BLOG: Severe Weather Threat Today/Tonight

Will try and keep this brief as the American Meteorological Society Conference on Broadcast Meteorology is getting underway this morning in beautiful, but COLD Lake Tahoe, CA.The atmosphere is going to be primed to produce some heavy thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. While the timing is not set in stone as I write this, we just have to be on our toes.How nasty things get this afternoon will probably depend on what happens with this line of storms west of Chicago (at 10:25 Eastern): IF that holds together, it can be a problem for NE Ohio and western PA this afternoon...but I am not sure yet if it will. IF it fizzles, activity will likely be quite spotty...but any spotty storm could be quite nasty.The Storm Prediction Center odds for damaging winds is up to 30% (within 25 miles of any location) for much of the region this afternoon and tonight. Damaging winds and flooding are EASILY the 2 biggest concerns. That said, there can be hail as well. Odds of large hail within 25 miles of any location are about 15%: An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in any storm, but the odds are quite low, 2%: IF this afternoon ends up not being particularly active, tonight could bring the most trouble. Latest hi-res models want to bring a nasty, bowing line of storms into Ohio after sunset. Here's the 10pm simulated radar: Remember, this is just a MODEL and may not have the right timing/ideas. Certainly our confidence in storm timing and impacts will increase throughout the day today. Thanks for reading!Eric