BLOG: MONDAY MORNING STORM UPDATE

in

GOOD MORNING!

First off all, we have some patchy freezing drizzle out there this morning. Be cautious as untreated surfaces can be slick.

THE STORM

Not a lot has changed since my 2 blog updates yesterday. Have a look.A lot....A LOT of people are "anxious", "excited", "confused" about the Weather Channel forecast of 8-12" they are seeing on TV/their crummy app this morning. You follow me and read this blog for MY opinion on the weather. I devote all my energy to getting MY forecast right and can't spend a lot of time thinking about/defending other's forecasts.This remains a VERY tricky situation because our cold, arctic air will be "routed" today, replaced by a milder air mass. This, along with the storm track, presents precipitation type challenges tonight. Some will get sleet, some freezing rain, many a heavy, wet goopy snow. And many will go back and forth between all of those things.

HIGH CONFIDENCE

  1. It will precipitate. :)
  2. Timing. Precipitation will arrive this evening between 8pm-11pm. The storm will exit by midday tomorrow with precipitation tapering off and ending between 9am-2pm from west to east.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

  1. Overall storm track. Low pressure will track across West Virginia and western PA tonight into tomorrow. gfs_ptype_slp_ma_5

LOW CONFIDENCE

  1. Precipitation type in your back yard. The temperature profile of the atmosphere will support a variety of precipitation types from roughly Youngstown south and east. It may vary throughout the night...sleet....freezing rain....wet snow. Here's a general idea: Feb 15-16 Precip Type
  2. Snow amounts. The high possibility of mixed precipitation will cut down on snow totals for many...but where it stays all snow this will be a pretty good storm. Our snow map is the same as it was yesterday but we will likely make some tweaks as the midday models roll in. Snow Forecast

IMPACTS

This will be a high impact storm. Some will get a heavy, wet, hard to shovel snow. Even with air temperatures at 32-34 degrees, rain could freeze on cold surfaces as we just had the coldest air of the season here over the weekend. There will likely be school adjustments.Winter Storm ImpactsMore updates throughout the day.