Monday (10/17) Morning Weather Briefing

I'M BACK!

After a week away I am back in the swing of things this morning. After a BALMY weekend, we'll be busting out the shorts again today. Last night's rain is pushing away:Visible satellite pics are tough to come by this early in the day at this time of the year because of the late sunrises, but the cloud shot at around 8:30 showed the clouds thinning out to our west.Hi-res modeling shows a generally sunny sky by this afternoon:Temperatures today will be nearly TWENTY degrees above average. A record? Nope, today's record high is 83, set in 1938.

SUMMER CONTINUES TUESDAY

Tuesday looks even warmer(!). Tuesday's record is 84 set in 1938 and we will make a run at it. A gusty southwest breeze and some sunshine will accompany the amazing warmth.

GETTING BACK TO NORMAL

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night and there may be some showers along it. In the wake of the front, Wednesday will be ONLY 10 degrees above average instead of 20-25.The more significant front will slog through on Thursday into Thursday night and a few rounds of rain are likely. There may be thunder too.There is some question as to how long the chance for rain will linger into Friday; I suspect the highest chance will be early in the day. It will feel more like Autumn either way with highs in the upper 50s to 60.We expect the weekend to be fairly uneventful although a passing shower will be a possibility. Temperatures near average with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

LONG RANGE

Expecting a less amplified pattern in the medium and long range, which means lower chances for crazy warmth (or unusual cold). The Climate Prediction Center does have decent odds for an above-average period in the 8-14 day range.

WINTER FORECAST

We are about TWO weeks away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Stay tuned for an exact date! 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Monday (10/3) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MONDAY MORNING!

The new work week began with a seasonable start to the day (temperatures in the 40s) and some patchy fog. The balance of today will be uneventful with some sunshine. The crazy upper-level low pressure system that has been hounding us for days is finally moving out of the region.It is going to be a tranquil week. The weather pattern will get gummed up again but this time it will work in our favor as a ridge of high pressure will reside over the region. We expect a good deal of sunshine through the end of the work week.Temperatures will warm. In fact readings can be as much as 12-14 degrees above average later this week. Enjoy!

THE WEEKEND+ MATTHEW

Our weekend may start with a cool front sliding through and providing the chance for showers Saturday. The timing of that front will depend some on the progress of Hurricane Matthew, which by the weekend will be putting a scare into the SE US.All interests in coastal parts of the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic should be keeping a close eye on the evolving forecasts for Matthew. Right now the highest odds are on Matthew skimming the coast but not making landfall....however the chances of a landfall or a complete miss are far from zero. All options are on the table this far out.

LONG RANGE

Notice on the temperature chart above that we have a cool down coming NEXT week? Models are in decent agreement that a trough of low pressure will set up over the Northeast late next week and that will drive some chilly mid-October air into our region. 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Thursday (9/29) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING TO YA,

Well we need the rain. As expected, a couple of unsettled days on the way for eastern Ohio and western PA. Rainfall totals of 0.25"-0.50" have been fairly common over the last 24 hours:Early this morning the radar showed spotty showers but a lack of "steady" rain (unlike in central and eastern PA):I think that's the way it will go for much of the morning and afternoon: hit/miss showers but plenty of dry intervals. Rain chances will increase toward dinnertime, as shown by our high-resolution short-term modeling:Even the high-res models are going to struggle with the placement of the bands of rain over the next couple of days. We have to avoid taking them verbatim and instead paying attention to the general nature of what it is depicting. And that means a higher chance for widespread rain by this evening.Temperatures will struggle today, staying in the 60s s all day.A fairly similar day Friday, plenty of dry intervals but a good chance for passing rain/showers. Plan on grabbing the poncho for high school football.The NWS forecast of an average of 1.5" of rain seems reasonable. Some will get quite a bit less, some could get a little more. A good drink of water.

WEEKEND IMPROVEMENT

The improvement will be slow but it will come. Saturday can still bring spotty showers but also some intervals of sunshine. I think Sunday is largely dry and pleasant as the cut-off low finally starts to move out of the region.

LONG RANGE

Still on track for a period of well above-average temperatures next week.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Wednesday (9/28) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

You may have noticed our forecast for today undergoing some changes last evening and those changes look like the right moves. The upper low that is set to impact the area is tracking a bit farther west than it looked previously and that will have a big impact on our weather today. While central and western Ohio will have a rainy Wednesday, we are far enough east that we are not looking at MUCH rain.15 hour hi-res futurecast:There can be a shower in spots from mid-afternoon on and a thunderstorm can't be ruled out, but many will stay dry during the daylight hours. This will also have an impact on temperatures. Instead of staying in the 60s, we'll enjoy readings in the lower 70s this afternoon.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY STILL LOOK WET

The cutoff upper low is still expected to bring showery rains to the region Thursday, Thursday night and Friday. It won't rain the entire time. The wettest period may be Thursday night. The NWS "Excessive Rainfall" outlooks show small chances for localized flooding: As you can see, the risk of flooding is quite a bit higher to our southeast. Here's a look at the NWS rainfall forecast through Friday. These numbers seem reasonable to me. An average of 1"-1.75" seems likely locally.The Washington/Baltimore region is in for a long few days with widespread flooding a concern.

THE WEEKEND

By the weekend, the low pressure system will be weakening and starting to slowly pull north. This should result in more sunshine and fewer showers.....although there can still be a couple around, especially Saturday.

NEXT WEEK: WARM

We are still on track to see a few balmy October days next week with high temperatures between 74-78 during midweek.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Tuesday (9/27) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Today is a winner and easily the nicest day of the week. We'll have sunshine in abundance with temperatures a couple of degrees above average. There will be a noticeable breeze as well. Highs:A true autumnal air mass. Look how dry the air is....dewpoints in the 30s and 40s. You don't see that in August!

HERE COMES THE UPPER LOW

From time to time an area of low pressure aloft "detaches" from the jet stream and "does it's own thing". We call these "cut off" upper-level lows. Well one of those is going to call Ohio and western PA home from tomorrow through at least the start of the weekend.This means that our weather will be unsettled at times. Showers will visit on a few occasions Wednesday-Friday. There can be spotty afternoon thunderstorms on Wednesday as well. Cut-off lows are fickle and can do strange things sometimes. We'll have to watch for "surprise" heavy bands of rain and even weak rotation in any storms. On the flip-side, pockets of dry air rotating around the low can give us extended periods where it is "not bad" out with some sunshine.As the weekend arrives, this thing will still be in our hair so we have to allow for at least spotty showers Saturday. Sunday is the day it should start to move and there should not be much more than stray showers.

LONG RANGE

Next week looks warm for early October for everyone east of the Rockies.I expect at least a couple or few days with highs 10 degrees above average.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

Looking to start a new streak today.

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Monday (9/26) Morning Weather Briefing

MORNING!

What a weekend! A real treat after a long, hot summer and first few weeks of September. While this week will be unsettled at times, it will be comfortable overall. Let's get to the details.Today started fine but a wall of rain is heading our way this afternoon. This is with the cold front that will usher in the next round of cool air. Radar just before 9:00:Hi-res futurecast shows rain is most likely between 1:30pm-3:30pm:There is a chance for thunder with this. The chance of a heavy, gusty thunderstorm is highest to our southeast, where there is a "Marginal" risk for severe weather.Rainfall totals today should average about 0.25".There is a distinct air mass change behind this front, check out the temperatures in the Plains this morning:

BEST DAY OF WEEK: TUESDAY

We'll be behind the front Tuesday and the dreaded "upper low" that I will talk about in a moment will not have arrived yet. So a nice one with very comfortable temperatures; highs in upper 60s.

 UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM HELL

There is an old saying "upper level low=weatherperson's woe". There is a reason for that: upper-level lows are a pain. They tend to "be their own boss", just meandering and making for difficult forecasts. Well this week one of these buggers is going to detach from the jet stream and meander around the region for 4-6 days.What's that mean for our weather? Well we have to allow for at least the chance for showers every day from Wednesday through the weekend. It will also serve to keep temperatures rather cool.Wednesday is "arrival day" for this thing and our first chance for showers.Thursday's upper-level map shows our bowling ball just sort of parked over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.By Sunday it will not have moved all that much.Bottom line: If you have outdoor plans Thursday through the weekend, be ready for at least SPOTTY showers. We'll gain more confidence with respect to what days may be wetter than others as we get into midweek.This will be our coolest stretch of the season so far. Still looks warm for at least a few days next week.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Friday (9/23) Morning Weather Briefing

HAPPY FRIDAY!

We have another warm one on the way today but some changes are on the horizon. We will remain south of a front today, allowing temperatures to get into the mid 80s this afternoon. It will also be rather muggy. 8am dewpoints:Notice the drier air to the north of the front across the Upper Midwest. That is what will head our way for the weekend.The front itself will come through unannounced tonight. No rain is expected. 7pm temperatures for those heading to a football game:High pressure will build in for the weekend. Enjoy some great early Fall weather tomorrow and Sunday with highs in the lower and middle 70s.

 NEXT WEEK

The models have been having HUGE struggles with next week's pattern but finally today it looks like we have some agreement. A cold front will march across the Valley late Monday and Monday night, bringing a decent chance for showers.Behind the front, an ACTUAL FALL-LIKE DAY for a change on Tuesday with variable cloudiness and a cool breeze. Temperatures are likely to stay in the 60s.This will be a shot of "seasonably cool" air for a few days but as we have been saying, October is likely to start quite warm.With this kind of pattern early in October, it will be more like early September.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

 

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Tuesday (9/21) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING...

Thankfully this morning's fog was much more patchy and not as dense when compared to Monday morning. A sun-soaked day on the way today. The surface map shows a front to our west. The air overhead is already pretty dry with dewpoints in the 50s. The front will essentially wash out before reaching us but some modest additional drying out of the air will occur. This will result in a somewhat cooler night tonight.

REST OF THE WEEK: ZZZZZZZZZ

Sunshine will dominate through Thursday and part of Friday. Don't forget, Autumn begins at 10:21am on Thursday. It will be a great day for a swim! High in the mid 80s through Friday. Clouds may increase toward Friday evening but we look dry for high school football.

WEEKEND

The weekend looks awesome as high pressure builds in. In the wake of a cool front, it will not be as warm, especially Sunday. There is a small (10-20%) chance for a shower Saturday.

LONG RANGE TRENDS

The long-range trends are coming into better focus. The last several days of September will feature some near-seasonable air for a change...that means highs generally 66-72. Around October 1st, I expect a warm up. The highs shown on the models above may be too low by at least a few degrees during the first several days of October.BTW, this may end up as the warmest September on record in Youngstown.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

We had a miss on Saturday (3 degrees off) after a streak of 34 days. New streak started! 

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Monday (9/19) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

After an unsettled weekend, a much calmer work week will unfold across the Valley. Today started with areas of fog; here's what our camera showed around 7:45: Once the fog lifts, a nice afternoon on the way as drier air (just to our west early today) is coming. Dewpoints:It'll be less humid but still warm with highs in the lower 80s.The rest of the week? A snoozer! A weak front will fizzle out before reaching us Tuesday. Look for another warm one with a good deal of sun.Wednesday and Thursday look sunny and warm. The next front is on the way Friday night into Saturday. I suspect we are dry for high school football Friday evening. Saturday could bring a spotty shower as the cooler air filters in.Temperature-wise, this will be quite a week. We have 80s in the forecast every day through Friday. Then, a somewhat more typical early Autumn pattern starting over the weekend.Assuming we hit 80 or above each of the next 5 days, it will be the most significant late-season warm spell since early October of 2007, when we were in the 80s for 5 straight.If September ended today it would be the 4th warmest on record in Youngstown. With all the warm weather we will see this week, I have to think we have a shot at securing the #1 mark or at least #2.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Friday (9/16) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

I am back after a great week at the National Weather Association Annual Meeting. Was a lot of fun and very informative. Of course one of the highlights of the week was meeting Jim Cantore.On the the weather. Another crisp start to the day across the region. Think it was chilly here? Check out Saranac Lake, New York (circled). Brr!Today will bring a warmer afternoon despite the cool start. Highs today 80-82. Higher dewpoint air will start making it's way north and it will feel humid tonight and tomorrow.It will be another beautiful Friday night for high school football. Dry with temperatures staying elevated. Not much need for the hoodie. Temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 by the end of the games.

WET WEEKEND

It's been a nice week of weather but the weekend will be a different story. Saturday will not be a "rainy" day...in other words it is not going to rain all day. But there can be some pockets of rain and thunder around at any point. Here's one of the models at 1pm, showing the scattered nature of the rain:A sluggish cold front will limp across the region Saturday night into Sunday, keeping our rain chances high. Again, Sunday does not look like a washout but it can rain at just about any time.How much rain? Our models are showing mostly around 0.50-0.75" with the RPM showing quite a bit more. I think an average of 0.50"-1.00" is likely for the weekend.After the weekend, next week looks pretty quiet.The story will become WARM weather, mainly during the 2nd half of the week. While 90 is not likely, we can have a couple/few days with highs in the mid 80s. Pretty toasty for the 2nd half of September!Notice the cooler weather shown in the longer range.Speaking of September, the first half of the month was a warm one across the eastern half of the country.Here in Youngstown we have had back-to-back warm openings to September. 2015 and 2016 brought the warmest starts to September since 1991. 

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Thursday (9/8) Morning Weather Briefing

GREETINGS!

It's not exactly going out on a limb but I will offer this prediction: today will be the "steamiest" day until next summer. We may see temperatures in the mid 80s a couple of more times, but with this kind of humidity? Unlikely.Heat and humidity will help to fuel some showers and thunderstorms later today. The radar is quiet locally this morning but as you can see there is plenty of action to our west.A look at our hi-resolution modeling shows an increasing threat for storms starting around mid-afternoon.The chance for a shower and thunderstorm will continue through the evening. Let's talk about the threats today. I think there are 2 main ones: isolated damaging wind gusts and tropical downpours. I issued this graphic last night and I think it's still valid, although I may set the end time at 9-10pm instead of 8pm.The Storm Prediction Center has kept the region in the "marginal" or "low" risk for SEVERE weather. Remember storms can cause problems even when they don't technically meet the criteria for a "severe" storm.There is a ton of moisture available to be "wrung out", especially by September standards. One way to visualize this is by looking at the "precipitable water" in the column of air above our heads. Where you see the orange-red colors the "PWAT" is around 2" or so.Notice the much drier air north of the cold front. A little of that will filter in tomorrow, meaning the afternoon will be less humid. Should be a quiet, pleasant evening for high school football.Showers can return Friday night and Saturday looks unsettled at times. The next cold front is a strong one with a big air mass change coming behind it. Ahead of it, we expect a warm, humid Saturday. A lot of the time will be dry but be on guard for a shower or storm at any point. The most organized thunderstorm activity is likely to be toward evening.

GORGEOUS SUNDAY/MONDAY

MUCH less humid with sunshine. Great sleeping weather. Enjoy!

MEDIUM/LONG RANGE

The next front will arrive around midweek. A brief warm up ahead of it Tuesday; it can get into the mid 80s. Only chance for rain next week is Tuesday night/Wednesday with the front. Behind it, pleasant, seasonable September weather looks likely.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

2nd-longest streak of the year!

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Wednesday (9/7) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Some "sneaky" showers were trying to push into the NW part of our viewing area as of this writing (9:15am). They were showing signs of weakening.After this batch moves through, we expect very little shower/storm activity for the rest of the day. A 20% chance for a stray cell to briefly impact your location. Hi-res futurecast:HEAT is the big story today. We should we near yesterday's high of 88....probably even a notch or two above that. With such a tropical air mass, heat index values can reach the mid 90s this afternoon:On Thursday, the first of two cold fronts will track our way. I suspect the highest chance for showers and storms will be late in the afternoon and into the evening as the front approaches.The Storm Prediction Center has the region in the "marginal" risk for severe weather. Meaning there is a small chance (but not 0%) that any storms produce damaging winds and large hail.Before any storms fire, it will be another stifling day with heat index values north of 90 degrees:

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL OUTLOOK

For week 3, what was a pretty tricky forecast is now a somewhat easier call. Thursday's front will settle south of the area, allowing somewhat drier air to filter in. A wave of low pressure will try to form along the front and drag rain back north and east, but IF that even happens, it should be AFTER Friday's games have ended.

THE WEEKEND

The second, stronger cold front will sweep across the area Saturday night. Ahead of it, pretty warm and humid Saturday with highs in the mid 80s. While there can be spotty shower/storm activity before Saturday evening, I suspect that the majority of the raindrops come toward sunset and into Saturday night.MUCH drier and more comfortable air is on the way for Sunday and Monday. Sunday may start cloudy but will end on a beautiful note. Open the windows!

LONG RANGE

A quick warm up Tuesday ahead of the next front which will knock temperatures back again for the second half of next week. A seasonable period seems likely for mid-month. Not hot but not October-ish either. Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook:

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

2nd-longest streak of the year!

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Tuesday (9/6) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Back to work and school for most today and it's the "unofficial" start of the Autumn season. Nature doesn't pay attention to calendars sometimes and this will be one of those weeks. Temperatures will climb into the mid 80s today with a noticeable increase in humidity, especially later today.Notice there are a couple of spritz's off to our west near the dewpoint boundary. I can't rule out a passing shower today but the odds of your location seeing raindrops are only 10-20%.Hi-res futurecast:Tomorrow will be even hotter and more humid. Highs near 90  (the record high is 91, btw)There is not much of a trigger for showers/storms tomorrow and the atmosphere will be largely "capped", meaning there will be a layer of warm air aloft that will not allow storms to form easily. That said, there is a small chance for a pop-up shower or storm in the afternoon.

2 FRONTS

The first of 2 cold fronts will cross the area late Thursday. So, a shower and thunderstorm will be around the region in the afternoon and evening.That front will hit the brakes and stall somewhere just to our south. Then, a wave of low pressure will take a ride along the boundary, spreading rain and thunder back into the region sometime Friday/Friday night. But when?? Will the rain be back for high school football? Important question but we don't know the answer yet. Stay tuned.GFS model says: rainy for football:Front #2 is MUCH stronger. It arrives late Saturday and will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some could be strong if the timing is right.Behind the front, a refreshing air mass will be here for a couple of days. Beautiful Sunday and Monday. After that, a brief warm up but overall mid-month looks comfortable:Autumn is going to start making more and more invasions into the US. There might be an early-season frost threat in the Upper Midwest next week:

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Weather For Weather Geeks September 1

https://youtu.be/U8Jt4Ivo4ao

Wednesday (8/31) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Already it feels different out there this morning. Cooler but more humid and certainly cloudier than the last couple of mornings. At 8:45am, some showers and sprinkles were impacting areas north of I-80.A cold front is on the way and it will trigger additional showers this afternoon and early this evening. A thunderstorm is possible. Our hi-res 18 hour futurecast:If you are planning on hitting the Canfield Fair or doing anything else outdoors today, here's the hourly breakdown of rain chances.Check that StormTracker 21 app often!In the wake of the front, a taste of Autumn for the 1st day of September. Highs tomorrow only around 73-74 with a cool breeze. It may look like rain at times but I would not expect anything more than a sprinkle.

THEN....AMAZING WEATHER

Friday and the holiday weekend look spectacular. We may struggle with clouds for a while Friday morning but the day will end on a beautiful note and I expect to be able to count the clouds on one hand Saturday-Monday.Meanwhile, coastal areas of the Southeast will  be keeping a close eye on Hermine.A great pattern but a dry one. Nary a drop for about a week after today.Look for a big Summer review and September preview here on Thursday. 

LONG RANGE

Hot next week! 

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Tuesday (8/30) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

And what a morning it is. Temperatures were in the mid 50s at daybreak this morning. With high pressure drifting to our east today, expect another sun-filled day with a very warm afternoon.Notice the river valley fog over parts of NY/PA this morning. Otherwise, it is crystal clear.Highs today will be about 7-9 degrees above average for August 30. The humidity will stay low.

ONE CHANCE FOR RAIN

It is a good thing we have picked up some rain lately because we are heading into another very dry pattern. The one chance for rain in the next several days is Wednesday as a cold front heads our way. Expect hit/miss showers and storms in the afternoon.Notice how little rain the European model shows across the region over the next 10 days:

CANFIELD FAIR WEATHER

Wow. A pretty amazing forecast for the fair. The only chance for rain is for opening day Wednesday. Thursday will feature some clouds and I can't rule out a sprinkle. Friday and the weekend=aces.This will be the most comfortable fair since 2010 and a huge change from last year's scorcher.

LONG RANGE

A HOT pattern from Labor Day through at least the end of next week. Summer is far from over.September is expected to be another warmer-than-average month. 

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Wednesday (8/24) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

After another comfortable night, a quiet and warm day is in store for today. It will not be quite as "pristine" as Tuesday as a veil of high clouds will move overhead.Highs today a few degrees warmer than Tuesday.Dewpoints will remain in the "comfortable" zone today, mainly in the upper 50s to near 60. The soupy air returns tonight and tomorrow.Notice that complex of rain and thunderstorms on the radar image above? That's associated with the leading edge of the more humid air. That is likely to head our way tonight. We may hear some thunder overnight. 1am simulated radar:Thursday will not be a wash out by any stretch. There should be long periods of dry weather. It'll be hot! Thunderstorms can crop up at times. There is a low risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.With a few high school football games on the schedule Thursday evening, stay weather aware and be sure to have the Storm Tracker 21 weather app.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Friday will be a better day and we expect a beautiful evening for football. Dewpoints will come down in the wake of the front.Saturday is also looking like a fantastic late summer day with low dewpoints and plenty of sunshine.A warm front should cross the region Saturday night/Sunday and a more humid air mass will mean there is a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm.Hot weather will return late in the weekend into early next week. BUT it still looks like the heat will peak BEFORE the Canfield Fair/Labor Day weekend.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Tuesday (8/23) Morning Weather Briefing

Good morning!

And what a morning it is! A sensational summer morning with nothing but sunshine and low humidity. This afternoon will be warmer than yesterday but overall today is a fantastic summer day.

MIDWEEK WARM UP CONTINUES

We'll see the heat crank up Wednesday into Thursday. A dewpoint jump will occur by Thursday morning, making it feel like mid-summer again. While Wednesday looks dry, Thursday will feature spotty showers and thunderstorms.  With the increase in moisture will come an increase ion atmospheric instability Thursday. There is a "marginal" risk for severe weather, per the Storm Prediction Center outlook.The steamy air will be pushed away just in time for the weekend and we look to dry out Friday. Saturday looks great!If we get wet over the weekend, it would be on Sunday.

LONG RANGE

The Canfield Fair/Labor Day weekend is now close enough for us to start picking out trends for that weekend. It looks like it will get hot again early next week but will the heat be trimmed by late in the week and the weekend? Looks that way. The weekend may feature cool weather in the Northeast and the West Coast, high heat in the middle of the country and "typical" early September weather here. If the current information proves correct. Much can change between now and then so stay tuned. 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

CONNECT: 

FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

Weather For Weather Geeks August 18

https://youtu.be/Cj--TJ-0WNA

Blog: Severe Weather Possibilities Today

Good morning!We are going to just focus on today's weather in this morning's post. We have the chance for severe weather this afternoon and early this evening. So let's walk through the details.

SETUP

Obviously a moist, humid air mass is overhead this morning with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s.A cold front, albeit a very weak one, is slowly pushing east into this juicy air.We also have some sunshine this morning, helping to make the air mass warm and a little more unstable. Temperatures should rise into the mid 80s today.Additionally, we have a decent wind field in the lower levels of the atmosphere today. Winds 5,000 feet up will be around 40-60 mph this afternoon.This is good and bad news. Good because storms that do fire will move along and not just park over one spot. Bad because storms can also "pull down" some of this wind energy in downdrafts and that raises the risk for damaging wind gusts.So, pretty decent setup. That's why the Storm Prediction Center has the region in the "Slight" risk for severe weather.

TIMING/IMPACTS

I think the "window" for strong to severe storms is in the mid and late afternoon hours.15 hour futurecast showing what the radar, generally, should look like: Damaging winds will, easily, be the #1 threat. Hail is possible, but severe hail (1" or larger)? Pretty unlikely. Notice the very low tornado threat. Very low but not ZERO. There is a little twisting shown in some of the modeling this afternoon. The SPC has a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any spot.

STAY WEATHER AWARE

On any day that severe weather threatens, make sure you have at least 2 ways to get warnings. The Storm Tracker 21 app can alert you and you can track storms on the Interactive Radar.I will stream live on my Facebook Page if the situation warrants.Keep in mind that, unless a Tornado Warning is issued, we will not cover up Olympics coverage on TV with the map and the crawl (except during breaks). So social media/internet/mobile will be the best way to stay up to date.