BLOG: Major Winter Storm Pounces Sunday/Sunday Night

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Good morning! As I promised last evening on Facebook and Twitter, this morning is the moment that we have to really hone in on the storm for Sunday and Sunday night. The computer models have come into pretty good agreement and have shifted the track of the system fairly substantially over the last 24 hours. What does this mean?SNOW! And potentially lots of it. Let's go step by step.At 7am Sunday, some light snow will be pushing in. Roads can get slick quickly Sunday morning even if the snow if light. 7amBy midday, steady snow will be ongoing..ands probably starting to pick up in intensity. 1pm: 1pm As we are settling in to watch the Super Bowl (on 21 WFMJ, of course) it should be snowing at a good clip. Stay in if you can. Travel will be tough. 7pmFrom this point through the overnight hours, the snow will probably be pretty heavy. 1am: 1amBy daybreak Monday, the worst will be over but it roads are probably still going to be pretty messy. 7am: 7ammondayOk, so how much snow are we looking at? One way to look at snow predictions is by examining the percent chance of an amount of snow accumulating. Sometimes this is more useful than "xx" number of inches, especially a couple of days from a storm. It helps convey the degree of confidence we have.NWS odds of more than 1" (through daybreak Monday. There can be small additional accumulations after that point).  Really high: 1inch2 inches: 2inch4 inches: 4inch6 inches: 6inchand finally 8 inches: 8inchI think these percentages are reasonable and would not be surprised if they are raised a bit later today, especially north of I-70.Here's our initial snow forecast. Keep in mind....this is the FIRST stab. As you know, a wobble in the expected storm track can sometimes make a big difference. CHECK THE FORECAST OFTEN TODAY AND TOMORROW on social media, TV and wfmj.com. snowmapbigsnowmapcloseThis has the potential to be our biggest snow event of the season so far.Keep in mind: This will be an almost 24 hour event! Plan accordingly.Impacts on roads will be high and I suspect Monday will feature plenty of school delays or cancellations. IMPACTSMuch more this afternoon on "Weather For Weather Geeks", Facebook and Twitter. A full update on 21 News at 6&11. Thanks for reading!Eric

BLOG: Strongest "Clipper" of the Season Sunday

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It has been a very average Winter so far in the snow department; much of the snow the region has picked up has been by way of "Alberta Clippers", the fast-moving areas of low pressure that originate in western Canada and swing through the Great Lakes region. We have another one of those types of systems coming Sunday, but this will be the strongest one of the season so far.First off: a disclaimer....this remains a somewhat low-confidence forecast. I'll show you why in this Blog. Check the forecast often over the next 36 hours as small changes in the track of the system can result in significant changes to the snow totals.I always think it is interesting to look at how innocuous high-impact systems can look a couple of days before they cruise through. Sunday's storm is just a "blip" in the overall flow of air at 18,000 feet over the eastern Pacific. 500nowBut this ripple in the flow will become more of a "wave" as it heads over the ridge on the West Coast and dives into the Midwest of the US.By early Sunday afternoon, the system will be over Illinois, with snow spreading east: 1pm I think snow will start off light in the early afternoon, but will pick up in intensity as the storm makes its way into Indiana and southern Ohio in the early evening: 7pmThe heaviest of the snow will fall in the evening, and then the snow will begin to taper off overnight as the system pushes east: 1amBy daybreak Monday, the worst of the storm will be long over, but it can still be snowing lightly and road crews will probably still be in "catch up" mode. 7amThe TRACK of the system is going to be very important as it will determine where the heaviest band of snow sets up. A 50-100 mile change can make a big difference. Remember the map I showed at the top, indicating the disturbance that will become our storm is still over the Pacific? Until it gets over land and can be "sampled", the computer models will not have the optimum amount of information about the system "baked into" them. So, we likely will not have a high degree of confidence in the track until tomorrow.Have a look at a few dozen versions of the latest European model (in other words, the "ensemble" version of the model). Sunday afternoon the "L"s are packed pretty close together in Indiana, meaning the model has a decent amount of confidence in the location of the storm at that time: ens1pmBut by evening, the L's are a little more scattered...so the model is less sure where the center of the system will be at that time: ens7pmWant to be a meteorologist? Figuring this stuff out is FUN, I admit...like piecing together a puzzle. But it is also maddening because we know that the viewers/followers do not like uncertainty and one of the things that we are not great at is COMMUNICATING degrees of uncertainty. One of the hot topics in the field of meteorology is the communication of uncertainty and how we can be better.One way to communicate it is by using percentages. The odds of something happening. That's why I like these maps. Here's the NWS odds of more than 2" of snow with Sunday's storm: 2inchesVery good odds.   How about 4"? Here ya go: 4inchesPretty decent, 40-50% locally. Then the odds go way down for 6": 6inches So, as of Friday morning, I like a general 3-5" storm for the WFMJ viewing area. But again, this is not etched in stone. Check back often. I will have a full update on "Weather For Weather Geeks" this afternoon as well as on 21 News at 6&11. Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!Eric  

BLOG: Mid Winter Review, A Look Ahead

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Meteorological Winter (the 3 coldest months of the year) is now half over. So far, not bad right?? Sure January has been colder than average but it has not been particularly snowy. Overall this season has been much less severe than last year. So, how about some stats to back this up??As always, all statistics are from the Youngstown-Warren Airport in Vienna.Here's the overall picture: 1sthalfNotice the temperature is about 1/2 a degree above average. This is thanks to the mild December. January has actually been quite a bit colder than average so far. Snow totals are below average for December-January, but our SEASONAL total of 27.5" is near average. Remember November was cold and snowy.How do the numbers stack up compared to recent years?Temperature wise, December 2014 and the 1st half of January 2014 have been milder than the previous winter but much colder than 2012-2013 and 2011-2012: 1995-1996 was the coldest 1st half of winter in recent memory.avetemps Snowfall has been about 1/2 of last December 1-January 15. It's been our driest opening to winter since 2006-2007:  totalsnow Taking a look at the lower 48 states so far this season, the cold has been most prominent in the Plains states: wintertodateBut January has been quite cold in much of the country: jantodateThe recent cold has increased the ice coverage on the Great Lakes dramatically, especially on Lake Erie: lakesiceNotice the only open water left is in this patch in the eastern end, where the water is quite deep: erieAs extreme as last January was at times, it's interesting that the snow cover nationwide is quite a bit more extensive compared to one year ago today.2015: currentdepth2014: depthlastyear So, what lies ahead?? Over the next week, a pretty "ho-hum" weather pattern for us. But, the jet stream will undergo amplification for the last week of January. This will result in more consistent cold for our region.The jet stream now: jetnowAnd 9-10 days from now: jetjan26Notice the building ridge south of Alaska. If that migrates east, it will force arctic air into much of the country east of the Rockies. The models have been advertising that for a while now. Temperature anomalies for the last week of the month on the GFS ensemble model: 1015day Will the cold be accompanied by snow storms? Much too early to say in regards to the last week of the month. Again, the next week or so looks pretty quiet snow wise.Thanks for reading!Eric