BLOG: A Review of June and a Look at July's Forecast

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*Note* Click on the images to enlarge them.June 2015 is in the books and THANK GOODNESS!  June is usually one of my favorite weather months but not this year! It was of course ridiculously rainy and stormy.Let's show you all the ugly numbers. These rain totals are from "backyard" rain gauges; owners upload the data to sites such as Weather Underground. That's how I look at the data.TOTALS1 TOTALS2The official numbers at the airport in Vienna were just as impressive. June 2015 was the 3rd wettest June on record and the 7th wettest month on record in Youngstown.JUNES AllTimeRainNotice the lack of truly dry days. Only 6 days had ZERO rain and many of those were early in the month.JUNECALWhile we had it bad, believe it or not, some places had it WORSE! Especially compared to the average. Many places in northern Indiana and around Baltimore/Washington had their wettest June ever and some had their wettest month overall.juneanomOf course all this rain led to many flooding problems. We had bouts of "severe" weather as well. Severe meaning damaging winds and large hail. Here are the storm reports called into the NWS in June in Ohio and Pennsylvania.ohioreports pareportsTemperatures were not very remarkable in June. We finished the month on a very cool note but overall the month was about a 1/2 degree warmer than an average June. Here are the June temperatures in Youngstown dating back to 1975:JUNETEMPSOk so what about July? I think this July will be similar to last July in that extreme heat is quite unlikely. 90 degree days will be hard to find. We may get a couple. Overall the hottest weather (compared to average) will be in the Northwest. The Plains will be cool. In our area, I think the month will end up being near or perhaps slightly cooler than a typical July.julytempsThe all-important topic of rain is next. We NEED a dry month! But I do not see July being unusually dry. I do think it will be much closer to average than June, but that is not exactly a bold statement. While the wettest weather may be found in the lower Ohio Valley and Mississippi Valley, Youngstown will probably be a bit above average in the rain department.julyrainMonthly rain forecasts in the warm season are tricky because thunderstorms can give some places a lot of rain while others miss. So sometimes the numbers get skewed.Thanks for reading! Enjoy the great weather we have coming for most of the next 5-6 days and have a great holiday.Eric

BLOG: Why Do We Use Dew Point and Not Relative Humidity?

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Meteorologists talk about the "dew point". A LOT. This is especially true in recent years. Many people undoubtedly remember watching weathercasts on TV in which the presenter only talked about "relative humidity". The problem with relative humidity?It's kinda useless.Let me explain why. Imagine if you will 2 cups with water in them. The smaller cup is 100% full of water. The larger cup is only 1/2 full, BUT there is more water in that cup than in the smaller cup.dewpointIf we think of the atmosphere as our "cup", the relative humidity is much higher in the situation on the right but there is actually MORE moisture in the air in the situation on the left. In February it can be 21 degrees with a relative humidity of 100% but that does not mean it is humid. In July, it can be 90 degrees with 32% relative humidity and still feel stifling because of the AMOUNT, or VOLUME of moisture in the atmosphere.So that's why, especially in the Summer, we rarely talk about relative humidity. It can be very deceiving. The dew point is not.In our part of the country, dew point become a big deal when they get well into the 60s and 70s. In mid-Summer, dewpoints in the 50s are a nice treat.dewguide

BLOG: When is The Rain Going To Stop???

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We are pretty much ALL tired of the rainy weather at this point. We have had measurable rain (more than a "trace") 13 out of 21 days this month. A handful of rainfall totals:

Warren 7.78"
Howland 7.31"
N Wilmington 5.63"
Boardman 6.13"
Airport 5.57"

Yards are water-logged and many outdoor plans have been ruined. I am getting asked frequently...when is this pattern going to change??There are finally signs that it is about to change.The reason for the wet June? It can mostly be blamed on a persistent ridge of high pressure over the Southeast. This atmospheric traffic cop has deflected a large chunk of the moisture coming out of the Gulf of Mexico into the southern Plains, the Mississippi Valley and the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.OLDPATTERNThis week will not be as wet as recent weeks but there can still be rain in spots late tonight/tomorrow morning and again Thursday into Thursday night.After that...a pattern change is set to take place. Will it rain occasionally? YES. But will it rain has frequently and as HARD as it has rained over the past few weeks? NO! The reason? The weather pattern is going to revert back to the pattern we have had over the last couple of winters. A BIG ridge of high pressure in the West and a trough setting up over the Great Lakes and Northeast:FUTUREThat will keep the juiciest air locked up over the Gulf of Mexico.....reducing our opportunities for tropical downpours and frequent thunderstorms.This pattern will also produce some very comfortable weather for the Valley at the end of June and through at least the 4th of July. That means no 90+ degree heat, no long stretches of uncomfortable humidity and some good "sleeping weather" at night. Enjoy!Eric

BLOG: What's the Deal With Positive and Negative Lightning Strikes?

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Lightning_Bolt_out_of_Blue_July_12_2009It's thunderstorm season in northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania and that means you see us showing a lot of graphics that look like this:CHlKrw4UYAEIylDYou are no doubt familiar with the "traditional" radar, with the colors corresponding to the intensity of the precipitation. Modern weather software can also display lightning data on top of the radar and this is a valuable tool in our arsenal. I am frequently asked questions such as "What do the (+) signs mean?" and "What's the difference between positive and negative lightning?"The fact is, there is a significant difference between the two. Knowing the charge of lightning can tell us about the nature of a thunderstorm. We also know that positively charged lightning is much more powerful and dangerous than lightning with a negative charge.HOW DOES LIGHTNING FORM?In mature thunderstorms, the bottom of the storm contains rain and melting hail. The middle of the storm contains hail and small ice crystals and the top of the storm is comprised of mostly small ice crystals. The middle of the storm is a pretty violent place with precipitation and ice flying around and crashing into each other. This causes the precipitation to become charged,Animation 3a(Image: NOAA)The lighter ice crystals pick up a positive charge and are carried to the top of the storm by updrafts. Meanwhile, the heavier items get volleyed around the middle and lower portions of the cloud and get a negative charge. In response to this negative charge in the middle of the storm, a small positive charge develops at the bottom.Animation 4a (Image: NOAA)On the ground, underneath the anvil (outer edges) of the storm, a negative charge can develop.When the difference in the charges reaches a certain critical level, there is a rapid discharge of electricity.....LIGHTNING.NEGATIVE LIGHTNING Negative lightning refers to the "polarity" of the lightning strike. The sign depicts the type of charge that is transferred from the cloud to the ground.Negative90-95% of all lightning strikes are negative. Most lightning strike victims are, not surprisingly, struck by positively-charged bolts.POSITIVE LIGHTNINGWhile positive lightning occurs much less frequently, it is MUCH more powerful and dangerous. Positive lightning mostly originates from the top of a storm. When conditions are right and a big charge difference between the anvil and the ground develops, a positively-charged bolt can develop. The strike has to travel a much larger distance and so can last much longer than a negative strike. In addition, positive strikes carry a dramatically higher voltage than negative ones.While only 10% of all lightning strike victims are killed, the percent killed by positive strikes is much higher.Positive strikes are also usually the cause of forest fires.PositiveSome studies suggest that there is a connection between tornado formation and spikes in positive lightning strikes.Finally, a reminder. I am not an ace speller by any stretch but the constant misspelling of "lightning" is a pet peeve of mine. Here's a cheat sheet: lgta