MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY STORM UPDATE — Chief Meteorologist Eric Wilhelm's Blog

Good morning everyone....just a quick blog about the winter storm threat for Monday night into Tuesday morning.

APPETIZER

There will be some light snow tonight into Monday but this is of little concern, probably a fresh coating to an inch for much of the area. Watch for slick spots in the morning. Many have the day off (Presidents Day). Temperatures will warm to about freezing Monday afternoon so it will feel tropical.

MAIN COURSE

Low pressure will track from the Deep South into the central Appalachians late Monday. The exact track of the low is very important to our forecast. Far enough west and enough mild air will get dragged into the Valley that we will see a mix and perhaps even rain for a time Monday night. Far enough east and the air will remain cold enough for all snow and there could be a decent dumping of heavy, wet snow.The models, as of 9am, are not in great agreement on the track. This is giving us headaches.I put out this graphic yesterday and still think it is reasonable for most of our area.I DO think that the odds of 4"+ are highest in the western half of our viewing area...farther from the possible mild air intrusion.Current model snowfall for Vienna area (airport): Model Snowfall Graph Here's a preliminary breakdown of the possible timing of precipitation types. Precip Type and Timing Am going to wait for the full run of morning models and then have a bigger update, including a snow map, this afternoon.