BLOG: Major Winter Storm Pounces Sunday/Sunday Night

Good morning! As I promised last evening on Facebook and Twitter, this morning is the moment that we have to really hone in on the storm for Sunday and Sunday night. The computer models have come into pretty good agreement and have shifted the track of the system fairly substantially over the last 24 hours. What does this mean?SNOW! And potentially lots of it. Let's go step by step.At 7am Sunday, some light snow will be pushing in. Roads can get slick quickly Sunday morning even if the snow if light. By midday, steady snow will be ongoing..ands probably starting to pick up in intensity. 1pm:  As we are settling in to watch the Super Bowl (on 21 WFMJ, of course) it should be snowing at a good clip. Stay in if you can. Travel will be tough. From this point through the overnight hours, the snow will probably be pretty heavy. 1am: By daybreak Monday, the worst will be over but it roads are probably still going to be pretty messy. 7am: Ok, so how much snow are we looking at? One way to look at snow predictions is by examining the percent chance of an amount of snow accumulating. Sometimes this is more useful than "xx" number of inches, especially a couple of days from a storm. It helps convey the degree of confidence we have.NWS odds of more than 1" (through daybreak Monday. There can be small additional accumulations after that point).  Really high: 2 inches: 4 inches: 6 inches: and finally 8 inches: I think these percentages are reasonable and would not be surprised if they are raised a bit later today, especially north of I-70.Here's our initial snow forecast. Keep in mind....this is the FIRST stab. As you know, a wobble in the expected storm track can sometimes make a big difference. CHECK THE FORECAST OFTEN TODAY AND TOMORROW on social media, TV and wfmj.com. This has the potential to be our biggest snow event of the season so far.Keep in mind: This will be an almost 24 hour event! Plan accordingly.Impacts on roads will be high and I suspect Monday will feature plenty of school delays or cancellations. Much more this afternoon on "Weather For Weather Geeks", Facebook and Twitter. A full update on 21 News at 6&11. Thanks for reading!Eric