BLOG: WINTER STORM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

Good morning! The weekend ended on a slippery note with snow showers and plunging temperatures. Now the stage is set for the highest impact snow event of the season so far.A "big" storm? No. But, again high IMPACT because of the timing and nature of the system. Let's walk through it.

THE SETUP 

We have PLENTY of arctic air across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Temperatures are bone-chilling to start the day.currtemps.pngThe system that will bring us snow is actually HARD to find on the map this morning. That's because it is way up in Alberta, Canada.alberta.pngAs is typical of Alberta Clippers, this system will move very quickly south and east over the next 24 hours. It will be moisture-starved at first but will pick up some moisture once it gets over the Midwest.

TIMING:

Here's an animation showing the system moving from Canada through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through early Wednesday. Note the lake-effect setting up behind it. A clock is in the upper right.ezgif.com-video-to-gif.gifWe expect snow to begin around 1:00am Tuesday morning. Road conditions will deteriorate rapidly.1am.pngBy 7:00am it will be a mess out there and road crews will be working hard.7am.pngThe steadiest of the snow will wind down by midday. There can be scattered snow showers after that but the snow will not be as consistent and I would expect conditions to improve for a while. By late afternoon and evening, lake-effect will start getting organized. The wind direction off the lake will be favorable for bands to get pretty far south into our viewing area.4pm.png10pm.pngSo we look for additional accumulations from lake-effect Tuesday evening through the overnight. Most of this will be north of I-80, where some places can see another few inches. Even as far south as roughly Rt 224 there can be small additional accumulations and poor visibility for a while Tuesday night.

ACCUMULATIONS: 

During the "first part" (the non-lake-effect) tonight into tomorrow, we think a general 3" is pretty likely. Perhaps closer to 2" from around Rt 30 on south. Since blinding snow squalls can occur for a time around mid-morning, and these are notoriously hard to predict more than a couple of hours in advance, it's possible some places get another inch or so while others do not.most liely.jpgOur computer models are in fair agreement.ModelSnow.jpgAgain, a couple or few additional inches can occur Tuesday night with lake-effect, mainly north of I-80.

IMPACTS: 

This will be a high-impact snow event despite amounts being fairly modest. Expect school adjustments Tuesday and for many, Wednesday. Travel will be slow, especially Tuesday morning. We are not expecting many problems with power outages as they snow will not be super heavy/goopy. This will make it reasonably easy to shovel.Winter Storm Impacts.pngWind chills Wednesday morning will be -5 to -10.chills.pngMuch more throughout the day on social media, on 21 News at midday, 6pm and 11pm, wfmj.com/weather and your WFMJ mobile app. 

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Mornin!Another quiet one today with all the action out west. We will have a good deal of sun with high temperatures about a dozen degrees above average. This morning's national weather map:sfc.pngNot much arctic air across the Lower 48 this morning but the cold is building in northern Canada and is preparing for a US invasion.

cantemps.png

FRIDAY: 

A warm front will slowly cross the region and we expect some light rain from midday through the afternoon.frisfc.pngRain totals will be 0.10" on average. Heavier rain is likely Saturday night:ModelRain.jpg

SATURDAY: 

Not as bad day! Not a lot of sunshine but temperatures should be able to get up to around 50. Nothing more than a stray shower. Steadier, heavier rain is likely Saturday night.satsfcc.png

SUNDAY: 

Not such a nice day. Cold front will cross the Valley early in the day, leading to falling temperatures. Any leftover rain showers will give way to snow showers by afternoon. The wind will really start howling with gusts to 40 mph or so possible by afternoon.sunamsungustsSnow should not accumulate much; less than an inch on non-paved surfaces. That said, watch for slippery spots after sunset as temperatures drop below freezing and any wet/slushy areas freeze.

NEXT WEEK: 

Cold! Monday looks tranquil but a secondary arctic front could bring snow showers Tuesday.mon.pngtue.png

LONG RANGE:

The cold will ease for the last 10 days of the month. Sure, there can be cold days (it's January after all!) but there should be above-average days as well.cfs_anom_t2m_conus_2016010700_x101.png

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The long range looks volatile so we will try and sort it out this evening on "Geeks". Plus....much more on the rain and snow that will be tracking our way in the shorter range. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: 

Yesterday was an overachiever! Even warmer today.Calendar.jpg CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Happy Hump Day!Another benign day today as high pressure slides to our east. There will be some thin high clouds mixed with the sun. After another cold start (between 10-20 generally), we'll see temperatures get above freezing for the 1st time in 2016 this afternoon.TODAY.PNGmeteogram.jpgThursday will be similar, just a bit cloudier and a few degrees warmer.

FRIDAY: 

A warm front will lift across the region as low pressure cuts to our west. I don't think we are looking at much rain but there can be a period of light rain from midday into the afternoon.frisfc.png

THE WEEKEND: 

Saturday does not look bad at all. While there might be a passing shower, much of the day will be uneventful with mild temperatures. We can see 50 or so. satsfc.pngSunday is a different story. A strong cold front will cross the area in the morning and temperatures will start to tumble after a mild start. Rain will mix with and then change to snow showers as the wind picks up. It does not look like snow accumulations will be significant but we may have to be on the lookout for slick travel toward evening as damp areas freeze....with perhaps a coating of snow on top.sun12z.pngsun18z.png

LONG RANGE: 

If you've been paying attention over the last few days, you know that next week will be cold....the coldest of the season so far. Watch the cold oozing southward in waves over the next week or so.ezgif.com-video-to-gif.gifThe numbers on this chart are sure to be off by some degree....just pay attention to the trend. Cold next week with moderation by next weekend. The final 10-12 days of January is not likely to be all that cold.KYNG_2016010606_min_max_16.png

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

More on the Sunday situation on "Geeks" this evening. Also: a look at the modeling for next week....any signs of snow with the cold?? Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: 

5 for 5 to start the new year! Last year's accuracy rate was 73% (in other words, our forecast high for the next day was correct within 2 degrees 73% of the time) and we are aiming for 80% this year.Calendar.jpg CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Goooood morning,This morning got off to the coldest start since March 6 of last year (when it was below zero) with an official low of 5 degrees at the airport.Bright and sunny today but temperatures will struggle. At least the wind will be light with high pressure right overhead.today.pngndfd_t2max_cleveland_1.png

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: 

A couple of nice days with sunshine and some high, fair weather clouds. Milder air will make inroads and by Thursday we will see readings in the lower to middle 40s.

FRIDAY:

Low pressure will cut up through the Midwest. This is a storm track that drags milder air into eastern Ohio and western PA but there can also be some rain at times on Friday.friday.png

THE WEEKEND: 

Saturday looks balmy with highs near or above 50. While it should not be as wet as Friday, there will probably be a shower here and there.sat.pngSunday remains a tricky forecast. Arctic air will be surging into the region and if the cold front gets slowed by a wave of low pressure, there may be moisture hanging around as the cold air arrives. If that happens, we could see some wet snow Sunday. Stay tuned.sunday.png

LONG RANGE: 

While this week's cold shot is fairly brief, the arctic air will likely have more staying power next week. The polar vortex (which has resided, well, in the polar region for most of the winter) will splinter, allowing chunks of pure arctic air to spill into southern Canada and the US. This will begin Sunday with dangerously cold air making its way into the High Plains.sun300The air will, as usual, modify as it comes east but I suspect we will see at least a few days in a row with highs in the 20s (chance one of those days stays in the teens) next week. The lakes are wide open for business with little or no ice so it should be a lake-effect bonanza for the snow belts.KYNG_2016010506_min_max_16.pngMost signs point toward January 20-31 featuring variable temperatures but sustained cold like we should see next week is unlikely during the final third of the month.

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

This evening we will examine all our medium-range models to see how high the snow threat may be Sunday plus a more detailed look at why the final third of January is hard to figure out at the moment. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning and Happy New Year!The WFMJ viewing area appears to be done with any accumulating snow today as the lake-effect machine shuts down. The last band of heavy snow was near Akron at 8:35am:834The rest of today will feature steady and then falling temperatures. Readings will be in the teens by the end of the afternoon with some nasty wind chills to boot.Lows tonight will be into the single digits in parts of the region.lowston.png

MIDWEEK: 

A strong area of high pressure will drift across the Ohio Valley and Northeast Tuesday-Thursday, leading to quiet weather for us. A cold and sunny day Tuesday but then we expect a warming trend with southwest winds on the back side of that high.tues.pngweds.pngthurs.png

FRIDAY: 

Low pressure will track through the Midwest, dragging a warm front into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday. Some rain will likely break out.fri.png

WEEKEND: 

More showers are possible on Saturday with the approach of a cold front. Sunday could be unsettled as well.

LONG RANGE: 

The most significant cold shot of the season so far seems likely NEXT week. While there may be some lake-effect snow, no significant storms seem likely to accompany the cold.KYNG_2016010406_min_max_16.pngWill the cold "lock in"?? In other words, will it stay very cold for a while? There is no evidence to support that. Temperatures may be above average for much of the final 10-12 days of the month.

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

My in-depth, web-only weather video returns this evening and we will have a deeper look at the longer range....including next week's cold snap. Plus much more! Check it out....will be online by 8:00pm.CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

2015: THE YEAR IN WEATHER

2015 is nearly in the books and I'd like to take this opportunity to thank you for reading this blog, following me on social media and watching my forecasts on TV. It is much appreciated!2015 has been a remarkable year weather-wise in the Mahoning and Shenango Valleys with extremes in temperatures, rain and snow. I thought I would share my top 5 weather stories of the year.

#5: Another Pleasant Summer With a Lack of Extreme Heat

For the second year in a row, the warm season wasn't....well, all that warm in our part of the country. Sure, we had some warm days and sticky nights but long stretches of high heat and humidity were almost completely absent. The last 2 summers have been much different than many of the previous years.90s.jpg*A correction to the graphic above: We had 4 90+ days this summer, 2 in July and 2 in September.*Notice how many days featured below-average highs in June and July.junecal.pngjulycal.png

#4 EF0 Tornado in Hermitage Area on May 31

Late May and June was a stormy period across the Valley. On May 31st (the 30th anniversary of the 1985 outbreak) a tornado touched down briefly in the Hermitage area, causing damage to a Sheetz station and flipping a vehicle. Trees were uprooted as well. There were no injuries. Maximum winds were estimated to be 80 mph.hermcaref0.png

#3 VERY Wet June in the Valley

June brought several rounds of thunderstorms and some other heavy rain events. Trumbull County was particularly hard hit. The airport picked up about 9" of rain, making it one of the wettest Junes (and ANY month, for that matter) on record.Wettest Junes.pngWettest Months of All Time.pngjunerain1.pngjunerain2.png

#2 El-Nino Fuels a Record Warm December

We are finishing up a REMARKABLY warm final month of 2015. It El Nino totally to blame? No, but it was a lot to do with it. El Nino (the warming of waters in a certain part of the Pacific Ocean) causes fluctuations in the jet stream that can often favor warmer-than-average weather in our part of the country in winter (especially early winter). The effects are most pronounced when it is a STRONG El Nino and this year's is the strongest on record.Temperature anomalies for December across North America:ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom.pngThe coldest high temperature this month? 31. Only 2 other Decembers on record had a "lowest high temperature" that warm. 2011 and 1931.Calender.pngOf course, November was quite warm as well. All this warm weather means the snow season is off to a VERY slow start. In fact, this is the least amount of snow through December 31 on record at the Youngstown airport.snow.png

#1 Record Cold February

After a mild and mainly snow-free December, winter kicked in during January and did not release us from it's icy grip until the end of March. Things peaked in February, when temperatures rarely made it above freezing and some nights featured lows of -10 to -20. The calendar view is pretty amazing to look at:febcal.pngI mean, look at  that stretch from February 9-28! 20 consecutive above-average days. No above freezing temperatures from the 12th through the end of the month. Only January of 1977 was colder.The expanded set of February stats shows that it was a snowy month too, although we didn't have a "whopper" at any point. 7" on the 1st day of the month was the biggest one day total. There was a healthy snow pack on the ground all month. Many did not see grass until the 2nd week of March. feb.png

The Year in Temperatures, Precipitation

It was a year of bookends. The year start brutally cold, was very warm at the end....and the middle was pretty average.2015 Temperature Departures By Month.pngThe precipitation numbers are skewed by the very wet month of June. Drier than average months actually outnumbered wet months but we will finish the year with a 5+" surplus.2015 Precip Departures By Month.png

Thanks for reading and Happy New Year! Wishing you and yours a healthy and prosperous 2016.

-Eric

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning!This will be a quick one as the weather looks very quiet over the next week or so. The big story in the next few days will be a rare appearance by WINTER as temperatures will actually be appropriate for the season for a change.I thought we could try to squeeze in some sun today but I am not as optimistic this morning. Best chance to see some brightening at midday will be south of Rt 30. Model cloud cover:ezgif.com-video-to-gif.gifThat said, temperatures will still be above average today with highs 40-43.d1highsThere is a small chance for a sprinkle or shower this afternoon.The cold air out west will migrate east over the next few days 8am temperatures show the chill:currtemps.pngHighs tomorrow and on New Year's Day will be noticeably colder.d2highs.pngnyshighs.pngLots of clouds to end 2015 and start 2016 but not much more than a flurry.Saturday will be a sunnier, nicer day. There might be some flurries Sunday afternoon.LONG RANGE: A mild January week next week with high temperatures running around 7-10 degrees above average for much of the week. No big storms in sight!KYNG_2015123006_min_max_16.pngWEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will be online by 8pm and tonight I will preview my "Year in Review" post that will go online tomorrow. I have picked the top 5 weather stories of the year for our region. We'll see if you agree with my choices! Also tonight: an update on the possible pattern change later in January....which is NOT a lock to happen....yet.CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning!After a rainy, cold, windy Monday and Monday night, things will be somewhat better today. Not much more than spotty drizzle/showers through midday and then clouds and slowly falling temperatures. This morning's surface map shows fairly benign weather:sfc.png There's plenty of cold air out west and some of that will finally be heading our way in the coming days.TEMPS.pngBefore we move on to the forecast, a few words about the past. I will do a full 2015 Year in Review tomorrow or Thursday. For now, it looks like a lock that December will be the warmest on record in Youngstown.dec.pngWith no measurable snow likely through the 31st, we should hold the record for the slowest start to the snow season (through 12/31) on record with only 1.2" at the airport.snowThe contrast between the extreme (cold) weather that we had at the start of the year and the end (warm) of the year is amazing.WEDNESDAY: A tranquil day tomorrow with highs in the mid 40s. There might be a passing sprinkle or shower in the afternoon. This will be the last "mild" day for a while.wedspm.pngNEW YEAR'S EVE/DAY: The arrival of seasonably cold air will be accompanied by some lake-effect snow in the snow belts. Probably not a big event but enough to shovel for some. For the WFMJ viewing area, not much more than spotty flurries. The temperatures at midnight on January 1, 2016 will likely be around 30-32. Highs on Friday will not be much warmer than that.thurs.pngfri.pngSnowfall through Saturday, based on the GFS model:gfs_6hr_snow_acc_ma_19.png SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Good news for holiday travelers as the weather looks quiet with not much more than a flurry.LONG RANGE: So, it will turn colder at the start of the year, but does it last?? Well, not really. Think the pattern will once again favor milder-than-average temperatures for next week although it will not be nearly as warm as it was around Christmas.KYNG_2015122906_min_max_16.pngBut there are indications that January will end up being MUCH closer to average overall in the temperature department. One of the things we watch is something called the "arctic oscillation". When it goes negative, shots of cold air are "allowed" to come into the eastern US more frequently. It is shown to be negative for much of the first half of January.ao osc.pngOur January forecast, issued around November 1, called for near-average temperatures for the month of January (as a whole). This forecast may not need to be tweaked much. After a December temperature anomaly of +12, a near-average January will certainly FEEL colder!WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will be online by 8pm and will focus on the longer range since the short-range weather will not be all that active. We'll take a look at the factors in play for January and February. Might even talk about how NEXT winter should be much different!CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning! I am back at it after some time off for Christmas.This will almost certainly go down as the warmest December on record in Youngstown but before the year is out we will have a small taste of wintry weather today and again on Thursday.On the weather map this morning we have a major storm system across the South. It is producing more severe weather with multiple Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings up as of this writing.SFC.pngOn the north side of the system, there is an area of rain, snow and mixed precipitation. That blob is heading our way and today's bit question is....what type of precipitation will wee see this morning and early this afternoon?? It will just be rain later but in that window around midday we will have some sleet and even freezing rain around the Valley.15 hour futurecast:hrrr_2015122811_ref_cleveland.gifWhile I do think some rain can fall with temperatures almost right at 32 late this morning and early this afternoon, the IMPACTS are not likely to be significant locally. This is not an ICE STORM. Road temperatures are above freezing. I would expect most things to be just wet. There can also be some SLEET mixed in for a time.A reminder: sleet is a snowflake that melted and then refroze on the way down. Like tiny hailstones. Sleet does not typically cause travel headaches unless it is especially heavy.To the east of I-79 and also in NW PA, temperatures at and just above the ground will stay at 32 or lower longer and so freezing rain is more of a concern. That's why Freezing Rain Advisories are up for those locations.WWA.pngCaution is advised if you will be on I-80 or I-79 east and north of Mercer County today.TUESDAY: Just plain rain with rising temperatures tonight and early Tuesday. But Tuesday afternoon we expect nothing more than a passing shower, along with mild temperatures.TUES.pngWEDNESDAY: A pretty uneventful day with cooler (but still above-average) temperatures. There might be a shower around.WEDS.pngNEW YEAR'S EVE AND DAY: Colder, more seasonable air will arrive at the very end of 2015. The Great Lakes are wide open for business so I would expect some flurries locally and lake-effect snow showers in the snow belts. Temperatures will be mainly in the lower and mid 30s during the day. At midnight: upper 20s.THURSPM.pngFRI.pngLONG RANGE: Seasonable weather will hang around for a few days and then the pattern will (once again) favor mild temperatures. No extreme cold seems to be on the way during the first half of January.KYNG_2015122800_min_max_16.pngWEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: This evening's video will take a deeper dive into the weather for New Year's and we will check in on the latest trends for January and even February. Love snow or have a business that depends on it?? Be sure and watch tonight's video! It'll be online around 7:30-8:00.CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning and welcome to (astronomical) winter. Starting tomorrow....longer days!A quick review of Autumn.....it was warm! No shocker there. In fact it was the 2nd warmest Autumn on record in Youngstown.AUTTEMPS  Today started with a soaking rain across the region. The radar around 8:00 am was lit up with downpours:2015-12-22_7-54-15.pngRain totals over the last 24 hours are near an inch in parts of the region:DMARain.jpgThe rain comes with a moisture plume that is pretty unusual for December. Dewpoints are in the 50s and it feels "humid" for this time of the year.DEW.pngThe rain will clear out around midday today and we can even get some sun this afternoon.hrrr_2015122211_ref_cleveland.gifHighs will be in the middle and upper 50s....almost 25 degrees above average. And we are just getting started.WEDNESDAY: As the anomalous air mass continue streaming north, showers will break out again Wednesday, especially in the morning and midday hours. This simulated radar off the NAM model takes us from this morning through Thursday morning:ezgif.com-video-to-gif.gifWe can't even rule out a thunderstorm Wednesday and there is a pretty decent risk of severe weather to our south.DAY2.pngHighs on Wednesday can get into record territory (current record is 61).WEDSHI.pngCHRISTMAS EVE: The models have been speeding up the progress of a cold front on Thursday and this means showers will probably clear out pretty quickly in the morning. Thursday morning will be remarkably warm and we may actually be near the record of 63 EARLY in the day. Temperatures will kind of level out between 58-62 from there...will be a nice afternoon!THURSHI.pngCHRISTMAS DAY: The best day of the bunch! It will be "cooler" but still well above average with some sunshine.FRIDAY.pngTHE WEEKEND: Back to rain. Front will get hung up around the region and the weekend may be a borderline washout. Still mild...especially Saturday.SAT.pngSUN.pngLONG RANGE: Pattern will evolve into one featuring a ridge along the West Coast and a weak trough over the Great Lakes. This will promote much more "reasonable", seasonable weather for us as we ring in the new year. Not harsh cold but much closer to average. This pattern is not likely to dominate January though...we expect a warmer-than-average month overall.GEFS.pngCFS.pngKYNG_2015122206_min_max_16.pngThanks for reading and Merry Christmas to you and yours! The daily briefings will return on Monday. CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning!Rain moved through overnight and it's still damp across the region this morning. The radar around 9am showed the steady rain pushing away:DMARadar.jpgRain totals were pretty modest.DMARain.jpgClouds will break for some sunshine from west to east during the midday and afternoon.ezgif.com-video-to-gif.gifTemperatures are as warm as they will be all day and we expect readings to be in the upper 30s by sunset.FRIDAY:  Cold! For a change. Chilly northwest winds, clouds and even a flurry or two. Will feel like......December.fri.pngndfd_t2max_cleveland_2.pngSATURDAY: Even colder! The lake-effect machine will fire up as the cold air blows over the warm Great Lakes. Snow will accumulate several inches in parts of NW PA and SW PA and even parts of NE Ohio.sat.pngwwandfd_snow_cleveland_10.pngSUNDAY: The cold air will get the boot after only visiting for a couple of days as a southwest wind develops. A nice afternoon with highs in the lower 40s.sun.pngNEXT WEEK: The warm up will continue! But there will also be rain at times Monday through Christmas Day.mon.pngTemperatures will soar to 60 or so by Wednesday and Thursday. Christmas Day MIGHT be colder but might also be quite warm....right now I like a compromise with a forecast of 50-55. Balmy!KYNG_2015121706_min_max_16.pngWEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: On this evening's video....much more on the lake-effect, travel weather in the days leading up to Christmas and an update on what the models are showing for Christmas Day. Plus....a look at the climate models for January. Will the warmth continue??  CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning!A cloudy start today but the low clouds will thin from south to north over the next several hours. There will be some high, thinner clouds mixed with the sun today but overall a nice afternoon! We'll get back into the lower and mid 50s.ezgif.com-video-to-gif.gifTHURSDAY: Cold font will slowly roll through and rain will be here in the morning and midday hours. Should see clearing from west to east in the early and mid afternoon.thursrad.pngModelRain.jpgTemperatures should start to fall after a midday high.FRIDAY/SATURDAY: December! Cold! Wind! Even some snow! How about that. Friday will feature some flurries here and there with highs a bit above freezing. Lake-effect snow will accumulate several inches in the primary snow belt of far NE Ohio, NW PA  and SW NY into Saturday. Do not think this is enough to shovel in our viewing area.fridaysfcc.pngsatsfccsathightemps.pngSUNDAY/EARLY  NEXT WEEK: The mild air will make a big time comeback. After a nice Sunday, there can be some showers Monday. LONG RANGE/CHRISTMAS: Some serious warmth is very likely as we head toward Christmas, although Christmas Day may be cooler.Christmas Eve/Christmas Day breakdown as it stands now:High Confidence: -Temperatures will be WAY above average Christmas Eve. 60 or so is possible.-There will not be snow.-There will be rain at times from the 23rd through Christmas Eve.Medium Confidence: -While there will be rain at times, not sure yet when it is MOST likely.Low Confidence: -A cold front may usher in "less warm" air for Christmas Day, knocking temps back into the 40s. But it could still be in the 50s too. Lots of model disagreement right now.Don't rely on a crappy smartphone weather app for your long-range Christmas outlook, in which the forecasts are 1) computer generated and 2) based on one run of one model.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: On this evening's video, we'll re-examine the Christmas weather setup with fresh models and all that good stuff. Also, a look at travel conditions for this coming weekend...which will be very busy at the malls and on the roads!2 Degree Guarantee: The temperature wasn't expected to rise much yesterday but it didn't rise AT ALL! Come on atmosphere, give us ONE degree!Calendar.jpgCONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good Tuesday morning,After a weekend of record temperatures and a tie of the record high yesterday, today will be kind of "ho hum" with lots of clouds. Sure, it will be cooler but still 10 degrees above average!GOES13302015349Xm8NBc.jpgday1hi.pngWEDNESDAY: The day probably starts with some clouds but I think the afternoon will be very nice with some sunshine, a southwest wind and temperatures making it into the 50s. Enjoy!wednesdayy.pngTHURSDAY: The next cold front will arrive late Wednesday night and Thursday morning and we expect some showers with it. Most of the rain will probably be before noon Thursday. Temperatures may fall after a midday high.thurs.pngFRIDAY/SATURDAY: Well well well. Hi December! Nice to see you finally. Cold air will set up shop for a couple of days an it will be accompanied by some wind as well. Flurries will fly Friday, mainly in the afternoon. The lake-effect snow machine will eventually fire up and should drop several inches of powder in the snow belts of NE Ohio, NW PA and SW NY.fri.pngsat.pngIn the WFMJ viewing area, I would not expect much out of this. As is typical in these types of lake-effect events, far northern Trumbull and Mercer counties have the best chance of getting enough snow to measure.gfs_6hr_snow_acc_ma_22.pngLONG RANGE/CHRISTMAS: Temperatures will start to rebound as early as Sunday. Then the air mass will REALLY warm as we get into next week.Christmas Eve/Christmas Day breakdown as it stands now:High Confidence: -Temperatures will be above average. Even WAY above average.-There will not be snow.Medium Confidence: -There will be rain sometime in the 12/23 to 12/25 period.Low Confidence: -Not sure about record warmth yet.-Not sure of the timing of rain/which days it is most likely.-The warmth may actually peak on Christmas Eve with Christmas Day turning somewhat cooler.Don't rely on a crappy smartphone weather app for your long-range Christmas outlook, in which the forecasts are 1) computer generated and 2) based on one run of one model.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: On this evening's video, I plan on taking a deeper dive into the lake-effect set up late this week into Saturday (lots of people on the roads Saturday!). And of course, look for more analysis of the potential warm and wet Christmas in the Valley.  All on the Valley's most in-depth and geeky weather video! Look for it by 8:00pm.2 Degree Guarantee: Quick correction to the graphic: high was 62 yesterday. Still good enough for a green check. We need to add more of those checks, it has been a tough month for forecasters so far.CalendarCONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning!After a remarkably warm weekend, today will turn wet but with record temperatures once again.nowsfc.pngIt's a strong low pressure area that is pushing across the Upper Midwest.natlsc.png15 hour futurecast shows the rain arriving around midday:hrrr_2015121412_ref_cleveland.gifWe can't even rule out a rumble of thunder this afternoon. Temperatures are already very warm this morning and the record high of 62 should fall easily today.daystodayy.pngAll the locations that are circled should break record highs today.recs.pngIt will also turn windy later today with some gusts to 40 mph or so possible.TUESDAY: In the wake of the cold front, it will be "cooler" tomorrow but still WAY above average! We look for clouds and breaks of sun.tuessfcc.pngday2.pngWEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: After a mild and tranquil Wednesday, a weak wave of low pressure and a cold front can bring a little rain Thursday.thurssurfc.pngFRIDAY/SATURDAY:FINALLY! It will feel like December for a couple of days. Gusty winds, clouds, and yes...some snow showers/flurries. Highs in the lower 30s. How about that!At this point I doubt we see much snow accumulation locally but there can be frisfcccc.pngsome in the snow belts.satsfcccc.pngLONG RANGE: Wow. We may do the current pattern AGAIN. There is a very strong signal for warmth on the models for Christmastime. Have a look at the numbers on the GFS ensemble model:KYNG_2015121406_min_max_16.pngAnd all the warmth across the eastern US:gefs_t2ma_1d_noram_51.pngOur warmest Christmas occurred during the warmest December on record, 1982. The high was 66. We may very well challenge that record this year.We will absolutely not have a White Christmas. Sorry snow lovers! WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: More on the cold shot that is on the way later this week on this evening's "Weather For Weather Geeks". We'll also look at how Christmas week will compare to Christmas 1982. (BTW, Christmas 1983 was our COLDEST on record) All on the Valley's most in-depth and geeky weather video! Look for it by 8:00pm.CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

FRIDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

TGIF!Here comes the heat! First off, no records today but still a solid 20 degrees above average with highs in the upper 50s this afternoon. There will be a mix of sunshine and clouds.highssfriday1.pngTHE WEEKEND: A lot of low-level moisture around on Saturday and we can expect a little rain or just drizzle on a few occasions. The clouds and damp weather make it even more remarkable that we will see temperatures rising into the 60s.sfcsat.pnghighssatt.pngrecssat.pngOn Sunday, we will be well south of the warm front and the flood gates will be wide open to air that originated along the Gulf Coast. Our current forecast is 67 but I would not be shocked to see 68 or 69. The old record of 60 has NO chance of surviving!sfcssun.pnghighsssun.pngrecssun.pngBu the way the warmest December day on record:72, set on December 3, 1982. That December also featured our warmest Christmas Day on record, 66 degrees. December 1982 occurred in the middle of a strong El Nino....much like this year. Warmest December days in Youngstown:recwarmMONDAY: Pretty strong low pressure will cross the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front through the Valley in the morning. Showers will be most numerous early but the wind will howl all day. There can be some gusts to 45 mph or so. There is also a chance for a morning thunderstorm!sfcmon.pnggustsmon.pngLONG RANGE: It won't be AS warm Tuesday and Wednesday but still well above average. We do think that there will be *actual* December weather for about 2-3 days at the end of next week and early in the weekend. Can have some highs in the 30s and some snow showers.KYNG_2015121106_min_max_16.pngIt will be a brief shot though as the week of Christmas is looking ABOVE average once again...making our chances of a white Christmas pretty low. 2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: Have been stinking up the joint lately. These abnormal patterns are tough and cloud cover is often the key. If it's a bit sunnier than expected, the temperature can jump suddenly. If it's a bit too cloudy, your warm forecast can bust.Calendar.jpg WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: I plan on talking about Monday's situation in more detail in tonight's video....plus a more thorough breakdown of the up and down pattern that will take hold during the final week before Christmas. All on the Valley's most in-depth and geeky weather video! Look for it by 8:00pm.CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning!Had some issues with black ice in Mercer County, PA this morning; there was likely some very shallow fog around that led to moisture freezing on surfaces.Today is off to a fairly sunny start but we expect more clouds later as a weak system track our way.thisamThis thing is moisture-starved so there won't be much rain with it....a shower here and there and maybe not much more than sprinkles in spots. This will be late this afternoon and this evening. 15 hour futurecast:hrrr_2015120913_ref_cleveland.gifHighs today will be warmer than yesterday and a good dozen degrees above average.todayshighs.pngTHURSDAY AND FRIDAY: A couple of uneventful days to close out the work week. The big story will be the temperatures, which despite a weak sun angle and some clouds will be WAY above average.thurshightempss.pngFriday's record high of 61 is probably safe but we may try to get within a few degrees of it.THE WEEKEND: What's remarkable about Saturday is that it should be dead overcast, will rain some and we will STILL be near or above a record high! The record high is 60 Saturday. A warm front could bring drizzle/spotty showers, especially in the morning and midday hours.satsfccI think Sunday will be brighter, breezier and even warmer. We have a chance to obliterate the record high of 60 if we get enough sunshine.sunsfcc.png I suspect we will remove the chance for rain from Sunday's forecast and push it back to Sunday night and Monday as the models are finally in fairly good agreement on the timing of this next system.Look at Sunday's forecast highs!sunhightempss.pngRecord highs are likely in many spots across the region:ndfd_record_hi_ma_5.pngMONDAY: All good things must come to an end and Monday should be a soggy one....with colder air to follow.monsfcc.pngThere might even be a thunderstorm Monday.LONG RANGE: The air mass behind Monday's system will be, AT WORST, just average for mid-December. I suspect a lot of the numbers in the longer range are too cold on this chart and the prospects for a White Christmas are certainly looking "meh" as it stands today.KYNG_2015120906_min_max_16.png2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: These very warm temperatures are sometimes hard to keep up with but we'll be doing our best to add the green checks in the coming days.Calendar.jpg WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Wednesday evening edition of the Valley's most detailed weather video will be online between 7:30-8:00 this evening.  More on the threat for thunder with the next system, more detailed starts on the remarkable weekend warmth and a look at the REAL long range....all in tonight's video.CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning,After a foggy! weekend, this week will be tranquil overall and temperatures will become the real story as we head into the weekend.Today, an upper-level disturbance is overhead but you would not know it by looking outside as the weather is quiet locally. The showers to our south will stay to our south.500MCURRARWith a partly to mostly sunny sky, temperatures will be above average this afternoon.MONHIGHSS.pngMIDWEEK: Another quiet day Tuesday with highs mainly in the 40s again. On Wednesday, a quick-moving system will spread some showers our way in the afternoon and evening. If the air mass was 20 degrees colder, we'd be talking about an "Alberta Clipper" and 1-3" of snow. But....it's not.WEDSSURFF.pngA warm front will lift across the region Thursday and we have a good shot at 50 degrees or higher both Thursday and Friday.THURSSURFF.pngFRIHIGHHS.pngWEEKEND: While the timing of any precipitation is up in the air, we are confident record high temperatures will be challenged and (especially Sunday) probably broken. The record high is 60 Saturday and Sunday.SATGFSHIGHS.pngSUNGFSHIGHS.pngLONG RANGE: It will turn colder early next week, but characteristically of the pattern over the last couple of months, it will not last long. We expect above-average temperatures for much of the run up to Christmas.LONGRANGE WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Monday evening edition of the Valley's most detailed weather video will be online between 7:30-8:00 this evening. Check it out for the latest on the weekend warmth, the long range and the odds of a White Christmas. CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning! Will keep this brief as I am still "under the weather". (If I has a nickel for every time I've heard that joke....)As expected, last night's snow was no big deal with some coatings here and there. Today we are left with dull, gray, drippy, droopy conditions with lots of clouds and nothing more than a sprinkle or a flurry.thisam.pngTHIRSTYHUGHS.pngFRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: High pressure will drift overhead and stay for a while. Friday will start with clouds but some afternoon sun is in the forecast.fripmsfc.pngThe weekend will be sunny and mild with highs in the upper 40s to around 50. LONG RANGE: Very quiet next week as the mid-December warmth is still on track. Record highs late next week and next weekend are mostly around 60 degrees and they may be challenged a few times! Highs near 60 in mid-December? I like it.KYNG_2015120306_min_max_16.pngBTW, those numbers are off the "ensemble" version of the GFS model (ensemble model: a model which is tweaked and rerun several times) and if the ensemble is showing temperatures that much above average (or conversely....below average) in the long range, it gives us very high confidence in the trends.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: If my voice holds up, The Valley's most detailed (and geeky) weather forecast will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. Tonight I will look beyond the medium range and show you what some of the modeling is saying for Christmas time and into January.2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: Back on track yesterday and we are looking for a strong end to the year. Highly anomalous patterns like we should have next week make for tough forecasts but we are up to the challenge!Calendar.jpg CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning!The region is in a "dry slot" between the departing front and the approaching upper-level low today. There can be some sunny intervals and temperatures will be a few degrees above average.NOW.pngTODAYHIGHS.pngThat upper level system will first produce spotty rain showers this evening into the early overnight but as the air column overhead cools, we expect snow showers to take over in the wee hours of Thursday morning. Temperatures will be between 32-34 in most spots so we expect little in the way of road issues but the snow can certainly try to stick on non-paved surfaces in the northern part of our viewing area.How much?There can probably be coatings as far south as Rt 224 but the odds of getting an inch or so are highest north of I-80.NWSODDS.pngThe NWS forecast for snow amounts may be a bit overdone in northern Trumbull but I can see a lot of places getting an inch or so up there.NWS.pngAround the latitude of the airport, the SREF ensemble model shows a range of 0" to an inch and a half or so with the mean of all the runs around 0.75".SREF.pngSo, I will make a snow map this afternoon but generally it will probably show a coating-1/2" from Rt 224 to Youngstown, 1/2"-1" around I-80 and 1" to perhaps 2" north of there.Clouds will hang around for much of Thursday and there could be a sprinkle or flurry.FRIDAY/WEEKEND: High pressure will build in and we expect a good deal of sun, especially Saturday and Sunday. A warming trend as well. Great weekend to take care of the holiday decorations.FRIDAYMAPP.pngSATMAPP.pngLONG RANGE: Mild!!! No change to the thinking here.KYNG_2015120200_min_max_16.png WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed (and geeky) weather forecast will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. I'll have the latest information on tonight's snow and much much more.2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: Forecast looked good yesterday until a temperature spike right before the cold front arrived. Temperature got to 57 briefly.Calendar.jpgCONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube