TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!Another great day coming today as southwest winds pump in some mild air.nowTemperatures will get into the mid 60s today and a few spots may even sneak up near 70.todayhighsTHE NEXT FRONT: After another balmy day Wednesday with highs near 70, a cool front will push across the Valley on Thursday. It does not look like there will be much rain with this front, just a couple of showers.thursFRIDAY: Behind the front, a sunny but cooler day Friday with highs in the 50s. High pressure will keep the sky clear for football Friday evening. Bundle up!friTHE WEEKEND: A lot of Saturday will be just fine for raking leaves and any other outdoor activities. Some sunshine will send temperatures into the lower 60s. But a cold front will approach late and, especially after sunset, there can be a shower around.sateveOn Sunday, showers may linger into the morning but I suspect the afternoon is largely dry.sunamLONG RANGE: A cool stretch is likely next week with highs mainly in the 50s. Actually our average highs by next week are in the upper 50s so a few days with highs in the lower and middle 50s will not be that far from par for late October.KYNG_2015102000_min_max_16

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)Good Monday morning!As promised, a cold and a frosty start to the day. Lows this morning were in the mid 20s in the coldest spots:lowsIt will be a nicer day today despite the cold start. Sunshine will send temperatures into the mid 50s this afternoon....still below average but much better than the weekend!highstodayTUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Southwest winds and sunshine will warm us up nicely. A couple of great days! Highs Tuesday will be in the mid 60s and we can flrit with 70 Wednesday.highstueTHURSDAY: A cool front will slide through late Wednesday night into Thursday. This front will have very little moisture to work with some it probably will not produce much more than a shower or two.thursamFRIDAY: Behind the front, a cooler day Friday but with high pressure in control we expect some sunshine. It will be dry for high school football this week.fridayeveWEEKEND: Saturday is looking good at this point and it will be warmer than Friday. Probably low 60s. The next front is likely to arrive Saturday night/Sunday with a round of showers.sunamAnother cool shot behind that front. As is typical of this time of the year, lots of ups and downs coming over the next couple of weeks.16day

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!Today will be a fine Autumn day after the cold start. Afternoon temperatures will rise into the mid 60s.highsthursThe next cold front is a fast mover and clouds will increase later this afternoon. Showers will become likely by this evening after sunset. 15 hour simulated radar:hrrr_2015101511_ref_clevelandFRIDAY: Friday starts dry but another disturbance will fire up some showers in the afternoon and evening. There will be a cold rain falling at some high school football games. NAM model simulated radar:ezgif.com-video-to-gifWEEKEND: Brrr! High temperatures only in the mid 40s this weekend. A rain shower will be possible at any time Saturday through Sunday morning and...There might be snowflakes seen, especially Saturday evening and overnight. We do NOT expect any snow acumulation locally. But where snow showers are most persistent in the hilly terrain of northern PA, a coating is possible.snowFROST/FREEZE THREAT:Saturday night's temperatures will be largely dependent on cloud cover. Areas farthest away from Lake Erie can drop below freezing with heavy frost. Clouds will keep other areas around 33-34.cloudssunlowssunWith high pressure overhead Sunday night, I expect the sky to be mainly clear everywhere and a hard, killing freeze will occur.lowsmonThe coldest spots can get to 23-26 degrees.We are not alone....a big area will see temperatures at or below 32 degrees over the coming days.popbelow32NEXT WEEK:  A fast warm up is coming. Mostly sunny through Wednesday with temperatures back in the 60s. The next chance for rain will be toward the end of the week.

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!Last night's rain did not amount to much across the Valley.DMARainThis morning started with sunshine but clouds are rolling back in and they are here to stay.nowMuch cooler today! After a high of 73 yesterday, temperatures will stay mainly in the 50s today.meteogramWEDNESDAY: A brisk and chilly day with a lake-enhanced/lake effect rain shower in spots. These showers can actually arrive as early as tonight.hires_ref_cleveland_33END OF THE WEEK: After a nice day Thursday, Friday is looking unsettled, especially in the morning. The next cold front will spark showers and a cool, gusty breezefriamWEEKEND FROST/FREEZE THREAT: Very chilly Saturday with temperatures holding in the 40s. It's not outside of the realm of possibility that someone in the far northern part of our viewing area sees a snowflake. For the majority of us, it's a raw, blustery day with a couple of rain showers.satHow cold it gets Saturday night depends on clouds. If they hang around, it may not get to freezing or below. Current GFS model forecast lows:lowssunSunday night is likely to be colder with a widespread freeze.lowsmonSee you this evening on 21 News at 6&11!

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)Good morning all!It's going to a roller coaster ride over the next week...buckle up.TODAY: The BEST day of the week, hands down! Sunshine and gusty southwest winds will send temperatures back into the 70s this afternoon.ndfd_t2max_cleveland_1TONIGHT/TUESDAY:A cold front will put an end to the unseasonable warmth and this front will also produce showers tonight, starting well after sunset. NAM simulated radar:ezgif.com-video-to-gif (1)The rain should be gone by daybreak Tuesday but the day overall will be a much more typical October day with chilly, gusty breezes.TUESPMWEDNESDAY: Very chilly air blowing over the relatively warm Great Lakes will lead to some lake-enhanced rain showers, mainly north of I-80. Blustery and chilly with temperatures only in the 50s.WEDSEND OF THE WEEK: After a sunny, nice Thursday, Friday will feature the arrival of the strongest cold front of the season so far. Some showers are likely, mainly early in the day.FRIAMWEEKEND: Behind that front, Saturday is going to November-like! Raw and cold with lake-effect rain showers. There MIGHT even be snowflakes mixed in in far northern PA and southern NY. Highs Saturday might only be in the 40s.SATFROST/FREEZE THREAT. Frost is quite likely Saturday night and some places can get a hard freeze. We are early in the game here but I suspect lows Sunday morning will range from 26-32. The growing season is about to end.SUNAMSunday night/Monday morning may be just about as cold.MONAM

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!A cloudy and foggy start to our day across the Valley, as our cameras showed at 8:50am:boardman columbiana nilesOur short term model (the HRRR) shows the clouds and fog eroding by midday:ezgif.com-video-to-gifHighs today will be in the upper 60s to about 70.wedshighsFRIDAY: After a nice day Thursday (watch fog fog again early), Friday is our wet day. A cold front will cross the Valley in the morning.friamMost of the rain should be gone by mid-afternoon although spotty drizzle could linger. How much rain? The SREF plumes show a spread of about 0.10"-0.70" with an average of 0.30".SREFThe GFS shows about 0.30"gfs_tprecip_cleveland_13So, 0.20"-0.40" seems reasonable.It'll be a chilly evening for high school football.WEEKEND: Sunshine most of the weekend as high pressure builds in. Highs Saturday near 60 but middle and upper 60s look likely Sunday. Nice weekend!sat sunLON RANGE: Nothing real remarkable here with some cool and mild stretches likely for the rest of the month. October's temperatures overall may end up above average but by a much smaller margin than September's.KYNG_2015100700_min_max_16

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!A new work week begins and it looks like a nice week of weather. This morning's map shows high pressure to our north:TODAYHighs today will be in the upper 60s to around 70 with sunshine. Enjoy!DAY1TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Pretty similar to today! Temperatures will rise to a few degrees above average each day with a good deal of sunshine. Lots of highs near 70.FRIDAY: Our next wet day is this day. A cold front will cross the Valley and showers are likely. They may be most prominent in the morning but we will iron out timing over the next few days. Thunder is unlikely.2015-10-05_9-15-52WEEKEND: A cool but dry start to the weekend is likely. High pressure will bring sunshine and temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60. Saturday morning could feature the first morning of the fall with widespread highs in the upper 30s. A frost is unlikely, but stay tuned.SATSunday should be warmer.

FRIDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)Check out my September recap and October forecast HERETGIF! A chilly start this morning with temperatures well down into the 40s. This morning's weather map shows the epic rain event well underway in parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic:nowStill expecting a foot or more of rain in much of South Carolina.qpfBack here at home, a cool, breezy day today with highs in the upper 50s.ndfd_t2max_cleveland_1Will still be breezy this evening for high school football. Expect northeast winds at 10-20 mph.WINDTHE WEEKEND: Some of that moisture on the East Coast will back into the region late tonight and Saturday, leading to a chilly, raw and damp start to the weekend. The rain will probably be steadiest in the morning. 9am simulated radar: 9amBy 5pm, there may be a shower around but it will be much more "hit or miss":5pmA VERY chilly, breezy day with afternoon temperatures probably staying in the upper 40s!2pmtempsSunday will be MUCH nicer with some intervals of sun and highs in the mid 60s.NEXT WEEK: Back to a warmer-than-average pattern in the medium and long range. THe 5-10 day outlook shows a lack of true October chill in much of the country. Expect a lot of highs in the upper 60s and even 70s.510

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!Some beneficial rain across the region although some places in PA had a bit too much.2DAYSome leftover drizzle out there this morning; the balance of the day will just be cloudy, cool, breezy and less humid. Temperatures will only rise a couple of degrees today.This is a true Fall air mass sliding through the Midwest.8ATEMPSMeanwhile, Joaquin is now a hurricane. More on Joaquin in a minute. Current view of the storm:TROPSATTHURSDAY: An uneventful day for us with clouds, some sun and cool temperatures.ndfd_t2max_cleveland_2FRIDAY: This is when things get interesting for the East Coast and the Appalachians as tropical moisture gets thrown up and over a stalled front. Heavy rain will break out. For us, a pretty cloudy and cool day but not much more than a shower. We should be in decent shape for football Friday evening....just typical October chill.frievegfsWEEKEND: A wild and potentially dangerous situation for many to our east. Even if Joaquin does not make a landfall, soaking rains will lead to a big flood risk along the East Coast and back into the mountains.QPFThe current NHC cone for Joaquin is pretty wide, showing continued uncertainty.114425W_smThat said, the cone has shifted west since last night, reflecting the trends in the models. The GFS has a scary situation:SUNGFSWHAT ABOUT *OUR* WEATHER??Ok, back to what this means for us. Independent of what Joaquin may do, Saturday is likely to be a blustery, cold and rainy day. The rain is not likely to be heavy but....yick.SATGFSHighs might only be 50-54.On Sunday, the forecast is more dependent on what Joaquin does. If the GFS idea shown above is right, we may have a windy and rainy afternoon/evening/night. If Joaquin stays out to sea, we still may see showers but it would be less rain and wind.Stay tuned!

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)Morning!We had some rain overnight but most of the region is in a break around 9:00 this morning. The afternoon and evening will be the wettest part of the day today.now15 hour futurecast:hrrr_2015092911_ref_clevelandWEDNESDAY: The slow-moving front will finally push east of the region on Wednesday but the day will start with some rain. Even though the steadiest rain will be gone in the afternoon, there might be some spotty mist or drizzle.8AWEDSCooler and less humid Wednesday. Highs around 60 or so. A real chill in the air.Rain totals over the next couple of days will likely average 0.75"-1".SREFThere might be some higher totals south and east of Youngstown, as shown in the NWS forecast:nwsrainTHURSDAY, OCTOBER 1: The best day of the week and it will certainly feel Autumnal with highs again around 60 or so.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: If you have been following me on social media over the last couple of days, I have been talking about the very challenging forecast for Friday and the weekend. The picture is a bit clearer today. Odds now favor a decent Friday with the rain staying east.FRIBut....Saturday is looking worse. Models are in better agreement today that moisture will push in from the East as a strong low pressure system impacts the East Coast.SATSunday will bring a chance for showers and I will look at Sunday more carefully later today.

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!Breaking news! It rained last night and will rain some more this week!45aSome places picked up a tenth of an inch or so last night:DMARainExpect a few more bouts of light rain or drizzle today, especially through midday. 15 hour futurecast:hrrr_2015092810_ref_clevelandHighs today will be on the mild side.ndfd_t2max_cleveland_1TUESDAY: A cold front will slide into the region and there can be showers just about anytime. Outside chance for thunder as well. It will also be the last warmer-than-average day of the week.tuesWEDNESDAY: This is where the forecast starts to get tricky. The GFS (shown below) would have you believe the front will be a "clean sweep", pushing east of the region and taking the rain away. The European, NAM and Canadian models form a wave of low pressure on the front earlier, slowing it down and keeping the moisture around for much of Wednesday....especially south and east of Youngstown.wedsI lean in the slower direction and think we might need to allow for a little rain Wednesday.REST OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND: Confidence is lower than average for this time frame as the models are all over the place. On the table:1) A dry period Thursday through Sunday.2) Lingering showers Thursday and Friday....perhaps into Saturday morning.3) High temperatures that could range from 55-65, depending on if the clouds and moisture linger. Stay tuned.LONG RANGE: A cool-ish pattern looks to settle in but these temperatures are actually pretty close to average for the first half of October.16daygfs

FRIDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)TGIF! Today will not be as "pristine" looking as the last few days but it will still be a nice one with sunshine and a veil of high cirrus clouds.irFRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Looking good this evening with mild temperatures. Next week is likely to be the first "chilly" Friday night of the season.footballSATURDAY: A thicker overcast is likely so any sunshine will be pretty dim, especially as you head south through the viewing area. It may "look" like rain but it will be a dry day.sathighsSUNDAY: We added the chance for some rain to the forecast last evening for Sunday and that looks like the right call. There are still enough differences among the computer models with respect to timing and rain amounts to keep the chance in the 40% range but the chance may go up as new information becomes available today. A couple of models for Sunday morning:gfssunamnamsunamRainfall totals will probably be under a quarter of an inch with the lowest totals north and highest south.rainLUNAR ECLIPSE: Well things are not looking great for viewing the total lunar eclipse Sunday evening. We may get lucky and see some thinning of the clouds (especially west of Youngstown) but I am not real optimistic at this point.nam_cloud_total_ne_25 gfs_total_cloud_ma_12You can find more information on the eclipse in THIS blog post from a few days ago.NEXT WEEK: A warm up is coming for early in the week before a cold front arrives during midweek. Some chilly nights and seasonable days behind that front.KYNG_2015092500_min_max_16

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!More sunny and warm weather today....what a shock!day1The weather is great but of course we need rain. The latest drought monitor shows a growing area of "abnormally dry" conditions:DROUGHTFRIDAY/WEEKEND:The forecast remains a dry one although I think there will be more clouds. The system that will bring blustery and rainy weather to the Carolinas and parts of the mid-Atlantic region will spread rain perhaps as far north as I-70 Saturday:SATThe latest European model actually bring showers into the Valley Sunday. Not ready to bite on that yet but it certainly is worth watching.ECLIPSE: Have a look at this video that I posted last evening: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1sUdsNA3j8Latest models are showing at least SOME clouds Sunday evening. Worst case scenario of a thick overcast is on the table but perhaps not the most likely situation yet.gfs_total_cloud_ma_16WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: This evening's video will take a more in-depth look at the weekend and the forecast challenged for next week.

SEPTEMBER 22 WEATHER BRIEFING

in

Happy last full day of Summer! Autumn begins tomorrow morning at 4:21/4:22am (depending on your source, haha).Fall-EquinoxImage from AccuWeather.comDespite the pattern being a warm one overall, the temperature map this morning shows a large pocket of cool, crisp air across the region.8ATEMPSOn this final day of Summer, expect another nice one with just some fair-weather clouds mixing with the sun. Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.TUEHIGHSAs you are probably know, we are in a very dry stretch of weather that will continue through at least the upcoming weekend. The latest GFS model has only a small of amount of rain here next week, giving us a 10-day  rain total of maybe a 1/10 of an inch.10DAYRAINThe Autumn season is likely to be a warm one overall and the next couple of weeks will be no exception. The 8-16 day outlook shows a warm period to start October.816LUNAR ECLIPSE:Don't forget, TOTAL lunar eclipse this coming Sunday evening. Read about it on this blog post from last night.

BLOG: TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE SUNDAY NIGHT

in

(Click images to enlarge)We have quite a cool event coming up the evening of Sunday, September 27. A TOTAL lunar eclipse will be visible in our part of the world (weather permitting of course).Reminder: A lunar eclipse  occurs when the moon passes directly through the Earth’s shadow.2000px-Geometry_of_a_Lunar_Eclipse.svgA lunar eclipse is awesome enough but this eclipse will also occur during the lunar perigee (the point in the Moon's orbit wen it is closest to Earth). Yes it will be a "Supermoon". The last time a total lunar eclipse happened during a "Supermoon" was in 1982.Information from NOAA:supermoon-540x450The total eclipse will be visible from the eastern US and all of South America across the Atlantic to parts of Europe and Africa.2015-09-21_10-15-20WHEN TO LOOK: detailsWILL THE WEATHER COOPERATE?At this early stage of the game, it's kind of a tossup. It won't rain but there might be some clouds coming off a system along the East Coast. Stay tuned for the latest forecasts!gfs_total_cloud_ma_27

WEATHER BRIEFING SEPTEMBER 21

in

(Click images to enlarge)Good Monday morning!After another soggy (at times) Saturday, Sunday turned out to be a pleasant day and this is going to be another great week. The pattern (dry with warm afternoons) will be just about perfect for harvest time.Today's highs will fall just shy of average....pretty close to yesterday's values.day1This week will be dominated by high pressure. The air will be dry, allowing for cool, comfortable nights and warm afternoons. Of course, we need more rain. Some places have had about 1/2 their average rain over the last 2 months:60DAYSBut there will not be a drop through the weekend. Look at the large chunk of real estate that will be high and dry over the next 7 days:7DAYQPFHere's a look at the temperature trend off the GFS ensemble model. No signs of Autumn here!DAY16Autumn officially begins in the predawn hours Wednesday. This is one of the two times during the year that the Sun's rays are aimed directly over the Equator. From Wednesday through next March, the Sun's most direct energy will be pointed south of the Equator.....Spring and Summer for the Southern Hemisphere and Autumn and Winter for the Northern Hemisphere.september-equinox-illustration

SEPTEMBER 18 WEATHER BRIEFING

in

Happy Friday!A great week of weather will continue today with a mix of sun and clouds and warm afternoon temperatures.HIGHSTODAYLooks like a warm, nice evening for high school football. Kickoff temperatures in the mid 70s.SATURDAY:If you want to do something outdoors, I think the vast majority of the region will be dry through at least 2pm. A pretty good cold front will push into the Valley around mid-afternoon and showers will become more likely. There might be a thunderstorm.5PSevere weather risk does look pretty low locally but hail and/or damaging winds can't be ruled out either. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of northern Ohio in the "marginal" risk zone for severe weather.DAY2SUNDAY: Behind the front Sunday will be a nice day but it will be much cooler. Generally 2-5 degrees below average. Great football weather!HIGHSSUNNEXT WEEK: Looks like another pretty tranquil week. Temperatures will be near or slightly below average early in the week with a mix of sun and clouds. The second half of the week is looking warmer with highs in the middle and upper 70s.Have a great Friday and weekend!