A Look At This Weekend Through Thanksgiving

in

Hey everyone....keeping in mind that Thanksgiving is 9 days away and much can change between now and then, I thought it might be useful to take a look at how things are shaping up as we head toward the holiday.First of all the COLDEST air of the season so far is coming this weekend. And with the cold will come WIND. Sunday will be downright brutal, especially for November. Take a look at projected wind chills Sunday afternoon:chillssunThose are AFTERNOON readings in the single digits and teens.What about snow? Well the lake-effect machine will get going this weekend, especially Saturday night and Sunday. The snowbelts will likely get enough to shovel and plow, although it will not be a crippling accumulation by any means.Total snow Saturday through Sunday night on European model (LEFT) and GFS model (RIGHT). Both have similar idea: General coating to 1" or so south of I-80; a few/several inches in primary snowbelts of NE OH, NW PA.snowcompareThe day before Thanksgiving is one of, if not THE busiest travel day of the year. If you are traveling, here's what the current models look like that day.The European, on LEFT, has a cold, but largely quiet day in the Northeast with some lake-effect snow around the Great Lakes. Rain in the Southeast. Dry Plains and West. The GFS, on the RIGHT, suggests rain along the Gulf Coast, snow showers around the Great Lakes and quiet weather elsewhere.wedscompareWhat about Thanksgiving itself? The models sing a bit of a different tune that day. The European, on LEFT, has a very quiet day nationwide. The GFS, on RIGHT, brings rain and perhaps mixed precipitation and/or snow to parts of the East, including the Mahoning Valley. Clearly we have a long way to go before we are confident about the forecast details for Thanksgiving day.tgivingcompareWhile the details are sketchy, the overall theme next week is COLD. Here is the temperature anomaly map for next Tuesday through the long Thanksgiving weekend. Lots of cold air in the east.anomHighs on Thanksgiving Day are likely to be no higher than 40, with a chance of it being closer to 30. Stay tuned!-Eric