BLOG: Wild Week of Weather Ahead

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Good Monday to you!It's been a while since I have done a true "Blog" post, as the weather in September and October has a tendency to be "boring". Well the weather will be far from boring this week.First, the big changes that will occur in the near term. It was a cold and frosty start today with low temperatures in the 20s in spots: lowsThis afternoon will be gorgeous once again with a nice warm up as well. A warm front is knocking on the door: currentsfc In the wake of that warm front, Tuesday morning will start as much as 30 degrees warmer than this morning did and we should have no trouble getting into the lower and perhaps middle 70s in the afternoon. BUT, that cold front you see on today's weather map?...It will head our way in the afternoon. Showers will become likely after 2-3pm. Here's the 2pm Tuesday simulated radar on the NAM4 model: 2pmtuesAhead of the front, it will be a pretty moist and unstable air mass. Check out the dewpoints getting into the lower 60s...pretty impressive for late October: tuesdaydewThese relatively high dewpoints will provide some of the "fuel" for showers and even thunderstorms. The instability is not "through the roof" but it's pretty decent. CAPE (convective available potential energy) will be 500-1000 which is certainly enough to support thunder: cape There is an outside chance any thunderstorm produces "severe" wind gusts. Remember, the definition of a "severe" thunderstorm is a storm that produces 1) Hail 1" or larger and/or 2) wind gust of 58 mph or greater. At 5000 feet in the air, wind speeds will be as high as 60-70 mph so a decent storm with a strong downdraft could pull down some of that wind: 850winds The winds and energy at jet stream level (around 30,000 feet) will be strongest to our west so the setup is not "great" for severe weather: jetThat is why the Storm Prediction Center just has us in the "Marginal" risk category: day2 After the passage of the cold front, Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler and more tranquil days. Then, a STRONG shot of cold air is heading our way for Halloween. How cold? There will likely be flurries and snow showers seen around the region by Friday evening! gfsfrieveI would not expect this to stick, except perhaps a dusting on a few non-paved surfaces. Flurries may even be around into parts of Saturday. BRRRR!The cold shot is a quick hitter. After a chilly weekend, we should be back to average and perhaps above average readings for the first work week of November: gefsAnd OVERALL, this is not likely to be a cold pattern during the first 10 days or 2 weeks of November. Here's the CFS model outlook for the 2ns week of the month: cfsnov813Lots of warm air across the continent. So, while there will surely be cries of "Winter is starting already!" Friday and Saturday, as a reader of this blog...you will know better. :)Speaking of Winter, a reminder....this folder on my desktop will be opened up and we will reveal our Winter 2014-2015 forecast on air and ONLINE this Thursday, October 30! WINTER!Thanks for reading.Eric