BLOG+VIDEO: Breaking Down The Weekend Storm

http://youtu.be/4qaO3Xo2cQ0 The video in this blog post has some details on the cold and wind chills over the next 24 hours. Let's talk about the weekend storm. It seems like we are in a pattern where we have a winter storm every weekend....I blame Mike Joyce; him leaving angered the Weather Gods, haha.This will not be a huge, blockbuster storm but will be an inconvenience.TIMING: By Saturday morning, light snow will have pushed into the viewing area. The snow will continue at varying intensity for much of the day. Some of the time it will be light. Other times it will fall at a good clip, especially in the afternoon. 4pm: The precipitation will taper off overnight with most of the accumulating snow finished by midnight at the latest. MODELSThe computer models we use to help us with the forecast are generally in pretty good agreement at this stage of the game when it comes to the timing of the system. The track is not "set in stone" by any means as there are some differences found on the various models.Current average among this set of models is about 3" of snow at the YNG airport. The European models is not included in this average; it has about 4". IMPACTSTravel will be impacted all day, especially in the afternoon. Cumulative accumulations by 7am: Around 1/2"-1"Cumulative accumulations by noon: 1-2.5"Cumulative accumulations by 10pm: 3-5" FORECAST We think the most likely accumulation is 3-5", based on the current models and other factors. WHAT CAN GO WRONG? 1) The lower end of the forecast is more likely if mixed precipitation or even rain gets involved Saturday evening. This looked more likely yesterday; we have to be on guard for a last-minute adjustment in the modeling back to this idea. Best chance for sleet and/or rain will be around and south of Rt 30.The lower end could also be more likely if the snow is very light all morning with little accumulation.2) The high end of the range or even a bit more could happen if some heavy banding sets up in the afternoon and there is no mixing with sleet/rain.