Tuesday (1/24) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING....

A cold rain to start our Tuesday in many places and a few wet snowflakes have tried to mix in as well. Radar as of 8:30 or so:Click to EnlargeTemperatures will struggle today yet it will still be ABOVE average with highs in the upper 30s to about 40. 15 hour futurecast shows a drying trend by midday but I suspect spotty light rain/drizzle will return by this evening.Click to EnlargeThe mild air will return for a one-day encore performance Wednesday with highs eclipsing the 50 degree mark:Click to EnlargeSpotty rain showers will be around in the afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front.Click to Enlarge

WINTER!

Winter's return starts Thursday. It's not going to be the kind of pattern that produces uber cold by any stretch but it will finally feel like "normal" for a while. Snow showers and gusty winds Thursday; might be some small accumulations on non-paved surfaces but roads will be wet with temperatures in the mid 30s and a warm ground.Click to EnlargeFriday through the weekend will be colder than Thursday with gusty winds and occasional snow showers and flurries. The "nickel and dime" effect may lead to a total accumulation of a few inches, mainly north of I-80 by the end of the weekend.Click to EnlargeWind chills will be mainly in the teens each afternoon.

LONG RANGE

No signs of harsh arctic cold in the longer range. The jet stream by the weekend and early next week has a cold look to it with a "cross polar flow" setting up.Click to EnlargeBUT the source region of our air mass won't be crazy cold so this is not the kind of thing that will lead to way below-average temperatures for us. Pretty "standard" winter cold.Click to Enlarge

FEBRUARY THOUGHTS

We are a week away from the end of the month and it's time to get serious about the February forecast. The models continue to show the core of the cold staying out west in February. I suspect February will be colder than January but perhaps still warmer-than-average by some degree. More chances for snow compared to January but lots of "slop" storms too (storms that bring mixed precip).We'll put out an "official" forecast late this week or early next week. 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Monday (January 23) Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Hope your weekend was a good one. Some significant changes to the weather pattern this week although we are certainly not headed into the Deep Freeze anytime soon.If January ended today, this month would not quite crack the top 10 warmest on record in Youngstown:Click to Enlarge The storm that devastated parts of the Deep South over the weekend is still meandering through the Southeast this morning. A very strong low pressure system for it not being tropical in nature.Click To Enlarge Thankfully severe weather will not continue today. Here at home that storm will throw moisture our way and we can expect periods of rain today. Hi-res futurecast:Click To Enlarge Most have picked up a tenth to two-tenths of an inch so far and we can expect around another 0.75" on average.Click To Enlarge Temperatures are going nowhere today, holding about steady and then gently falling. Readings will end up a handful of degrees colder than they are now by the end of the afternoon.Click To Enlarge By tomorrow morning the air column will have cooled enough that there might be a few wet snowflakes seen in our viewing area, especially toward I-79 in PA. No accumulation is expected.Click To Enlarge BUT if you are traveling farther east than that, snow WILL accumulate in the higher terrain of central and northern Pennsylvania. I-80 will be tough sledding all the way across. Click To Enlarge

 REST OF WEEK

A brief warm up Wednesday with temperatures returning to the balmy 50s....a couple of rain showers will be around ahead of the next front.Click To Enlarge Behind the front, WINTER! What a concept. Not super cold or anything but finally back to average. Snow showers and gusty winds Thursday and Friday. Some local accumulations of snow will be possible, mainly north of I-80. It is not likely to be much.thurssssfridayyy

LONG RANGE

Pretty "average" mid winter weather is likely for a while.Click To Enlarge The modeling is shifting toward a warmer February. We may end up with another warmer-than-average month, sealing Winter 2016-2017 as a mild one. Notice the trend toward warmth over the last several runs:Click To Enlarge

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

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GOOD MORNING!

We had a little more damp weather overnight and a touch of drizzle can still be found this morning. Over the next 24 hours, the radar can be a bit "deceiving" as it will look quiet even though drizzle could be falling out of a low deck of clouds. Notice this morning: no green on the radar but observations of drizzle are common (green boxes):Click to EnlargeTemperatures are in the upper 30s and they will stay there all day. A real "flat line" temperature trace today.Click to EnlargeAlthough not much drizzle will fall this afternoon, the data suggests that light rain/drizzle will probably return this evening. Notice the fairly deep layer of saturated air in the low levels of the atmosphere:Click to EnlargeMight have to watch for patchy fog tonight as well.Thursday will be a nicer day....after a cloudy start we expect some midday and afternoon sunshine with highs in the upper 40s.Click to EnlargeA period of rain is likely on Friday but it will still be quite mild.Click to Enlarge

THE WEEKEND

Near-record warmth is on the way for Saturday. The record high of 59 may be broken. We look to stay dry as well! Enjoy!Click to EnlargeOn Sunday, that old boundary will come back north and this will lead to a good chance for afternoon and nighttime showers.Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE

The pattern will certainly shift toward more "average" mid-winter weather toward the end of next week and the end of the month. Does not look super cold but just back to what you expect at this time of the year.Click to Enlarge Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeIn case you missed this yesterday....winters are not getting "less snowy", in fact just the opposite! This surprises many people who think the winters of the 70s and 80s were much snowier.Click to Enlarge 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Tuesday (1/17) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING.....

As expected, a soggy night and we are off to a damp start this morning. Local rainfall amounts through 8:45am:Click to EnlargeRadar as of 8:55am showed spotty showers around the region; there has been some lightning near Sandusky. nowraddHere's the hi-res futurecast, showing not a LOT of activity this afternoon but spotty showers and areas of drizzle will remain a possibility.Click to EnlargeAt least it is mild! Temperatures today soar into the mid 50s; the record high is 58, set in 1952.Click to Enlarge

DAMP, COOLER WEDNESDAY

In the wake of a weak cool front, Wednesday will be about 15 degrees cooler than today (but still above average!).Click to EnlargeA lot of low stratus clouds overhead Wednesday and a little rain/drizzle can fall out of them occasionally. Might be some fog here and there as well.Click to Enlarge

REST OF WEEK

A "dirty" high pressure system will move overhead Thursday. What does that mean? It won't be as clear as it usually is with a high right overhead. Hopefully we will see some sunshine. A mild day nonetheless.  Click to EnlargeRain is likely Friday, mostly in the midday and afternoon hours as the next surge of unseasonably warm air heads in our direction.Click to Enlarge

WEEKEND

I suspect Saturday is the better half of the weekend with not much more than a passing shower and temperatures in the 50s.Click to EnlargeSunday may bring more substantial rain before the day is through.Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE

As we have been talking about, a colder, more typical temperature regime should arrive by the end of the month; we expect February to be much more like December.Click to Enlarge

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Monday (1/16) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

It's MLK day and many have the day off. What kind of day will it be? Well, "ok" I guess. Fairly cloudy but not that cold by this afternoon as temperatures rise into the mid/upper 30s. The weather map shows a warm front heading our way:Click to EnlargeNote the icy mess continuing in parts of the middle of the country. That warm front will lift into the Valley late today and there will be some rain showers around by dinnertime. 18 hour simulated radar:Click to EnlargeRain is most likely from mid-evening through the overnight hours. As many head back to work and school Tuesday morning, I expect rain to dampen most areas.Click to EnlargeWhile the steadiest rain will occur in the morning, some drizzle/spotty showers can linger in the afternoon.Click to EnlargeMost short-range modeling gives us around 0.50"-0.60" of rain through Tuesday.Click to EnlargeThe NWS forecast is in agreement:Click to EnlargeDespite the rain,  Tuesday will be quite balmy with highs at least 20 degrees above average.Click to EnlargeI would not be surprised if a shower or two lingered into Wednesday but overall the day looks "less wet".Click to EnlargeA calm day on the way Thursday.Click to EnlargeRain looks to return ahead of the next system Friday.Click to Enlarge

JANUARY THAW

Temperatures won't even come close to average through the next week. This is the coldest time of the year climtalogicaly speaking (average high: 32) so this is quite a treat. Temperatures during the upcoming weekend are likely to reach the 50s again and it looks largely dry, especially on Saturday.Click to EnlargeNote the cool down toward the end of the month. There are strong signals that the final handful of days of January will bring a return to more typical mid-winter weather. The cold will overtake much of the lower 48:Click to EnlargeI think February will be colder and stormier.

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

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Wednesday (1/11) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

An eventful 24 hours has come and gone and today will be a calmer day. Black ice was a problem early this morning; even though air temperatures were above freezing, the recent frigid weather allowed for ground objects to get down to the freezing mark. Leftover damp areas turned a bit slick.24 hour rain totals:Click to EnlargeThis morning, the front that brought the wet weather has slipped south. BUT, the boundary will creep back north as a warm front later today, resulting in a return of the raindrops just after sunset.Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeRain will visit on a few occasions tonight into Thursday, but that won't stop the temperature from going through the roof (by January standards). Readings should peak in the mid 50s Thursday.Click to EnlargeThe cold front that will put an end to the warmth (for a few days anyway) will roll through early Thursday afternoon. We can't rule out a rumble of thunder with this.Click to EnlargeRain totals may be around an inch later today through Thursday. Short range models:Click to EnlargeNWS forecast:Click to EnlargeThankfully it looks like the rain will end early enough on Thursday that there is a lowering concern for a freeze up Thursday night. Temperatures will drop below freezing fairly quickly, ending up in the 20s. Still, puddles in driveways/parking lots will probably make for icy spots.Click to Enlarge

WEEKEND WEATHER

After a fairly sunny day Friday.....Click to Enlarge...the question will be, what happens to the moisture along that stalled front. Models have been trying to bring it back north on Saturday, introducing the possibility of snow and/or ice. The latest modeling is less bullish on this and I think the threat for ICE is dropping. I can't rule out a small accumulation of snow Saturday. Latest GFS model keeps ALL of the moisture away Saturday:Click to EnlargeI will have another update on this later today. Sunday looks calm:Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE

Still on track for a very mild period next week into at least part of the following week.gefs_t2ma_5d_conus_53 kyng_2017011100_eps_min_max_15

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Wednesday (1/4) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Our cold front rolled though overnight and temperatures will keep gliding backward today. Arctic air is spilling east.Click to EnlargeWind chills will get pretty nasty today; by mid-afternoon they will be mostly in the lower teens.Click to EnlargeLake-effect snow will set up east of Cleveland today into tonight but the wind direction will not be favorable for many of the bands to work their way south. Still, a small accumulation will be possible from Mespo to Greenville...but no farther south.

THURSDAY'S "SNEAKY" SNOW

A system will spread light snows into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. The "bullseye" of a few inches or so is likely to be southern Ohio into eastern Kentucky and West Virginia, as shown on this map (showing odds of 1" or more):Click to EnlargeBUT I am concerned that some light snow will creep farther north and give the WFMJ viewing area a small accumulation in the afternoon and evening hours. The NAM Model depicts this:Click to EnlargeOften you hear us talk about a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio (so 10" snow=1" of rain). That's a decent rule of thumb but reality is often different. In this arctic air mass the ratios will be more like 20:1 or even 25:1, meaning that it's "easier" to get accumulating snow even when there isn't much moisture to squeeze out of the atmosphere.Click to EnlargeSo, I am concerned about an inch or so of snow causing slick travel for the evening rush tomorrow. the short range ensemble (SREF for short) model suggests a couple of inches is possible. The average of all 21 flavors of the model is about 2.8".Click to EnlargeSo, stay tuned on this one. Often it's these kind of events that lead to the most travel issues.

COLD BUT QUIET

The Friday-Sunday time frame will be frigid with highs near 20 but generally quiet otherwise. Saturday will be a problem for parts of the Southeast but that storm is a miss for us.Click to EnlargeWe could see flurries and snow showers Sunday. Quite windy and cold!Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE: BLOW TORCH!

As I have been talking about all week, the rest of January looks quite mild. The turnaround starts next week:Click to EnlargeThe 10-20 period is a full-on blowtorch.Click to EnlargeOur winter forecast's top "analog" year was 2005-2006. What happened in January 2006? TORCH!Click to Enlarge 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Tuesday (1/3) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

After a damp and drizzly day Monday, today's rain is certainly more substantial. Already 0.25-0.50" as of 9am and the rain will continue through this afternoon. 9am radar:Click to EnlargeLocal totals so far:Click to Enlarge18 hour futurecast:Click to EnlargeAt least it is mild! Highs today in the mid and upper 40s.Click to Enlarge

BIG CHANGES!

Arctic air is on the move across the country this morning.Click to EnlargeTemperatures will fall late tonight and keep falling during the day tomorrow. The wind will howl and it will feel like January, that's for sure.Click to EnlargeWind chills probably no higher than the lower teens in the afternoon; single digits by evening.Click to EnlargeFlurries around but we are not expecting accumulating snow Wednesday.On Thursday, a weak, fast-moving system will track our way and we may pick up a coating to an inch or so of fluffy snow during the afternoon and evening. I will have more on this later today.Click to Enlarge

WEEKEND STORM: A MISS TO SOUTH

It appears that we will dodge a winter storm that will bring accumulating snow and ice to parts of the Southeast. Our weekend looks pretty tranquil and cold.Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE

Big pattern change ahead for next week and beyond. After a frigid stretch, milder days are ahead. Our January forecast calls for a warmer-than-average month.Click to EnlargeClick to Enlarge

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Monday (1/2/17) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Hope your weekend was a good one. Many are still off today and it is a good day to catch up on indoor projects/sleeping/watching football. It will be one of those "deceptive radar" days, where little or nothing is showing up on the radar but it is raining a little.Click to EnlargeA little rain or drizzle is likely at times today; often the radar does not "see" the rain because it is falling out of low clouds that are below the radar beam. Meteorologists rely on many tools to predict the weather; one of them is an atmospheric "sounding", or a vertical snapshot of the wind, moisture and temperatures as you go up through the atmosphere. With the temperature and dewpoint nearly the same in the lowest 5,000 feet today, that's nearly 100% humidity over a pretty good vertical distance and the result will be a damp, gray day.Click to EnlargeAt least it's turning mild! Highs today in the 40s.Click to EnlargeMeanwhile, it's a stormy morning in Texas and there is a significant (especially for January) severe weather risk in the Deep South today. svrday1

WET AND MILD TUESDAY

Tuesday will be another wet one, with steadier, somewhat heavier rain than today...especialy before lunchtime.Click to EnlargeRain totals may average a 1/2" or so late tonight into Tuesday.Click to EnlargeBUT temperatures will be quite balmyClick to Enlarge

RETURN OF THE ARCTIC AIR

Arctic air will blast back into Ohio and PA later this week, starting Wednesday. It will be accompanied by some gusty winds and snow flurries. wedsmapthursmapTemperatures: Ouch. ndfd_t2max_cleveland_3 ndfd_t2max_cleveland_4

WATCHING WEEKEND SYSTEM

A lot of intrigue on the models in regards to a system that may or may not impact parts of the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. Right now I think that it's unlikely to produce big snows around here; it is likely to be a total miss or we'll just be on the fringes. Current GFS model for Saturday:Click to EnlargeCould be quite a problem for the Carolinas if this idea is right. We rely heavily on model "ensembles" in the ling range, especially when there is a lot of uncertainty. Out of the 21 "members" of the GFS Ensemble, only a couple suggest any high impacts for eastern OH and western PA. Other models also mostly show a "miss" for us. Stay tuned.Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE: COLD REPLACED BY JANUARY THAW

After a cold period late this week into the weekend, there is a strong signal on all the modeling that mid-January will not be that cold...in fact it may be quite mild. This is consistent with our winter forecast which talked about January being milder than December (relative to average).Click to EnlargeClick to Enlarge 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Blog: 2016 Weather in Youngstown Area

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Before 2017 gets into full swing, I thought I would take a moment to review 2016 weather for the Valley. Let's go!

2016: A WARM YEAR

Probably the #1 weather story for year was the consistent WARMTH. Only 2 months were colder than average (and neither was by much). That's a remarkable run from May-November.2016-temperature-departures-by-monthA look at temperatures for entire year (click to enlarge).2016tempgraphDaily records highs were set on:February 3February 20 (tie)February 28March 9March 24November 18 (tie)December 26 (tie)Interesting that we did not set or even tie any records between March 24 and November 18. It was consistently warm but not crazy warm.How did 2016 compare to recent years? Not quite as warm as 2012: annual-temps-1997-2016The summer was consistently very warm but notice 90 degree days were below average again. LOTS of 85-89 degree days over the summer. 90-degree-daysAir conditioners were busy with the warm days and steamy nights.cooling-degree-days

FROM DROUGHT TO SURPLUS

A big weather story in the Spring and early Summer was the lack of rain. The drought was never severe by any stretch but things browned up for a while. It was a big change from 2015.summer-2015-vs-2016-rainMid to late Summer was wetter and the year was wetter-than-average overall. This counts rain and the liquid equivalent of snow we got.annual-precipitation-1997-2016In October, we had one of the wettest days on record in Youngstown:wettest-days-on-record

LACK OF SEVERE WEATHER

We of course had thunderstorms and occasional hail and damaging winds but overall it was a below-average season for severe weather. There were NO confirmed tornadoes in our viewing area in 2016. The nearest ones were in Butler County, PA (red dots): pa_statemap

DECEMBER: NOT LIKE 2015!

The end of 2016 finally brought some cold weather to the Valley. It was one of the snowiest Decembers on record with over 23" at the airport. Compare that to 2015 when we had the warmest December on record! december-2016-vs-2015

JANUARY 1 STATS

Finally, some fun stats about New Year's Day weather. This year: nice day with some sunshine; highs in the 30s.coldest-new-years-day snowiest-new-years-day warmest-new-years-dayVideo version of the year in review: https://ericwfmj.com/2016/12/30/weather-for-weather-geeks-2016-review-january-preview/  

Thursday (12/29) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING TO YA....

Last night's snow, as expected, was pretty "ho hum" with just some dustings for most locations. That precipitation has pushed east this morning:Click to EnlargeNow we await the lake-effect to set up. It will take a while. The arctic air has not arrived yet:Click to EnlargeTemperatures today will hold nearly steady in the mid 30s.Click to EnlargeThe lake-effect will get going this evening and during the overnight. Here's the hi-res "futurecast" depiction:Click to EnlargeNotice the ramp-up of activity near the end of the loop.Lake-effect snow will continue overnight into Friday morning and wind down Friday afternoon and evening.Click to EnlargeLake-Effect Snow Advisory is up for Mercer County, where the highest amounts could be up around 6" or so (northern part of county).Click to EnlargeOur snow map, which I will be tweaking a little this afternoon:Click to EnlargeNo matter how much snow you see Friday, everyone will share in the wind and cold. Brrrrr.Click to Enlarge

THE WEEKEND (HAPPY NEW YEAR!)

Another quick-hitting system will track our way Saturday and the result could be similar to what we just saw last night: a low-impact wet snow/mix event. Think that things will just be damp on the roads for your New Year's Eve plans. Temperatures in the 30s.Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeNew Year's Day looks tranquil with mixed sun and clouds.Click to Enlarge

NEXT WEEK: UP THEN DOWN

An early week warm spell (mid/upper 50s Tuesday!) will be followed by a much colder pattern for the 2nd half of next week and next weekend.Click to EnlargeThe cold will actually encompass nearly the entire Lower 48. Only south Florida escapes!Click to Enlarge  

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Wednesday (12/28) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING.....

Off to a cloudy and quiet start across the Valley this morning. BUT, there is clearing to our southwest and I expect that clearing to get in here as we get into the midday and afternoon hours.Click to EnlargeHighs today will be a few degrees above average.Click to EnlargeA cold front will approach late tonight and it will bring some precipitation with it. The question is: what kind? This can be just wet snow for some and for many, a mix of rain and snow. If it stays mostly or all snow in your location, you may see a fresh inch by daybreak Thursday.Click to EnlargeMuch of the rest of Thursday will be fairly uneventful with flurries around. Lake-effect snow will set up and get more organized by Thursday night and Friday. A windy, cold day Friday. Wind chills no better than the lower teens:Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeSnow will accumulate most efficiently in the primary snowbelts of OH, PA and NY. In our viewing area, northern Trumbull and a large chunk of Mercer County have the best chance of seeing enough snow to shovel and plow. NWS snow forecast (numbers probably too high south of I-80 in my opinion):Click to Enlarge

HOLIDAY WEEKEND

The cold will ease quickly for Saturday and temperatures will get back into the mid 30s. There is a chance for light mixed precipitation late in the day but I don't think it will be impactful.Click to Enlarge

Temperature at midnight: around 30.

New Year's Day will be pretty quiet; a small chance for rain late in the day.Click to EnlargeRain showers and warmer temperatures likely early next week.Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE

A blob of cold air will cover much of the country late next week into next weekend. Looks like January.Click to Enlargekyng_2016122800_eps_min_max_15 kyng_2016122806_min_max_16 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

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Tuesday (12/27) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Hope you had a great Christmas! I enjoyed some time off but am back in the hot seat today. Last night's cold front brought gusty showers to the Valley; here are some local rainfall totals:Click to EnlargeBefore the front rolled through we TIED the record high for December 26 of 64 degrees.That front is now well east and today will be a much more typical late December day. Temperatures will hold nearly steady in the 30s. Although there was some sunshine to start, the clouds to our north and west (white-grey color) will take over by lunchtime.Click to Enlarge

NEXT SNOW CHANCES

Winter weather will make a (fairly brief) comeback late this week. Wednesday will be a tranquil day with some sunshine:Click to EnlargeThe next arctic front is expected to sweep through early Thursday. This can be accompanied by a band of snow; a coating to an inch or so is possible by mid-morning Thursday.Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeAfter a break Thursday afternoon, snow showers and squalls will get going off the lakes Thursday night and Friday. This will result in sizable accumulations in the primary snow belts of Ohio, PA and New York. In our viewing area, I'd expect at least a few inches in many places north of I-80 and especially around and north of Rt 87. South of those locales, local accumulations of an inch to two or three will be possible.Click to EnlargeNotice how windy that map looks with the isobars packed together. Temperatures will hold in the 20s Friday and the wind chill should be no higher than the teens.

NEW YEAR'S WEEKEND

Forecast details are a little tough this morning but at this point I am not expecting any MAJOR weather issues for the weekend. The GFS tries to bring in a little wet snow Saturday afternoon (shown) and evening but not sure I buy that.Click to EnlargeOn January 1 there is a chance for a little precipitation, probably late in the day....more than likely rain, not snow.Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE

A warmup early next week but the pattern looks to turn colder for a while starting around midweek. kyng_2016122700_eps_min_max_15 kyng_2016122700_min_max_16 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Blog: Wintry Assault Continues: Harsh Cold, Snow

GOOD MORNING..

We told you in our Winter Forecast that December would be MUCH different than December 2015 and that is certainly panning out. Winter is going to continue to pummel us for a few more days until the pattern relaxes early next week.

WIND CHILLS

Very cold air has already settled into the region this morning, with temperatures particularly frigid to our west.Click to EnlargeTemperatures will only make it into the lower 20s today with wind chills in the lower teens much of the time. But the REAL arctic air is on the way tonight through Friday. By tomorrow morning the wind will be howling and air temperatures will be in the single digits in most spots. Wind chills? Yuck.Click to EnlargeThis is the kind of cold in which we (for reasons beyond understanding) have to remind people to bring their pets in. You'd think it is common sense, but......Count on plenty of school adjustments Thursday morning. We don't make that call and I am often surprised at what school districts decide to do but this seems like a no brainer.The unusual December cold is thans to a pattern that has allowed a lobe of the (cue ominous music) POLAR VORTEX to come much farther south than it's usual home (the, well, polar regions).Click to EnlargeWind chills Friday morning will not be as harsh, generally 2 to 7 below...probably still enough to cause delays. Air temperatures? 0 to 4 above.

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW

With all this arctic air going over the Great Lakes, you know there will be a healthy amount of lake-effect snow. It will get going tonight and continue into early tomorrow night.Click to EnlargeOf course the highest amounts will be in the primary snow belt but several inches is likely in parts of Trumbull and Mercer counties.Click to Enlarge

"GENERAL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT"

A strong warm front will approach Friday night and we expect snow to break out before midnight. At first, this will be "high ratio" snow, perhaps a 20:1 liquid to snow ratio (instead of typical 12:1 or 10:1). This will translate into the snow accumulating quickly during the first several hours of snowfall. It will get "wetter" by early Saturday morning.Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeWhen true arctic air is dislodged it is usually a bumpy ride and there may be a period of freezing rain/mixed precipitation around daybreak Saturday.Thankfully a transition to "plain" rain will occur as temperatures warm into the 40s.Click to Enlarge

How much snow? I think this will easily be enough to shovel and plow. 1inchodds 3inchoddsThinking 3-5" is fairly likely.

We'll have ONE MORE arctic blast behind this system for Sunday night/Monday before a milder pattern takes hold. That milder pattern is likely  to last through Christmas and even into the New Year.

Monday (12/12) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING! WINTER IS, UH, HERE.

More 2 hour delays than I thought there would be this morning as the mixing/changeover did not occur as fast or as far north as most computer models advertised....and the side roads remained a problem. Main roads are (generally) fine, just wet.Temperatures are going to flatline for a while this morning before slowly falling. The first of a few cold fronts is on the way. Oof look at that cold in the Upper Midwest this morning.Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeNot much more than a flurry or two for the rest of the day.

TUESDAY PM NUISENCE

A little moisture will meet up with the nest cold front Tuesday afternoon, resulting in some light snow breaking out after lunch. This won't add up to much but could lead to slick spots, mainly after sunset.Click to EnlargeNWS has an inch or less for accumulation and I think that's right...but remember the IMPACTS are more important. And the impacts of a "little" snow at the wrong time of day can be significant.Click to Enlarge

INTO THE DEEP FREEZE

The coldest December weather we have seen in YEARS is on the way for the second half of the work week. The polar plunge will really take place Wednesday night into Thursday behind the NEXT cold front.Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeThursday will really be hideous. Look at those isobars packed together. Will be very windy and snow showers will fly. We'll worry about lake-effect snow potential as we get closer. Higher impacts will probably come from the wind and cold. Thursday morning wind chills:Click to EnlargeWind chills will syat below zero all day. ACTUAL temperatures? Probably no higher than the lower teens. This will probably be our coldest December day in 8 or 12 years (and that 2004 temperature was at Christmas).Click to EnlargeFriday will be bitterly cold but not as windy.Click to Enlarge

A DIFFERENT PATTERN

The arctic cold will be displaced by much warmer air Saturday but the transition could be bumpy. We may see a snow accumulation Friday night followed by mixed precipitation/ice early Saturday. Then rain as temperatures get above freezing. More on this as we get closer.Click to EnlargeAs we get closer to Christmas, a generally mild-ish pattern seems likely. We have been advertising this for a while. White Christmas odds seem low at the moment. cfs_anom_t2m_conus_2016121200_61 kyng_2016121200_eps_min_max_15  

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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BLOG: COLD, STORMS, RUMORS OF STORMS

Part of our winter forecast was the mantra that this December would be much different than December of 2015 and that, compared to average, December might be the coldest month of the season (December-February). That idea is coming to fruition now and the next 10 days or so could be quite interesting! Let's dive in!

ARCTIC ATTACK #1

For much of October and November, the true arctic air sat on the other side of the pole. It was amazingly cold in Siberia (even for their standards) while North America was a "blow torch". That has changed recently, as the arctic air has finally made it into Canada and the western United States. Lots of cold on the map this morning:Click to EnlargeAfter a petty nice day today, the leading edge of this arctic air mass will arrive here tomorrow. A blustery and cold Thursday with temperatures no higher than about freezing and wind chills in the 20s.Highs:Click to EnlargeLake-effect snow will get going in NW PA and SW NY Thursday but won't really impact our area until late Thursday night and Friday as the wind shifts to more of a northwesterly direction. This will be a lake-effect bonanza from Erie to just south of Buffalo. Check out the NWS forecast through Friday: 2 feet or more in SW NY. Yikes.Click to EnlargeHere in the Valley, I think the snow showers will fall more into the "nuisance" category Friday with some places north of I-80 getting a handful of inches of snow and just about no accumulation expected south of 224.Click to Enlarge

CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY SNOW FORECAST: MEDIUM HIGH

That said, even in areas that won't pick up much accumulation, watch for slick travel at times Friday into Friday night. Snow showers and squalls can reduce visibility quickly.The wind will whip Friday with wind chills never making it above 20 or so.Click to Enlarge

SATURDAY: A BREAK (BUT COLD!)

The lake-effect snow machine will shut down Saturday and the wind will not be as problematic. Cold at Stambaugh Stadium Saturday afternoon with temperatures no higher than about 29-30.

SUNDAY'S SNOW THREAT

Confidence is growing that a "warm advection" snow event will occur Sunday. Basically that means warmer air will be gliding up over colder air, causing rising air and precipitation. This has the potential to be a 1-3"-ish type of snow.Click to Enlarge

CONFIDENCE IN SUNDAY SNOW: MEDIUM

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: "BONUS" SNOW??

A cold front will cross the region in the Sunday-night/Monday time frame. A big question right now is: will the front come through "clean" or will a wave of low pressure form along the front, slowing it down and producing another wave of snow?The operational European model has been advertising this idea for a couple of days now. A handful of members of the European ensemble model show this as well:Click to EnlargeOther models have no such wave and thus no "bonus" snow. For example, the GFS just has some "ho hum" snow flurries and snow showers Monday morning:Click to EnlargeWill not dismiss the European idea because, well it's a better model, but it's on it's own right now. So:

CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: LOW

NEXT WEEK: RELEASE THE ARCTIC HOUNDS!

This week's release of arctic air into the US looks like an appetizer compared to next week's cold shot. Temperature animation of Monday-Saturday (GFS model)Click to EnlargeOf course it will be much colder to our northwest, but still this has the potential to produce a couple of days of highs near 20 and single digit lows. Temperatures compared to average next Thursday:Click to EnlargeEuropean model:Click to Enlarge

CONFIDENCE IN HARSH COLD LATE NEXT WEEK: HIGH

WARM UP FOR CHRISTMAS?

After that second polar plunge, there are signals that it will turn milder as we get closer to Christmas. But I would not guarantee something like that this far out. European model shows the cold retreating by December 21:Click to EnlargeThe CFS climate model has a mild signal for much of the country right before the holiday:Click to Enlarge

CONFIDENCE IN WARMER PATTERN FOR CHRISTMAS: LOW-MEDIUM

Stay tuned.  

Tuesday (12/6) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Rain is on the way, right on schedule. Here's what the radar looked like at 9:15am:Click to EnlargeHi-res futurecast:Click to EnlargeA wet and cold afternoon. No longer all that concerned about sleet/wet snow mixing in. A few pellets possible but no big deal. Hourly rain chances:Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeRain totals around 1/2 inch today.Click to EnlargeBehind this system, a nicer day tomorrow with some breaks of sunshine for the afternoon.

ARCTIC PLUNGE #1

The coldest air of the season so far is still on track for late this week. Record cold? Unusual for December? No and no. But it will be windy and cold, yes.Wind chills Friday morning:Click to EnlargeSnow showers will be most prevelant Thursday night and Friday and of couse will be mainly aimed at the primary snowbelt. Still think it's possible that there are modest accumulations in northern Trumbull and Mercer. Stay tuned.Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeBy the start of the weekend, the lake-effect will be winding down and we should see some intervals of sunshine for the YSU game Saturday afternoon. Still cold though! Highs near 30.Click to EnlargeSunday could be complicated. Possibly Monday too. Very low confidence in the forecast at the moment but precipitation in some form(s) seems likely. Mostly rain? Mostly snow? Not sure yet. Again, stay tuned.Click to Enlarge

ARCTIC PLUNGE #2

An even colder air mass seems likely to visit during the 2nd half of nbext week. Gonna be a busy December!Click to Enlarge

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Monday (12/5) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Cloud Season continues on this Monday although the sky MAY brighten a touch this afternoon.Click to EnlargeTemperatures will be held mainly in the 30s once again today.Click to Enlarge

TUESDAY'S RAIN

Low pressure will track toward the region on Tuesday, resulting in a chilly rain starting between 9-11am.Click to EnlargeNotice this computer model is showing all rain for us but I would not be surprised to see a few wet snowflakes and/or sleep pellets mixed in with the rain, especially when the rain is falling a little harder.Click to EnlargeRain totals Tuesday will average 1/3 of an inch or so.Click to EnlargeAfter a calm Wednesday.....

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON

We've been talking about this for over a week and it will finally arrive later this week. This will not be record-setting cold and won't be unusual for December. But it is the coldest air of the season so far and the kind of air mass that NEVER arrived during last year's record warm December.Snow showers and harsh winds Thursday and Friday.Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeSnow will of course be most problematic in the primary snow belts downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario.Click to EnlargeStill, I would not be surprised if some need a shovel north of I-80 in our veiwing area.Wind chills Friday no higher than the teens.Click to EnlargeStill cold Saturday but the snow showers should be less numerous.saturdayTemperatures are likely to recover early  next week before the next cold front arrives.kyng_2016120506_min_max_16 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Thursday (12/1) Morning Weather Briefing

WELCOME TO DECEMBER!

Meteorological Winter begins today. Autumn was a warm one for the Valley, one of the warmest on record. In fact, we have had back-to-back warm Autumn seasons.Click to EnlargeDecember is our cloudiest month and of course it is the month with the least daylight. Here;s the Sun table for the month:Click to EnlargeWe'll lose another 12-13 minutes of daylight before the days start getting "longer".Today's weather will be "eh". Lots of clouds, cold winds and perhaps a sprinkle or flurry. Temperatures only rising a couple of degrees into the upper 30s.Click to EnlargeTomorrow? Pretty similar. A somewhat better chance for flurries, especially late in the day and north of I-80.Click to EnlargeSaturday? You guessed it. Blustery and chilly with clouds and a flurry. Highs near 40.Between now and Saturday, the snow belt and NW PA and SW New York can pick up some modest snow accumulation.Click to EnlargeWe can see a little sunshine Sunday morning before clouds roll back in. There will be a weak disturbance that may try to give us a coating of snow late Sunday and Sunday night.Click to Enlarge

NEXT WEEK

After a quiet Monday, rain is likely Tuesday.Click to EnlargeThen, the much-advertised shot of arctic air is set to arrive at the end of the week. The cold front will probably roll through Thursday. By Friday, wind chills could look like this:Click to EnlargeSingle digits. Winter will have arrived.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpgInterested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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