Weather For Weather Geeks April 21

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BLOG: Two Stormy Evenings Ahead

Good Tuesday morning,

After a period of quiet weather, things will turn active over the next couple of days. This includes the chance for some hefty thunderstorms and perhaps severe weather.

TODAY

This morning’s weather map shows a cold front on the move across the middle of the country.

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This front will sag into northern Ohio this evening. The air mass the front will be running into will be warm and moderately humid (by April standards) and this should result in some showers and thunderstorms cropping up. The TIMING is tricky as of this writing. Our two highest-resolution models have distinctly different ideas as to when storms are most likely. The HRRR model shows them around dinnertime:

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While the NAM holds the activity off until much later in the evening.

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What do I think? It’s a tough call right now because both models are doing a pretty good job depicting what is ACTUALLY occurring “upstream” in the Plains. So it’s hard to discount one of these ideas yet. We should have  a better handle on the timing by midday today. For now, let’s just say storms are possible starting late afternoon and taking us through the evening. Have outdoor plans? Check the forecast often today. It will change as we get new information.

Severe weather risk? This evening’s storms will have a modestly unstable air mass to feed off. Any of the taller, stronger storms could drop some small hail and have briefly strong winds. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of NE Ohio in the “Marginal” risk for severe weather.

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WEATHER NERD STUFF: This evening’s model “sounding” of the atmosphere over our heads shows some wind shear, which would help the storms mature.  A decent amount of instability is shown as well.

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TOMORROW EVENING’S THREAT

A HIGHER risk of severe weather exists tomorrow evening. That’s because our region will find itself firmly in some very warm, summer-like air tomorrow and then a fairly strong cold front will track into that air mass late in the day.

Highs tomorrow will be well into the 70s.

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Meanwhile, moisture-laden air will stream northward, making it feel even more like summer…especially in western and central Ohio.

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The atmosphere should turn unstable…quite a bit more unstable than today.

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The Storm Prediction Center has parts of the region in the “Slight” risk, a category higher than today’s “Marginal”.

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The primary threat locally will be damaging winds but there can be some decent size hail in the stronger storms. An isolated tornado can’t totally be discounted, although the risk is somewhat higher west of I-71.

 

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Timing: Most likely 7pm-11pm.

Severe weather reminders:

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BLOG: Easter Weekend Outlook

Easter is coming up this Sunday and this is certainly a holiday in which in the weather can impact many people’s plans.

First a little history. The last few Easters have been quite nice across our region with mild and largely dry weather:

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No extremes lately and nothing like the snowy start to the day we had in 1994. The date of Easter varies quite a bit, ranging from late March to mid April so the historical weather varies quite a bit too. No surprise that the coldest high temperature occurred when Easter was on one of the earliest possible dates for the holiday.

THIS YEAR

Another warm up is on the way for the weekend but it will come at a price. Saturday still looks like the warmer and drier of the two days although the warm front can still trigger spotty shower and thunderstorm activity.

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On Easter, a cold front will push in from the west, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms.

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SEVERE WEATHER RISK?

Right now the risk for severe storms does not look all that high, with perhaps higher chances in SE Ohio and SW PA. But I don’t want to take the possibility of heavier storms off the table yet, it’s still early.

TIMING

If you are planning your egg roll or anything else the weather can impact, here’s my first shot at hourly rain chances Sunday:

7am: 10%

8am: 10%

9am: 20%

10am: 30%

11am: 30%

12pm: 40%

1pm: 40%

2pm: 60%

3pm: 70%

4pm: 70%

5pm: 70%

6pm: 60%

7pm: 60%

8pm: 40%

Temperatures look warm all weekend. Sunrise temperatures on Sunday: gfs_t2m_b_cleveland_18

Highs will be in the lower 70s.