TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
Good morning!Trying to power through a cold again today.....here goes nothing!A gloomy start to December today and rain will visit at times. The radar at 8:40am looked like this:
The future radar shows a few batches of showers through this evening:
Rainfall totals will probably end up around 0.20-0.30" on average through tonight.
WEDNESDAY: A break in the action Wednesday as we await the upper level low to swing through. It will not be as mild as today but still above average with highs in the 40s.WEDNESDAY NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS: The atmosphere should cool enough Wednesday night to allow spotty rain showers to mix with and change to snow showers. It is possible that some places pick up a coating to an inch of snow, mainly north of I-80. It would be mostly on non-paved surfaces as temperatures will be near or slightly above freezing.
THURSDAY: Chilly with lots of clouds on Thursday. There can be some leftover flurries, mainly in the morning.
FRIDAY: Friday is the start of a nice stretch of weather that will take us through the weekend and early next week. High pressure will drop an anchor and we expect sunshine and a warming trend. LONG RANGE: As we have been talking about for a long time now, NO sustained periods of cold are likely through at least the first half of the month. Our winter forecast calls for December to be the warmest winter month compared to average and that forecast looks on track.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed (and geeky) weather forecast will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. Look for a discussion of meteorological winter along with an update on the chance for small accumulations of snow Wednesday night.CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube
Today, we look for quiet weather with a good deal of sunshine. Highs go back above average.
Meanwhile, an upper low is spinning out west and it will drop a blanket of snow in the High Plains today before tracking our way tonight and tomorrow.
TUESDAY: Rain should be pretty "showery" in nature....in other words it will come and go. Despite a good chance for rain drops it will be mild high with highs in the mid 50s.
WEDNESDAY: A dry slot will punch in behind the front Wednesday, leading to quiet weather with temperatures will above average (just not as warm as Tuesday).
Notice the blue off to the west....as a cold pool of air aloft pushes overhead Wednesday night, some flurries or snow showers can occur. We do not expect much in the way of accumulation with temperatures near or above freezing.
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND: Not much to talk about in the medium range....it looks quiet with moderating temperatures.There is NO sign of Winter in the long range.
On this busy travel day across the country, we expect no weather-related problems east of the Rockies. All the trouble is out west, where snow blanket the Rocky Mountain states.
THANKSGIVING DAY: Much to be thankful for weather-wise this year. A very mild air mass will be in place and although it will be cloudier than today....no rain is in the forecast. Highs in the mid 50s. 57-58 degrees is not out of the question.
FRIDAY: The dry forecast for holiday shoppers is still on track Friday morning but showers will push in by early to mid afternoon along a cold front.
WEEKEND: Saturday is likely to start with clouds but they can thin out for the midday and afternoon. It will be a more seasonable day behind the front with highs in the 40s.
Notice that our cold front will have stalled to our south by Saturday afternoon and evening. The forecast gets tricky for Sunday into early next week as there may be a wave of low pressure dragging that front back north and providing our region with some rain. Believe it or not part of the challenge is determining what happens to the remnants of what is now Hurricane Sandra in the Pacific. Current forecast rack:
The remnants of Sandra will be at least partly responsible for dragging that front back north but the question is: how far north? The models are having a tough time. Yesterday it seemed apparent that rain would return to the Valley Sunday and even into Monday. Today: a drier look. Tough forecasts.
LONG RANGE: After the dust settles on the early week forecast headaches, it seems apparent that a cold front will roll through later next week and a return to chilly (but not super cold) weather will result. No arctic outbreaks are coming in the foreseeable future and December is likely to be very mild (compared to the averages).
2 DEGREES GUARANTEE: We took one on the chin Tuesday and there was more morning and midday sunshine than expected. That one hurt but it's always nice when the forecast busts but it's a nice day.
THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY: The Appalachian Blizzard of 1950 was raging on this date 65 years ago. When the storm finally faded, the Valley had picked up 25 inches or more of snow with huge drifts. Certainly one of the most famous storms in our region's history.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. We'll geek out to the latest computer model ideas for early next week and examine how the pattern is evolving compared to other strong El Nino years. You may be surprised how different November has been compared to other years with powerful El Ninos.CONNECT: 
WEDNESDAY/TRAVEL WEATHER: We still expect a nice warm up with dry weather for the busy day-before-Thanksgiving. Nationally, the most unsettled weather will be in the Rockies and northern Plains. No weather-related delays expected in the East and South.
Locally, a nice southwest wind will develop, resulting in afternoon temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than today.
THANKSGIVING: Enjoy! A mild day with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 50s.
FRIDAY: Dry and mild for early morning shoppers. Rain chances will increase during the midday and afternoon as a cold front heads or way. 
WEEKEND: We'll dry out Saturday but it will be colder with highs in the lower 40s.
Another busy day for travelers Sunday. Tough forecast at this point as our models are not in great agreement. GFS (shown) says rain will push back in. Other models have a dry look. Stay tuned.
LONG RANGE: A chilly pattern for early December but there are no signs of any harsh cold.
2 DEGREES GUARANTEE: Sunday is not our day this month.....but yesterday we got back on track. I smell a new winning streak starting!
THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY: On this date in 1950 the region was was being impacted by one of the most famous storms in Ohio history. A snow storm got underway in Youngstown and by the following day we had 26" on the ground.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. Tonight's video will examine the computer model challenges with the weekend forecast as well as the pattern that will produce early December chill.CONNECT: 
Meanwhile, a weak disturbance will cross the Great Lakes today, resulting in some light snow or flurries in parts of NE Ohio and NW PA this afternoon. 15 hour futurecast:
This snow will not add up to much expect where there will be some lake-enhancement in NW PA. No accumulation expected for our viewing area.
TUESDAY:A tranquil day with increasing amounts of sunshine. There might be a stray morning flurry. Will still be chilly with highs in the upper 30s to near 40.
WEDNESDAY/HOLIDAY TRAVEL: Wednesday is the busiest (or one of the busiest) travel days of the year. Locally, it will be a pleasant day with milder afternoon temperatures.
If you or loved ones are travelling Wednesday, just about all the weather-related travel issues will be out west. Lots of snow in the Rockies and some rain in California.
THANKSGIVING DAY: A beautiful day with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 50s....nice!
FRIDAY: A cold front will push into the region Friday....showers are most likely in the afternoon and evening. So if you are out in the wee hours of the morning shopping.....probably no need for the wet weather gear. Early morning temperatures will be in the 40s (not bad!) and afternoon highs can reach 60 or so.
LONG RANGE: In the wake of Friday's front, the rest of the holiday weekend will be colder and largely dry. The colder air looks to stick around into early December.
THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY: On this date 10 years ago, we had a cold and wintry day with 1.8" of snow and a high of just 32. WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. Tonight we will go into more detail about the Thanksgiving week forecast and have a look at a cold weather pattern to start the month of December. Could the first week of December be the coldest part of the whole month?CONNECT: 
Why so little? Squall lines of rain over the Southeast "hogged" a lot of the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico....essentially halting the deep moisture from coming this far north.Today? Not bad! We already have some sunshine working in this morning.
Temperatures will rise a few degrees today after a very warm start. We'll spend most of the day between 57-61 degrees with a mix of sunshine and clouds. The wind will stay noticeable.
FRIDAY: After a much colder night, Friday will be a sunny, quiet day with high pressure just off to our south. High temperatures in the middle 40s, just slightly below average.
SATURDAY: The first snowstorm of the season will impact the Midwest Friday into Saturday, with a good dumping of snow for parts of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan:
For us, this will actually come in as rain late Saturday afternoon and evening. The low pressure area will be strengthening as it comes east so more warm air will get drawn northward. (The day may actually start woth a flurry along the warm front)
Saturday night will be windy and as the cold air wraps in behind the low, rain will change over to snow showers. There can be some local coatings on non-paved surfaces by Sunday morning.SUNDAY: The first true lake-effect event of the season will be underway by Sunday morning. The heaviest snow will be in the usual spots from Ashtabula County east toward NW PA and SW NY.
For our viewing area, this will be mostly just "mood" snow....flurries flying around at times but not really sticking much. A coating to an inch is a possibility for area north of I-80 and especially north of Cortland, Greenville, etc.
It will be blustery and cold Sunday; our coldest afternoon since late March.
LONG RANGE: As long as you or your loved ones' travel plans don't involve the western US things are looking great before and during Thanksgiving. The major hubs in the East will have no weather-related problems on Wednesday.
And Thanksgiving Day should be dry and mild with some sunshine.
After a cold start to the week, temperatures will get above average by Thanksgiving weekend.
THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY: On this date LAST YEAR.....the temperature was 9 degrees at daybreak....a new record low for November 19.TWO DEGREE GUARANTEE: After being too cool for a few days in a row, we dared the atmosphere to overachieve on Wednesday and the atmosphere did not accept the challenge. Still, we were within 2 degrees.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. Tonight: fun with computer models and the weekend system and a thorough look at next week's weather. Any cold coming in the longer range? Weather Geeks will have a look.CONNECT: 
Meanwhile, rain is still off to our west but it is only slowly pushing east.
We expect rain to spread across the area from west to east this evening between 8-10p. 15 hour simulated radar:Rainfall totals overnight will likely average 0.50-0.70". The rain can fall heavily for a time.
The wind will be a factor today. We have another one of those "low level jet"s screaming across parts of the region. Wind speeds at 5,000 feet are 80-90 mph this morning.
The core of that jet will stay off to our west. Unlike last Friday and Saturday, the atmosphere won't be able to efficiently "pull down" the wind energy aloft today so while it will be breezy to windy at times....we are not expecting the kind of wind we had several days ago. Western Ohio will have stronger winds.
We look for sustained winds of 12-25 mph with some gusts to 30-35 mph.THURSDAY: After a wet night, we will dry out Thursday with perhaps some intervals of sun. Temperatures will hold about steady in the 50s and then the mercury will start to fall in the afternoon.FRIDAY:High pressure will bring sunshine but it will be chilly with highs in the mid 40s...a few degrees below average.WEEKEND: Here is where we pay the piper for all the mild Autumn weather we have had. A weak area of low pressure will track across the region Saturday. The precipitation with this system will come in as rain around midday or early afternoon but then it will mix with and change over to snow by dinner time.
I don't expect the snow to cause any travel problems as temperatures will be above freezing early Saturday evening. Overnight, this will transition into more of a lake-effect event as much colder air wraps in behind the system. Lake-effect snow showers will continue on Sunday. mainly aimed at Ashtabula County in Ohio and much of NW PA.
Any accumulation in our viewing area? I think far northern Mercer and Trumbull counties could see an inch or so. Nothing more than a candy coating for the rest of us. The primary NW PA snowbelt could see several inches.
Cold Sunday! Blustery too.
LONG RANGE: Next week will start cold but look for a warming trend by Thanksgiving as the pattern across the US amplifies. A big upper low will bring cold and unsettled weather to the West while a ridge will park over the East.
This SHOULD result in quiet weather around the holiday. Stay tuned.
THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY: On this date LAST YEAR.....we had the 2nd coldest November day on record in Youngstown! The high was just 18. EIGHTEEN!TWO DEGREE GUARANTEE: Another overachiever Tuesday but we were within 2 degrees. Green checkmark!
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. This evening's video will be packed with information about tonight's rain, the weekend cold and snow and Thanksgiving week's weather.CONNECT: 
Highs today will be well above average yet again.
WEDNESDAY: Another warm day ahead of our strong cold front. The warmth will be in spite of thickening clouds. You can get in outdoor plans without problem through sunset...the rain will push in between 7pm-10pm.
An average on 1/2 inch of rain looks pretty likely Wednesday night.
THURSDAY: Rain will be gone by the time most are up and at 'em and we should see some sunshine trying to work in for the afternoon. Temperatures may hold about steady or slowly fall so afternoon readings should be no higher than the upper 40s.FRIDAY: High pressure will provide a fairly sunny day but it will be chilly with highs in the 40s.
WEEKEND: So over the weekend a "clipper"-type system will track across the southern Great Lakes. A reminder that a "clipper" is what we often call a fast-moving, fairly weak area of low pressure that usually originates in SW Canada.This system will probably bring some rain and snow showers for a time Saturday with a transition over to just snow showers at some point...probably late in the day.
Behind the system, lake-effect snow showers will fire up and there can be some accumulations in the snow belts Saturday night into Sunday.
Any accumulation for our viewing area? I don't think there is much, but we are early in the game. Stay tuned. Might be a situation where accumulations are small but impacts are felt with slick roads in spots Saturday night. Just for fun, the current GFS model accumulations:
Taken literally, it shows a coating to an inch for us and a couple/few inches in the snowbelts. It surely will not be exactly right. So, again...stay tuned.Cold Sunday with highs probably only in the mid 30s.
LONG RANGE: Starting to get a better grasp on Thanksgiving week. The cold air that is here this weekend is likely to stay into early next week. A warming trend appears likely toward Thanksgiving weekend.
THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY: On this date LAST YEAR.....4.4" of snow was recorded at the airport in Vienna. What a difference a year makes!TWO DEGREE GUARANTEE: Back on track yesterday after underestimating the warmth Sunday. Some tricky forecasts ahead, that's for sure!
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. This evening's video is going to focus on the midweek rain but we'll spend plenty of time talking about the weekend snow situation as well. Also: more details on the changeable weather that appears likely as we head toward Turkey Day.CONNECT: 
