Weather For Weather Geeks June 28
https://youtu.be/_ZFlM3569NM
Weather For Weather Geeks June 27
https://youtu.be/7ZA08sUF2vY
BLOG: Two Stormy Evenings Ahead
Good Tuesday morning,After a period of quiet weather, things will turn active over the next couple of days. This includes the chance for some hefty thunderstorms and perhaps severe weather.
TODAY
This morning's weather map shows a cold front on the move across the middle of the country.
This front will sag into northern Ohio this evening. The air mass the front will be running into will be warm and moderately humid (by April standards) and this should result in some showers and thunderstorms cropping up. The TIMING is tricky as of this writing. Our two highest-resolution models have distinctly different ideas as to when storms are most likely. The HRRR model shows them around dinnertime:
While the NAM holds the activity off until much later in the evening.
What do I think? It's a tough call right now because both models are doing a pretty good job depicting what is ACTUALLY occurring "upstream" in the Plains. So it's hard to discount one of these ideas yet. We should have a better handle on the timing by midday today. For now, let's just say storms are possible starting late afternoon and taking us through the evening. Have outdoor plans? Check the forecast often today. It will change as we get new information.Severe weather risk? This evening's storms will have a modestly unstable air mass to feed off. Any of the taller, stronger storms could drop some small hail and have briefly strong winds. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of NE Ohio in the "Marginal" risk for severe weather.
WEATHER NERD STUFF: This evening's model "sounding" of the atmosphere over our heads shows some wind shear, which would help the storms mature. A decent amount of instability is shown as well.
TOMORROW EVENING'S THREAT
A HIGHER risk of severe weather exists tomorrow evening. That's because our region will find itself firmly in some very warm, summer-like air tomorrow and then a fairly strong cold front will track into that air mass late in the day.Highs tomorrow will be well into the 70s.
Meanwhile, moisture-laden air will stream northward, making it feel even more like summer...especially in western and central Ohio.
The atmosphere should turn unstable...quite a bit more unstable than today.
The Storm Prediction Center has parts of the region in the "Slight" risk, a category higher than today's "Marginal".
The primary threat locally will be damaging winds but there can be some decent size hail in the stronger storms. An isolated tornado can't totally be discounted, although the risk is somewhat higher west of I-71. 
Timing: Most likely 7pm-11pm.
Severe weather reminders:
BLOG: Easter Weekend Outlook
Easter is coming up this Sunday and this is certainly a holiday in which in the weather can impact many people's plans.First a little history. The last few Easters have been quite nice across our region with mild and largely dry weather:
No extremes lately and nothing like the snowy start to the day we had in 1994. The date of Easter varies quite a bit, ranging from late March to mid April so the historical weather varies quite a bit too. No surprise that the coldest high temperature occurred when Easter was on one of the earliest possible dates for the holiday.
THIS YEAR
Another warm up is on the way for the weekend but it will come at a price. Saturday still looks like the warmer and drier of the two days although the warm front can still trigger spotty shower and thunderstorm activity.
On Easter, a cold front will push in from the west, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK?
Right now the risk for severe storms does not look all that high, with perhaps higher chances in SE Ohio and SW PA. But I don't want to take the possibility of heavier storms off the table yet, it's still early.
TIMING
If you are planning your egg roll or anything else the weather can impact, here's my first shot at hourly rain chances Sunday:7am: 10%8am: 10%9am: 20%10am: 30%11am: 30%12pm: 40%1pm: 40%2pm: 60%3pm: 70%4pm: 70%5pm: 70%6pm: 60%7pm: 60%8pm: 40%Temperatures look warm all weekend. Sunrise temperatures on Sunday: 
Highs will be in the lower 70s.
Blog: Rain Then Accumulating Wet Snow
Early April can be a real "up and down" time for our region weatherwise. Wild temperature swings and different modes of precipitation are not uncommon.With that in mind, buckle up! We are going to see a few different seasons between now and early next week.
RAINY NIGHT, RAW AND WET THURSDAY
A storm system continues to chug east through the Midwest this morning. It's already producing severe weather in the Southeast and it will be a very, very busy day and night for forecasters in this region.
The severe weather risk is quite high from roughly the Ohio River to the Gulf Coast and over to parts of the Carolinas today into tonight.
It will not take much to get storms to rotate today, especially later on.
Notice that the Valley is not in one of the higher risk categories. While there may be thunder here tonight, the ingredients for severe weather will thankfully not come together around here. 18 hour hi-res futurecast shows how things should evolve through midnight or so:
Rain will continue for much of Thursday. Temperatures will fall and the breeze will make it feel even colder. A good day for a nap.
Rainfall totals of up to 1 inch are quite possible.
Rivers and streams are running high and we may see "the usual suspects" go above flood stage by Friday. Mahoning River at Leavittsburg, Eagle Creek in SW Trumbull County included. Current forecast does not show that but I suspect that will change.
THE STORY WITH THE SNOW
This system will deepen and slow down and this process will help it to "manufacture" it's own cold air. It will be cold enough for wet snow to start falling late Thursday night and throughout Friday. 
The IMPACTS from this snow will not be very high because of the warm ground and marginal air temperatures. Roads should be largely fine. But non-paved surfaces can pick up accumulation. Decks, car tops and of course the grass can all get covered fairly easily.
The highest impact for travelers will be reductions in visibility.
Snow accumulation on non-paved surfaces could be fairly impressive. Here's our current model spread:
The odds of 1" or more look pretty high. European model odds:
3" or more:
I suspect we'll come out with a forecast of something like 1-3" of wet snow later today. Stay tuned. Thankfully the there is not much leafage on the trees just yet or we'd be more concerned with power outages as a result of sagging tree limbs. The gusty wind should also help keep the trees and power lines "cleaner" than if it were calm.Unusual for early April? Not really.
Boy will it melt in a hurry! Muddy yards galore this weekend...otherwise, very nice weekend coming up.
Severe Weather Awareness Week in Ohio
SPRING is here at last! The days are getting longer, average high and low temperatures are rising quickly and soon(ish) things will be in full bloom across northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania. The changing of the seasons is also characterized but an increased risk of thunderstorms. While many thunderstorms are "run of the mill" with some briefly heavy rain and vivid lightning some are "severe"; these storms have a higher likelihood of producing damaging winds, impactful hail and even tornadoes.This week is Severe Weather Awareness Week in Ohio, the week we like to remind everyone to be Weather Aware....be informed and have a plan if and when severe weather strikes.For more information: http://www.weathersafety.ohio.gov/
WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AND A SEVERE ONE?
While many thunderstorms are dark and scary and loud, only some reach the threshold of being "severe". It is important to note that ALL thunderstorms are dangerous. Even a "weak" storm can generate a lightning bolt that causes damage to life and property. Somewhat ironically, a thunderstorms is not determined to be "severe" by two of the more impactful aspects of a storm: lightning and rain. It's wind, hail and the possible presence of a tornado.Meteorologists warn of a severe thunderstorm and/or a tornado by issuing a Warning. The "official" warnings are generated by meteorologists at the National Weather Service. In our area, The NWS in Cleveland serves Mahoning and Trumbull counties while NWS Pittsburgh serves Columbiana, Lawrence and Mercer counties.One of the point of confusion among some is the difference between a watch and a warning.Another way of looking at it:
FLOODING: AN UNDERRATED RISK
Tornadoes get all the buzz, but the #1 most impactful type of weather hazard in the Spring and Summer is rain and flooding. Year after year the weather enterprise preaches "turn around, don't drown" but invariably we see dozens of clips each year of cars submerged in water. It takes a surprisingly small amount of moving water to carry away even the largest of vehicles.
A friendly reminder that the law requires you to have your headlights on if it is precipitating hard enough that your wipers are in use.
OH, HAIL NO
Hail can be very dangerous. Thankfully in our part of the country very large hail is rare. But hail large enough to cause damage (usually 1" or larger) can and will occur occasionally.
LET'S TALK TORNADOES
Tornadoes are, thankfully, rare in our region but they are still the type of severe weather that gets all the buzz.They may be rare but of course they do happen! This map shows all the tornadoes across the region from 1950-2014.
Interesting to note some of the patterns on this map. There has been a lack of tornadoes in southeast Columbiana County, for example.A breakdown of tornado stats by state. Of course tornadoes are more common in western Ohio than eastern Ohio. Pennsylvania averages somewhat fewer tornadoes, partly owing to the mountainous interior of the state.
STAYING SAFE
It is important for every household to have a plan in case severe weather (and especially) a tornado strikes. Get to the lowest level of your home and (very important!) get away from windows. Flying glass injures or kills many people.
Some other good information from weathersafety.ohio.gov:
TORNADO MYTHS
All types of weather come with myths and old wive's tales. All of us grew up thinking certain things because a grandma or uncle told us it was true. Many of these "nuggets" simply are not true, however and some could even put you in grave danger. A few tornado myths:
Another weather myth, one that is decidedly more harmless than tornado myths is "heat lightning". Heat lightning is not a thing!
GETTING WARNED OF SEVERE WEATHER
One of the great things about living in 2017 is that the majority of the population now has little computers in the pockets. As annoying as some of the, um, habits associated with smartphone use are, they are great tools for gathering weather information and being warned of dangerous weather.Nearly all weather apps, including the StormTracker 21 weather app, come with the ability to "push" weather warnings to you when they are issued. Additionally, you can sign up for text alerts at wfmj.com to get automatically texted when the NWS issues a warning.Weather radios are inexpensive, easy to program and a VERY reliable way to receive weather warnings. You can find many great ones online and at many retail stores that sell electronics.One of the LEAST effective methods of being warned, but one that many people still cling to, is a TORNADO SIREN. There are many, many problems with sirens. It can be argued that they do more harm than good.
WFMJ SEVERE WEATHER POLICY
#1 on the list of job responsibilities of any meteorologist, whether he/she is on TV or not, is the protection of lives and property. We will stop at nothing, including interrupting your favorite show, to help someone be safe. Our general policy when it comes to preempting programming is similar to nearly all television stations across the country. If a Tornado Warning is issued for a part of our viewing area, we are going to be on TV warning about it.Of course, we won't just be on TV. Another great thing about living in the digital age is the ability to reach people instantly via social media, streaming video, Facebook Live, etc.Inevitably if we interrupt programming, some who are not being impacted by the weather and just want to watch their show will complain. We understand it can be frustrating but we are going to do it anyway. If even ONE life is spared by information they saw or heard us give on TV then it's absolutely worth it.We'll be talking more about severe weather safety, tips, statistics, etc all week on 21 News and our social media outlets.The statewide tornado drill is Wednesday at 9:50am.
Blog: Any Signs of Spring?
After a record-breaking February, boy have we seen a pattern reversal in the month of March. The month is halfway over so I thought I would take a moment to examine the numbers and talk about the upcoming weather pattern.The first half of March has been cold, but record cold? Not even close. In fact, it's been pretty "ordinary"...colder than average, yes but nowhere near the top of the list of coldest starts to March.
What HAS been unusual is the amount of snow. The first half of the month featured the 2nd highest amount of snow on record for March 1-15.
In fact, the first half of March has been snowier than JANUARY AND FEBRUARY COMBINED. Wow!How unusual is such a dramatic pattern flip from February to March? I looked back at the top 20 warmest Februarys on record in Youngstown (excluding #1, 2017) and only 5 times (25%) was the very warm February followed by a cold March. Most recently in 1999 and 2001. So, it's unusual but certainly not unheard of.Astronomical Spring begins on Monday (at 6:29am to be exact).
So are there any signs of the pattern flipping to warmth like we had at the end of February??It seems unlikely through the end of March. The European model keeps the cool shots coming with a northwest flow: 
The US Climate Model has a cool look as well.
Keep in mind, averages are rising FAST at this time of the year. Our average high hits 50 in 9 days. So a "cool" day in late March is in the 40s.I DO think that we are done with the kind of severe cold we have had this week. It gets very hard to sustain this kind of cold as we get into late March. The sun is as strong now as it is in late September.
Weather For Weather Geeks March 14
https://youtu.be/66d_a0rN9nI
Weather For Weather Geeks March 10
https://youtu.be/q_s40DpiRFk
BLOG: UPDATE ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING SNOW
A quick update this morning on a fairly minor (although impactful) snow event coming our way Thursday night into Friday morning.
THE SETUP
Cold, arctic air will be on the move across the northern Plains and Rockies and will run into a much warmer air mass to the south. An area of low pressure will ride along the boundary between those air masses and cause precipitation to break out here by early tomorrow evening.
Temperatures locally will be in the mid 40s before the precipitation arrives tomorrow...and this will be important. The ground will be warm and it will take a while for snow to start sticking efficiently. More on that in a second.
TIMING
Precipitation will arrive between 4pm-7pm on average and will fall in the form of RAIN initially. Snow will start mixing in, first in the north then in southern areas, as we go deeper into the evening.
Everyone will see a changeover to snow overnight. The snow will be heaviest and have the easiest time accumulating after midnight.
The snow will taper to flurries Friday morning and midday.
ACCUMULATIONS
I think the graphic I showed last evening still works pretty well for much of the area. The highest odds are for an accumulation around 1.5"-2.0" but there is a chance for higher accumulations, especially in western PA.
This is still a pretty tricky forecast. Our best-performing model (overall....even it does have bad days), the European, is less impressed with the snow. This makes me skeptical about the higher amounts shown on some of the other modeling. The European is the purple line.
It's March and will be quite mild before the snow arrives. Some of the liquid with this storm will be "wasted" on rain/mixing and snow falling with temperatures around 32-34. This can lead to lower snow amounts. The one thing it has going for it is the snow is falling at night. If this came during the day, even with temperatures near freezing, hardly anything would stick on paved surfaces.
IMPACTS
Look for increasingly slick conditions late at night, mainly after midnight. I would expect some 2 hour school delays for some districts Friday morning. This snow will be MUCH different than the snow we had late last week. This will be much wetter, great for making snowballs but harder to shovel.
WINTER NOT OVER
The weekend storm will be a miss for us, but I have increasing confidence we will be impacted by snow early next week...probably Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile....enjoy the sunshine today but WIND is the story! Gusts to 50 mph later.
BLOG: STORMS AND RUMORS OF STORMS
Good Monday morning......It's going to be a busy week of weather with winter and spring dooking it out. Pretty typical of March, actually. The week will start on a cloudy and mild note today. A warm front is crossing the region this morning and a few widely scattered showers/sprinkles are accompanying it.
Temperatures will climb pretty easily into the lower and mid 50s today.
As strong low pressure tracks across the country over the next 12-18 hours, severe weather will become likely for parts of the Midwest. Thankfully that will not be a problem for us.
This simulated radar shows us getting wet tonight and tomorrow....free car wash time. Plan on a wet and windy Tuesday.
Rain totals are likely to average 0.50"-1.00" with this event.
Behind the front, still quite mild and windy Wednesday with some sunshine.
WINTRY WEEKEND?
A classic springtime battle between warm and cold looks to set up very late this week and weekend. Very cold air will be trying to infiltrate the country from the north while at the same time unusually warm air will not be looking to leave the stage without a fight.
The result will be a storm, somewhere. Where? That is what we don't know just yet. Just know that the weekend will bring the chance for snow/ice/mixed precipitation. If everything came together just right it could be a significant storm. There are also scenarios on the table in which the cold air presses the storm so far south it essentially misses us.Pay careful attention to the forecast over the next several days! It's likely to be changeable.
Tuesday Morning Video Blog: Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow
https://youtu.be/ocLuN37dFeA
BLOG: Busy Week of Weather Ahead
GOOD MORNING!
As meteorological winter draws to a close and meteorological spring revs up this week, it promises to be a bit of a bumpy transition. Let's break things down day by day.
TODAY
A milder day today but not as sunny as yesterday turned out to be. There can be a touch of rain this afternoon in some spots...may not amount to much more than sprinkles. Hi-res futurecast:
High temperatures today will be several degrees above average (which is near 40).
TUESDAY
A warm front will lift northward across the region Tuesday, resulting in a balmy day but with the threat of spotty showers. This is another April/May-like system and so not only will temperatures be more like that time of the year but a severe weather threat exists to our south and west Tuesday into Tuesday night. While a rumble of thunder is possible here, we are not looking for string storms just yet. Highs locally in the upper 50s Tuesday as February ends.
WEDNESDAY
The system will push east on Wednesday and will drag a cold front into the region. The air ahead of the front will be moist and unstable (especially for March 1) so we expect showers and thunderstorms to get going. A squall line of storms will be possible, especially before 2pm. NAM model depiction: 
The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a low risk for severe weather. Guess I would not be surprised to see the "Slight: risk area (yellow) get pulled a but farther north in western PA.
By far and away the #1 risk with any storms will be wind. Even outside of thunderstorms, Wednesday and Wednesday night will be quite windy with some gusts to 40-45 mph possible. Rain totals over the next few days of up to 1 inch will be possible (but locally higher amounts can occur in storms).
By Wednesday night the colder air will be pushing in and we can see some snowflakes.
THURSDAY NIGHT: SNEAKY CLIPPER?
The models are trying to latch onto a weak low pressure system (a "clipper") that will cross the region late Thursday and Thursday night. This may bring little or no snow to the region or if the track is right, a couple of inches. We don't know yet and will firm up this forecast in the next couple of days.
LONGER RANGE:
Ups and downs but there will be some shots of cold during the first half of March. More than we had in February!
PROGRAMMING NOTE: MY SPRING OUTLOOK WILL AIR LATER THIS WEEK, PROBABLY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WE'LL REVIEW THE (NOT GREAT) WINTER FORECAST AS WELL.
Thursday Morning Video Blog: Action-Packed 72 Hours
https://youtu.be/xt0G-hWExBs
Wednesday Morning (2/22/17) Video Blog
https://youtu.be/R_0SQXk74v0
BLOG: UPDATE ON WARMTH, LONGER-RANGE FORECAST
This stretch of weather has been unbelievable and it is far from over. The warmest weather is STILL to come.Today won't be as bright and sunny as we have a very weak front heading our way. Radar looks ominous, but much of this will shrivel up as it heads into drier air over our region.
Hi-res futurecast....not much more than a passing shower or sprinkle late today.
Highs today: SPRING FEVER. 70s in central and southern Ohio.
We are not alone. These maps are based on the NWS forecasts, which are somewhat different than ours locally. Each circle represents a tied or broken record in the forecast. 
Our current forecast. I suspect we will be taking tomorrow's expected high up a few degrees. 
A high of 70 or higher is VERY rare here. All of FIVE occurrences since 1930!
We are quickly climbing the list of warmest Februarys in Youngstown.
The warmth will peak ahead of a strong cold front on Friday. While we may hear thunder Friday night, there is a concern for severe weather to our west during Friday. 
Then a big change. Temperatures will fall all day Saturday and we might even see snowflakes in the air by the end of the day.
The weekend cool down in just a "pause" though. Next week will not be as warm as this week but still quite mild!
Weather For Weather Geeks February 10
https://youtu.be/jZ3K0dl0IRY
Tuesday AM Video Blog: Rain Today, Snow Tomorrow
https://youtu.be/DnsY6bU-a6k
Weather For Weather Geeks February 1
https://youtu.be/4qPUkGJ8Vzc
Wednesday (Jan 25) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
We'll finally see an interval of sunshine this morning as this area of clearing works in from the west:
That's the good news. The bad news is that this sunny break will be followed by some rain for this afternoon. Current radar shows it in western Ohio and Indiana: 
We should see some raindrops by 2pm on average. Simulated radar(s):
Temperatures will climb into the upper 40s today; our last balmy day for a while.
WINTER RETURNS
A much different day tomorrow with gusty winds, steady temperatures in the 30s and frequent snow showers. The snow could come down rather heavily at times , actually.
BUT, it will have a hard time sticking on paved surfaces. Air temperatures will be above freezing and road temperatures will still be warm. Current road temperatures:
So, while your grass may get covered and you may have to brush off your car, I am not expecting the snow to be a high-impact thing tomorrow during the day. At night, as temepratures drop below freezing, the snow be a little more impactful. Watch for slick spots Friday morning.Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be pretty similar with occasional flurries/snow showers and cold, gusty winds. 
Cumulatively, a few/several inches of snow may accumulate in our northern viewing area by the end of the weekend.Wind chills Friday-Monday will be largely in the teens and 20s.
The cold, while not extreme at all (and pretty lame by late January/early February standards) will hang around for a while.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
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