BLOG+VIDEO: Ice, Snow, Harsh Cold Coming to Valley

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Winter! Where has it been? Not here since very late November. December was the 2nd least snowy on record in Youngstown and it was the 14th warmest December on record here. Well, we are about to pay the price. Here's a web video that has all the details. If you like a more technical weather discussion, check out "Weather For Weather Geeks".http://youtu.be/X7O84-tRIhQ If you would rather not watch the video, here's a few highlights:1) A Few Hours of Freezing Rain Saturday Morning. satamBy early afternoon, we'll be above freezing. A very soggy afternoon! satpmYour travel plans can be impacted by ice, rain and snow over the next few days: travelThe freezing rain will be a minor problem here but more of a problem in west-central PA: icepa2) An "Alberta Clipper"-type System Will Bring Snow Tuesday. snowInitial snow estimate is 2-4 inches Tuesday. There can be additional accumulations Wednesday with lake-effect, especially north of I-80.3) Harsh Wind and Cold Wednesday into Thursday. wedschillthurschill

BLOG: Weather in 2014 in Youngstown Area; A Look at January 2015

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Happy New Year all!!! As you know, I love statistics, charts, graphs, maps, etc. So it's a no-brainer that I would do a "year in review" about our weather in 2014. Let's start with the "top stories" of the year for our area.1) EF-1 Tornado in Ellsworth Township on July 8It was a wild afternoon of weather and this tornado caused structural damage to parts of Ellsworth Township and the Canfield area. The twister tracked for nearly 5 miles with a maximum width of 800 yards and estimated wind speed of 90 mph. damagehook2) Coldest Weather in 20 Years in January It had been since 1994 that we had cold this severe. Wind chills were as low as -25 or so a couple of mornings. The worst of the cold occurred in 2 separate waves, one early in the month and one toward the end of January. janWe were not alone, as much of eastern North America had an extreme month: january 3) Unusually cool weather in mid-Summer; highs in the 60s several days in JulyMany were asking "what happened to Summer??" julystatsAgain, we were not alone: july4) Early season cold and snow in November"Here we go again" was a popular refrain as last Winter was still fresh in everyone's minds.  A high of 18 in mid-November (after several inches of snow) is pretty extreme! nov 5) 2nd least snowy December on record; mild as wellAfter a cold, snowy November, December was a dud! Pacific air dominated the pattern and less than 1" of snow was recorded in Youngstown. Snow lovers and those who depend on snow to make a living were not happy.Let's dive into some other statistics for 2014.The year in temperatures: One record high was set in 2014; it was on October 28. yeargraphAn overview of the year in temperatures and precipitation: 201420142How did 2014 stack up against history?? It was a cold year, in fact the coldest since 1996: 2014tempranksSnow-wise, nothing remarkable....a snowier December would have made for a different story. 2014snowranksOverall precipitation was very close to average and nearly identical to 2013: 2014precipranksLooking globally for a second, have a look at who had a warm and cold 2014: yeartodateWHEN WILL IT SNOW AGAIN??? WILL JANUARY BE COLD??Let's look ahead to what the next few week have in store. It's cold out now, but a weekend warm up is coming with rain. AFTER that though, the pattern will turn cold for a handful of days. Here's the jet stream next Wednesday: jetwednesdayNotice the ridge on the West Coast and Alaska. The air over our region will have originated over the Arctic Circle (follow the lines over Ohio NE into Canada and into the Arctic.) This will result in a couple of days where temperatures may not get out of the teens: imageControlWill it come with snow? Maybe. There will certainly be at least some flurries around at times next week as the Great Lakes will interact with the frigid air. I think the best chance of a "general" snow will be with a "clipper" system on Tuesday, as shown on the GFS model: gfstuesdayIt's much too early to speculate on accumulations from a storm that could track far enough away that we get nothing. But, clippers that take favorable tracks are capable of producing enough snow to shovel and plow.The cold pattern is likely to ease fairly quickly by mid-month. The pattern shown here around the 13th is not a cold one: jan13There are signals that the last 1/3 of January and all of February will be the "heart" of Winter with the most opportunities for snow and harsh cold in Ohio and Pennsylvania.Thanks for reading!Eric  

BLOG: Let's Talk About Pre-Christmas Snow Chances

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As is the case every year, we have been asked a lot about the chances for a White Christmas over the last couple of weeks. Well, finally we are "in range" of the holiday and can take some educated stabs at the weather around Christmas (and of course the days leading up to it).First of all, a little history....this graphic shows the percentage of Christmas Days in Youngstown that featured 1" or more of snow on the ground (top) and the percentage that featured a snowfall of 1" or more on December 25 (bottom): 10624614_399296300224019_2443415487240887615_nWhat about this year? I have been saying for a few days that we have TWO chances to get some snow before or on Christmas Day. Let's tackle the first chance, which is during the upcoming weekend.The models have been doing their usual waffling about the strength and track of an area of low pressure that will cross the eastern US Friday through the weekend. The most recent model suite has brought a more consistent message, which is a good thing.   Generally, low pressure should track from the Gulf Coast region up the Appalachians, with a coastal low trying to take over by Sunday: CaptureOften this kind of track can bring moderate snows to the Valley before the coastal low "takes over". But this is not looking like a very strong system. Looking at the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the 2 pieces of energy do merge by Saturday....but this still does not result in a very deep system. fri500satnight500With a weaker system, snowfall amounts are going to be pretty modest on the northwest side of the storm. The highest amounts should be in the central Appalachians: gfssnowHow much for the Youngstown area? We are not confident enough yet to have accumulations in our TV forecasts, but for you loyal blog readers I will say that I am leaning toward this being a 1-2" or 1-3" type of event. Some reasons why I am thinking that's the general range:Here's the European Ensemble model's odds of more than 1": 1inchPretty decent odds of 1" or more.Odds of 3" or more: 3inchA 20-30% chance across the region based on this set of models.So, I suspect this is not a "lot" of snow....and with marginal temperatures...anything that falls during the day would likely not cause many issues on the roads.Since we are talking about the chances of a White Christmas, it's important to note that even if we do pick up a couple of inches of snow over the weekend....most of it would likely melt before Christmas Eve.BUT! Don't despair.....I do think some snow will fly around Christmas Eve/Christmas Day. Check out the Canadian model for December 24: candec24In the wake of a cold front, the gray areas around Youngstown are probably some snow showers. Models are showing a big, deep trough settling over the East for Christmas: xmas500That's a good setup for snow showers! It's too early for specifics about the possibility of any accumulating snow at Christmas but I do think that we have a pretty decent chance of at least SEEING snow in the air at Christmas.Stay tuned.Thanks for reading!