Search

Chief Meteorologist Eric Wilhelm's Blog

Weather Forecasts, Analysis, Opinion For Northeast Ohio, Western Pennsylvania From 21 News Chief Meteorologist Eric Wilhelm

MONDAY (7/25) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

That was a fast weekend, eh? The weather git (somewhat unexpectedly)  busy Sunday afternoon with a round of heavy thunderstorms during the middle of the afternoon. Scattered wind damage resulted. The good news: some much needed rain for many.

DMARain.jpg

Over the last week, beneficial rains have fallen, but not everywhere. Northern areas have done better than the southern half of the WFMJ viewing area.

RAINLAST7.png

This morning, it is warm, very muggy and quiet. A weak cool front is just off to our west:

now.png

As that front comes east today we look for very spotty/hit or miss-type showers and storms during the midday and afternoon. The storms will NOT impact as many people as yesterday. 15 hour futurecast:

hrrr_2016072510_ref_cleveland.gif

The severe weather risk is also lower than yesterday, but not zero. Any storm could get strong and gusty. The Storm Prediction Center has the Valley in the “Marginal” or low risk area today. Higher chances of severe weather to our south and east.

day1.png

understanding_categories

It will be very warm today, highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Heat Index values can be a few or handful of degrees above the air temperature.

highstoday

HUMIDITY RELIEF COMING

The cool front has NO cool air behind it but there is some drier air on the other side of the boundary. So we can expect dewpoints to retreat back into the upper 50s and lower 60s by tomorrow.

dewsDEWSREF

QUIET MIDWEEK

It will be warm, less humid and tranquil during midweek. Tuesday-Thursday looks like a rain-free stretch.

TUEWED

DAMP FRIDAY?

As is often the case in the medium/long range, there are some model differences regarding the next chance for rain Friday. There’s a small chance for a needed “wash out” kind of day, but more likely it will be a “scattered rain” type of day.

FRI.png

The weekend will NOT be as hot as the one we just had!

KYNG_2016072500_eps_min_max_15.png

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpg

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

ezgif.com-video-to-gif

CONNECT: 

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

YouTube

13055568_597321137088200_8881464765086220384_n.jpg

THURSDAY (7/21) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

Much like the last couple of days, today will feature plenty of sunshine….the difference is the temperature, which will spike to around 90 this afternoon. It’s the start of our much-anticipated heat wave.

highstoday.png

We will NOT have high humidity today as the real juicy air will remain just off to our west. So while it will be hot, the Heat Index will not be much different than the air temperature.

There are heavy storms across the Upper Midwest this morning:

NOWRAD.png

Along with a huge area covered by heat warnings and advisories:

WWA.png

Those storms, along the leading edge of the blast furnace, will weaken today but may re-fire tonight as the warm front pushes east. There is some concern about heavy storms being in the vicinity early Friday morning, as depicted on the NAM model:

hires_ref_cleveland_30.png

Will that be it for the day? It’s possible, although I would not be surprised to see spotty additional storms firing up in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has the region in the Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow. Severe weather risks include damaging winds and large hail but the overall chances for storms that strong are, well, marginal.

DAY2SPC.png

understanding_categories.png

LET’S TALK HUMIDITY

Friday is going to be very uncomfortable. Dewpoints will peak in the upper 60s to near 70. Unless we have a stormy afternoon, temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90, creating Heat Index values in the mid and upper 90s.

BUT, air subtle push of drier air will occur during the weekend. While the weekend will probably be HOTTER than Friday, it will NOT be as humid. Not that most people will care! It’ll be hot no matter which way you slice it.

Dewpoints:

DEWS.png

The weekend looks dry with only a small chance for a thunderstorm late Sunday. Higher chances Sunday night into Monday with a sluggish cold front.

SATSUNPMMON LONG RANGE

Warm, but not as hot pattern beyond  Monday. Pretty dry next week.

KYNG_2016072100_eps_min_max_15KYNG_2016072100_min_max_16

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

Our longest streak of the year continues!

Calendar.jpg

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpg

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

ezgif.com-video-to-gif

CONNECT: 

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

YouTube

13055568_597321137088200_8881464765086220384_n.jpg

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JULY 20

WEDNESDAY (7/20) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

An AWESOME start to the day today with temperatures in the lower and middle 50s at daybreak. Look for a sun-filled afternoon with low humidity and highs near yesterday’s value of 84.

Highs:

highstoday

In the meantime, the high heat is parked over the Midwest, for now. Oodles of heat watches, warnings and advisories:

WWA.png

The heat dome will remain centered over that part of the country but some of that hot, moisture-laden air will come east, starting tomorrow. We expect highs near 90 tomorrow although the dewpoints won’t crack 60 in most spots until tomorrow night.

thurs.png

FRYING FRIDAY

Friday will be our blast-furnace day. Probably the most uncomfortable day of that Friday/weekend stretch because the dewpoint will spike into the upper 60s to near 70. Heat Index values can get to around 100. This will make for a serious situation for sensitive groups such as children, the elderly and pets. As always…common sense applies.

fripmINDEXFRI

There can also be a couple of heavy thunderstorms Friday, mainly in the afternoon. This cold front is very weak but is running into a very unstable air mass. The Storm Prediction Center has the region under a “marginal” risk for severe weather.

day3.png

understanding_categories.png

THE WEEKEND

Aside from a very minimal chance for a thunderstorm each day, the weekend looks dry and hot with highs in the lower 90s. Dewpoints will not be quite as high as Friday, but high enough!

satsunpm

More seasonable air will return early next week.

KYNG_2016072000_eps_min_max_15

2 DEGREE GGUARANTEE

Our longest streak of the year continues!

Calendar

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpg

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

ezgif.com-video-to-gif

CONNECT: 

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

YouTube

13055568_597321137088200_8881464765086220384_n.jpg

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JULY 19

TUESDAY (7/19) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

Can you feel the change? It is certainly less humid outside this morning and we have a beautiful Tuesday unfolding. Highs near the seasonal average of 82.

day1.png

Meanwhile, the heat is building in the middle of the country.

wwa.png

Wednesday will be about the same, just a couple of degrees warmer. Dewpoints stay pretty low.

HERE COMES THE HEAT

The next change comes Thursday in the wake of a warm front. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and dewpoints will rise as well. There is a small (20%) chance that the warm front sparks a shower or thunderstorm.

thurs.png

The Thursday-Sunday stretch will be out hottest of the season so far and likely our hottest in FOUR years. We generally consider a heat wave to be 3 or more 90+ days in a row and that is in our Friday-Sunday forecast.

WAVE.png

TEMPSLAST5.jpg

A weak cool front may get close enough to spark spotty thunderstorms on Friday.

friday.png

The heat should peak on Saturday. Heat index values may approach 100.

sathighs

Models are consistent in showing the heat retreating early next week….back to just “typical” late-July conditions for us. Warm and humid.

KYNG_2016071900_eps_min_max_15

2 DEGREE GGUARANTEE

Our longest streak of the year continues!

Calendar.jpg

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpg

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

ezgif.com-video-to-gif

CONNECT: 

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

YouTube

13055568_597321137088200_8881464765086220384_n.jpg

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JULY 18

MONDAY (7/18) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

ROCKING START TO THE WEEK!

Well this morning’s storms have come and gone and they meant some business. Flash flooding occurred around Youngstown thanks to a quick 1.5″-1.75″ of rain. Other unofficial rain totals (some are obviously a bit off)

DMARain.jpg

Spotty power outages remained at 8:50am:

ohoutpaout

What about the rest of the day??? We have been advertising a chance for strong/severe storms in the afternoon but it looks like that threat is lowering quickly. Hi-res modeling shows little or nothing this afternoon and evening:

hrrr_2016071811_ref_cleveland.gif

We can’t rule out a feisty storm this afternoon but the chances appear to be quite low. Staying quite muggy today.

NICE MIDWEEK

Dewpoints will lower considerably Tuesday into Wednesday. A couple of nice, comfortable days with some sunshine.

weds.png

HOTTEST IN 4 YEARS?

The heat that we have been talking about for a while now is still on track to arrive late this week and weekend. We have not seen a temperature above 91 at the Youngstown-Warren airport since 2012. I think 92-94 is reachable Friday and Saturday. Heat Index values in the upper 90s.

KYNG_2016071800_eps_min_max_15KYNG_2016071800_min_max_16

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpg

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

ezgif.com-video-to-gif

CONNECT: 

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

YouTube

13055568_597321137088200_8881464765086220384_n.jpg

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JULY 14

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com. | The Baskerville Theme.

Up ↑

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 3,132 other followers