TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Good Tuesday morning,After a weekend of record temperatures and a tie of the record high yesterday, today will be kind of "ho hum" with lots of clouds. Sure, it will be cooler but still 10 degrees above average!GOES13302015349Xm8NBc.jpgday1hi.pngWEDNESDAY: The day probably starts with some clouds but I think the afternoon will be very nice with some sunshine, a southwest wind and temperatures making it into the 50s. Enjoy!wednesdayy.pngTHURSDAY: The next cold front will arrive late Wednesday night and Thursday morning and we expect some showers with it. Most of the rain will probably be before noon Thursday. Temperatures may fall after a midday high.thurs.pngFRIDAY/SATURDAY: Well well well. Hi December! Nice to see you finally. Cold air will set up shop for a couple of days an it will be accompanied by some wind as well. Flurries will fly Friday, mainly in the afternoon. The lake-effect snow machine will eventually fire up and should drop several inches of powder in the snow belts of NE Ohio, NW PA and SW NY.fri.pngsat.pngIn the WFMJ viewing area, I would not expect much out of this. As is typical in these types of lake-effect events, far northern Trumbull and Mercer counties have the best chance of getting enough snow to measure.gfs_6hr_snow_acc_ma_22.pngLONG RANGE/CHRISTMAS: Temperatures will start to rebound as early as Sunday. Then the air mass will REALLY warm as we get into next week.Christmas Eve/Christmas Day breakdown as it stands now:High Confidence: -Temperatures will be above average. Even WAY above average.-There will not be snow.Medium Confidence: -There will be rain sometime in the 12/23 to 12/25 period.Low Confidence: -Not sure about record warmth yet.-Not sure of the timing of rain/which days it is most likely.-The warmth may actually peak on Christmas Eve with Christmas Day turning somewhat cooler.Don't rely on a crappy smartphone weather app for your long-range Christmas outlook, in which the forecasts are 1) computer generated and 2) based on one run of one model.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: On this evening's video, I plan on taking a deeper dive into the lake-effect set up late this week into Saturday (lots of people on the roads Saturday!). And of course, look for more analysis of the potential warm and wet Christmas in the Valley.  All on the Valley's most in-depth and geeky weather video! Look for it by 8:00pm.2 Degree Guarantee: Quick correction to the graphic: high was 62 yesterday. Still good enough for a green check. We need to add more of those checks, it has been a tough month for forecasters so far.CalendarCONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube