Does a Cold, Snowy November Mean a Cold, Snowy Winter?

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After this week's snowstorm and the unrelenting cold at the end of the month, November 2013 will go down as one of the coldest, snowiest Novembers on record in Youngstown. But, does this tell us anything about the upcoming Winter?Not much!I looked at the 4 snowiest Novembers in Youngstown since 1930 and then looked at how much snow fell in the December-March period following those Novembers.Following a very snowy November in 1950, the Winter of 1950-1951 was close to average:1950-1951November of 1967 was a snowy one. But the Winter of 1967-68 was not:1967-1968After a white November of 1971, the Winter was not bad:1971-72Only the Winter of 2008-09 had ABOVE average snowfall after a snowy November:2008-2009What about temperatures? This November will probably crack the Top 10 Novembers on record in Youngstown. Looking at the rest of the Top 10, less than HALF (4 out of 10) Winters were colder than average following a frigid November.Bottom line: don't read too much into this unusually wintry November. It does not necessarily mean we are in for a long, snowy Winter.-Eric 

Biggest November Snow Event in 42 Years in Youngstown

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I was crunching some numbers this evening and this will probably be the biggest snow event in Youngstown since 1971. Here is that month's weather statistics:1971snow About 14.5 inches of snow fell in the 21st and 22nd.This comes on the heels of the coldest November day since 1976 on Sunday! What a week. This morning's lows were the coldest since February:NWS Mesonet Observations Based on the latest data, our forecast of 5-10" for the majority of the WFMJ viewing area looks good this evening.Here's the latest NAM Model snow totals through daybreak Wednesday:namsnowThe purple color indicates more than 6 inches. During the day Wednesday, LAKE-EFFECT may add another few inches to this, especially north of I-80.Have a great evening!-Eric  

Update on the Weekend and Thanksgiving Week

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Before we get to the weekend, take a look at this evening's temperatures. This arctic front means business!currentOur forecast for the weekend looks to be on track. Saturday will bring highs in the 30s and afternoon/evening flurries.  The wind will make it feel like it is no higher than the 20s. Snow showers will be most common Saturday night as the true arctic air surges in. As far as accumulations, I think most of the WFMJ viewing area will get a coating to an inch. There can be up to a few inches in northern Trumbull and northern Mercer counties.I like to use something called the "Short Range Ensemble Forecast" model. Like all "ensemble" models, it is a model that is run several times, each time with it's initial conditions slightly tweaked. The tweaking of the initial conditions (temperature, humidity, etc) results in a different outcome each time. If the outcomes are not TOO different, it gives us more confidence in the forecast. If they are VERY different, it means that this will be a tough forecast and I should consider putting my head down for some quiet time.Here's the most recent SREF snow forecast for the Youngstown-Warren airport in southeast Trumbull County:NCEP SREF Plume ViewerThere are a few stragglers above 2", but most of the "members" are below 2" and the mean, or average, is 1". So, that jives pretty well with our forecast. Again, there could be more closer to the traditional NE Ohio/NW PA snowbelt.Wind chills Sunday will be in the teens in the afternoon and single digits in the morning and evening. Yuck.aint-nobody-got-time-for-thatWhat about that busy travel day right before Thanksgiving? There are some disagreements among the computer models when it comes to the East Coast. Traveling west? No weather worries. Heading east? Here's the deal. The European model (top left) has a pretty healthy snowstorm for the Northeast US, away from the coast. The Canadian model (upper right)  has a more "out to sea" idea. The American GFS model (bottom) keeps precipitation in the Southeast, then goes out to sea. What do II think?? I suspect the European idea will be closest to the truth.3modelsBottom Line: Whichever ends up being right, odds favor a quiet Wednesday and a quiet and cold Thanksgiving in the Youngstown area. Not traveling? Looks good.IF there is an East Coast storm, that may cause a chain reaction of travel delays at airports across the country, so keep that in mind if you are flying.The European, the snowiest model, has this kind of accumulation Tuesday night into Wednesday:snowtuenightwedOver a foot in parts of New England.As far as I am concerned, they can keep it!-Eric 

A Look At This Weekend Through Thanksgiving

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Hey everyone....keeping in mind that Thanksgiving is 9 days away and much can change between now and then, I thought it might be useful to take a look at how things are shaping up as we head toward the holiday.First of all the COLDEST air of the season so far is coming this weekend. And with the cold will come WIND. Sunday will be downright brutal, especially for November. Take a look at projected wind chills Sunday afternoon:chillssunThose are AFTERNOON readings in the single digits and teens.What about snow? Well the lake-effect machine will get going this weekend, especially Saturday night and Sunday. The snowbelts will likely get enough to shovel and plow, although it will not be a crippling accumulation by any means.Total snow Saturday through Sunday night on European model (LEFT) and GFS model (RIGHT). Both have similar idea: General coating to 1" or so south of I-80; a few/several inches in primary snowbelts of NE OH, NW PA.snowcompareThe day before Thanksgiving is one of, if not THE busiest travel day of the year. If you are traveling, here's what the current models look like that day.The European, on LEFT, has a cold, but largely quiet day in the Northeast with some lake-effect snow around the Great Lakes. Rain in the Southeast. Dry Plains and West. The GFS, on the RIGHT, suggests rain along the Gulf Coast, snow showers around the Great Lakes and quiet weather elsewhere.wedscompareWhat about Thanksgiving itself? The models sing a bit of a different tune that day. The European, on LEFT, has a very quiet day nationwide. The GFS, on RIGHT, brings rain and perhaps mixed precipitation and/or snow to parts of the East, including the Mahoning Valley. Clearly we have a long way to go before we are confident about the forecast details for Thanksgiving day.tgivingcompareWhile the details are sketchy, the overall theme next week is COLD. Here is the temperature anomaly map for next Tuesday through the long Thanksgiving weekend. Lots of cold air in the east.anomHighs on Thanksgiving Day are likely to be no higher than 40, with a chance of it being closer to 30. Stay tuned!-Eric