THIS HAS BEEN A SOGGY SUMMER…WHAT GIVES??

As we hit the home stretch of “meteorological” Summer (the months of June, July and August), a common sentiment about this season’s weather has been:

It’s been soggy and stormy with fewer sunny and dry days than average. Not what most of us were looking for after a long winter of being cooped up inside. Not only has it been rainy in general but we have also seen a large number of severe thunderstorms and bouts of torrential rain over the last 2 months or so. We have seen more episodes of neighborhood flooding, especially in some particular “hot spots” such as Struthers, which we did a story on this week:

Forum planned Tuesday on flooding in Struthers - WFMJ.com

So is this part of a larger pattern? The answer is largely, yes.

THE CHANGING CLIMATE

If you’ve been following me/watching me for the last several years, you know I do not shy away from talking about climate change. Nor should I! While climate change information is communicated on local TV much more than it used to be, more TV meteorologists should be out in front on this issue. It’s real, it’s serious, it’s getting worse. These are established facts, no different than saying the Earth is round and that I have a mediocre golf swing.

In our region, the biggest impacts of the warming climate have come not from rising temperatures (although they ARE rising of course) but from increased precipitation. This will probably be the case for a while longer although unchecked climate change will eventually make our local temperatures more like present- day Alabama by 2100.

How does a warming climate lead to more precipitation? It’s pretty simple. Warmer air can “hold” more water vapor and an atmosphere with more water vapor in it can produce more heavy rain events.

Would some heavy rain events happen without climate change being a factor? Absolutely.. There’s some random chance involved. Barry Bonds would have hit many home runs even if he were not on steroids. But the fact that we was on the juice dramatically increased the ODDS that any given pitch would result in a home run. Climate change “loads the dice” so that extreme outcomes are more likely.

SOME OF THE NUMBERS

Through August 18, this has been the 5th wettest Summer (meteorological) on record for our area. Notice that 3 of the top 10 on this list are from the past 7 years.

Interestingly and perhaps counterintuitively, the release of the new 30-year averages earlier this year revealed that Summer is actually the season in which precipitation is increasing the LEAST in our area. August has seen the biggest jump out of the 3 Summer months so this wet August goes along with that.

9 of the 12 months of the year are wetter than they used to be and when we drill down to look at the frequency of “big” individual days, the trend is clear. While there is quite a bit of variation from year to year….the number of days in which we pick up 1” or more of rain is increasing.

WHAT CAN WE DO?

With the certainty that rain totals and flash flood events will continue to increase as the climate warms, individuals would be wise to take whatever preventative measures are in their power. Perhaps it’s time to invest in a sump pump. Make sure water flows away from your home.

Choosing to recycle, driving a hybrid, flying less….these are good, smart and noble things to do if you are capable. But let’s be realistic, they are drops in the bucket. Those concerned about climate change, whether it be because their basement tends to flood or because of the bigger picture concerns (fires, drought, extreme temperatures, etc) should make very careful choices about who to elect to positions of power and authority….both locally and nationally. Make sure your elected leaders believe in science, believe in facts and will advance a climate-friendly agenda. Voting is the best tool we as individuals have in this fight.