Welcome everyone. I will take your questions now.

Q: The winter forecast was lousy, it stunk, it was off the mark, it went off the rails, it…well, it wasn’t good. True or false?

A: Yes. The temperature forecast:

What actually happened:

Oops.

Q: How could the forecast be that far off? Did you fall and hit your head?

A: Let me begin by saying that while my winter forecast was a stink bomb of epic proportions, many, MANY winter forecasts played up the potential for snow and cold much harder than I did. I advertised a colder than average winter but by small-ish margins. Some forecasts were ALL IN on the cold. So while my forecast was bad, it was “less bad” than many others.

Does that make me feel better? Nah, not really.

While I didn’t fall and hit my head (at least, I don’t think I did?), most, if not all, of the “conventional wisdom” of winter forecasting failed us this year. The general thinking by me (and most others) was this:

1) Weak El Nino or even a “neutral” signal in that part of the Pacific.

2) Winds at the very top of the atmosphere (the “QBO”) favored blocky patterns in the high latitudes, which can force cold into the eastern US for long periods.

3) We are at a “solar minimum”, with almost no sunspots and research has shown a correlation with solar minimums and high-latitude blocking.

4) The snow season got off to a ripping start in parts of Canada and across the pole in Siberia. This can encourage blocking patterns and help “refrigerate” air masses coming south from the arctic.

5) All of our top “analog” years were either cold or snowy or both. None showed a warm winter.

These were the building blocks of the forecast and they ALL FAILED.

Q: OK, so WHY? I mean, you should have seen this coming right?

A: There were 2 main villains in this story.

1) A highly unusual pattern in the INDIAN OCEAN. Remember the crazy Australian wildfires? They were associated with this funky pattern of ocean water temperatures called the Indian Ocean Dipole. Well, I think this anomalous event had far-reaching effects on weather patterns downstream in the Pacific and hence, North America. I talked about this in my late January blog post: https://www.ericwfmj.com/blog/why-has-this-winter-been-a-dud

2) A VERY strong polar vortex.

Q: Wait I thought the polar vortex brings the cold? Al Roker told me.

A: The polar vortex brings cold to our area when it departs it’s home over the North Pole and meanders and spreads out. When the vortex is spinning tightly like a figure skater with their arms tucked in, it keeps all that bitter cold locked up near the pole.

A strong vortex is associated with the POSITIVE phase of the “Arctic Oscillation” and the weak, meandering vortex is associated with the NEGATIVE phase.

Much research will go into this winter and why the arctic oscillation stayed so strong for so long. It’s possible that Indian Ocean pattern had something to do with it but we need the smart researchers in our science to look into it.

Q: Can the arctic oscillation phase be predicted?

A: It’s hard to predict the phase more than a few weeks in advance but our ability to do so may be improving. Interestingly, there WERE computer models that DID show the persistent positive AO lasting all winter. Those models were collectively ignored. It just didn’t seem like the right idea. Oops.

Q: What about climate change?

A: The changing climate almost certainly played SOME role (how much? hard to say right now) in how winter transpired in the Northern Hemisphere. The anomalous things in the Indian Ocean and over the Arctic, occurring against a background state of a rapidly warming planet…probably a perfect storm for the warmth.

Q: So with climate change happening and likely to get worse, will we EVER have a cold, snowy winter again??

A: YES. Our area will have winters like 1977-78 and 2014-15 again. But those kinds of severe cold winters will be less common as we go forward. Winters like 2019-2020 will not occur every year but winters of this flavor will be more common. The deck is stacked against cold. Every so often, cold can still win a hand but it’s going to lose the game.

A: That’s not a question. But I understand that it is easy to have recency bias. We have reeled off 5 straight warm winters.

But keep in mind that man made climate change has been happening for a while now and really started accelerating in the 80s and 90s. We have had cold winters over the last couple of decades. BUT, warm winters, especially VERY warm winters are certainly becoming more common.

Q: Hi it’s Barney from the Climate Denial Tribune. I see the warmest winters on record were in the 30s. No climate change then eh? Gotcha! This is all such a scam…my Facebook and Teevee programs told me.

A: Oh Barney.

It is true that much of the US was warm in ALL seasons in parts of the 30s. It was the Dust Bowl years. But a warm US does not make a warm world.

1930s:

The most recent decade:

Q: So what lessons were learned?

A: I can’t speak for every meteorologist. But I will look more carefully at far-flung places such as the Indian Ocean when I am constructing my winter forecast. I have said before that climate change is likely making seasonal forecasting HARDER, while the accuracy of routine 3-day, 5-day, 7-day forecasts is quite good and always getting better. I will just have to dig in harder and rely lass on “analogs”, since the climate of years past is starting to bear little resemblance to the current atmosphere.

Q: Hi, Facebook Commenter Carl here. Pfffft. You can’t even get the 3-day forecast right, like you have a prayer of getting a seasonal forecast right. Peace out.

A: Hi Carl thanks for providing your valued opinion. This year’s winter forecast was bad, no doubt. But we have had many good ones. You just don’t remember them…most people don’t remember good forecasts just like they don’t remember the 90% of the calls a basketball referee gets right. They remember the bad ones.

As for routine forecasts, they are very good. Not the ones on your crummy weather app, mind you. But ones produced by experienced experts in the field of meteorology? They are much better than you think.

Q: So does this mean we will have a HOT summer??

A: There is usually little correlation between how a winter behaves and how a summer plays out. That said…we can expect hotter and wetter summers to become more common in the future as the climate continues to warm. Not every summer will be that way but the odds will be higher for that type of season each year. Every month of the year is warmer than it used to be, although the largest amount of warming has occurred in winter, not summer.