calm day on the way Thursday.

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Rain looks to return ahead of the next system Friday.

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JANUARY THAW

Temperatures won’t even come close to average through the next week. This is the coldest time of the year climtalogicaly speaking (average high: 32) so this is quite a treat. Temperatures during the upcoming weekend are likely to reach the 50s again and it looks largely dry, especially on Saturday.

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Note the cool down toward the end of the month. There are strong signals that the final handful of days of January will bring a return to more typical mid-winter weather. The cold will overtake much of the lower 48:

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I think February will be colder and stormier.

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

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Wednesday (1/11) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

An eventful 24 hours has come and gone and today will be a calmer day. Black ice was a problem early this morning; even though air temperatures were above freezing, the recent frigid weather allowed for ground objects to get down to the freezing mark. Leftover damp areas turned a bit slick.

24 hour rain totals:

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This morning, the front that brought the wet weather has slipped south. BUT, the boundary will creep back north as a warm front later today, resulting in a return of the raindrops just after sunset.

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Rain will visit on a few occasions tonight into Thursday, but that won’t stop the temperature from going through the roof (by January standards). Readings should peak in the mid 50s Thursday.

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The cold front that will put an end to the warmth (for a few days anyway) will roll through early Thursday afternoon. We can’t rule out a rumble of thunder with this.

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Rain totals may be around an inch later today through Thursday. Short range models:

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NWS forecast:

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Thankfully it looks like the rain will end early enough on Thursday that there is a lowering concern for a freeze up Thursday night. Temperatures will drop below freezing fairly quickly, ending up in the 20s. Still, puddles in driveways/parking lots will probably make for icy spots.

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WEEKEND WEATHER

After a fairly sunny day Friday…..

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…the question will be, what happens to the moisture along that stalled front. Models have been trying to bring it back north on Saturday, introducing the possibility of snow and/or ice. The latest modeling is less bullish on this and I think the threat for ICE is dropping. I can’t rule out a small accumulation of snow Saturday. Latest GFS model keeps ALL of the moisture away Saturday:

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I will have another update on this later today. Sunday looks calm:

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LONG RANGE

Still on track for a very mild period next week into at least part of the following week.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

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