BLOG: Quick September Recap, a Look at The Coming Week and October

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October has arrived and bot will we know it by the weekend! But first, let's put a bow on September 2014. How did the numbers shake out?septstats A couple of things stand out. First of all, it was a dry month with only 51% of our average September rain. Temperature-wise? It ended up being EXACTLY average. The warmth at the end of the month balanced out the cool stretches we had earlier on.The rain that we had on the final day of the month did bump us down in the rankings for dry Septembers. With 1.90" it was the 22nd driest September on record in Youngstown: septprecip October begins quietly enough today with low clouds and fog breaking for some sun later. Temperatures will be close to or a bit above average. But BIG changes are heading our way. A warm, dry Thursday will be followed by a wet, windy Friday. Here's the simulated radar at 8am: fri8amShowers and storms should arrive in eastern Ohio and western PA by late morning and the afternoon will be wet. We MIGHT get a lot of the rain out of the way by football time but I would not bank on that at this point.This front is a pattern changer, at least temporarily. You can see the pattern evolving when looking at the position and strength of the jet stream. Here's the jet today: jettodayAnd Friday: jetfridayNotice the sharpening trough in the Upper Midwest. This beast is making a beeline for us. By the weekend, the trough axis is right overhead: jetsatThat just screams: COLD, WINDY AND RAW! If this were January, there would be hyperventilating about the POLAR VORTEX and we would be getting some nasty snow squalls with temperatures in the single digits in teens. WHEW. Thank goodness it's not January.Saturday will be nasty though with temperatures mainly in the 40s and a biting wind. If this were even just a few weeks from now, WET SNOWFLAKES would be something we would have to consider forecasting. But, not yet....too early.The chilly pattern holds through the first half of next week. Jet stream Tuesday: jettuesWe do think that this cool snap will ease with perhaps a significant warm up during the latter portions of next week. Notice the pattern change by next Thursday, Oct 9: gefsthursdayThe core of the cold has retreated into the northern Plains and Canada. We might even get back in the 70s for a couple of days late next week into next weekend.What about October as a whole? It will be, as most Octobers are, a back and forth month as Summer tries to hang on but Winter barges into the US occasionally. Climate models have been showing the month as a whole will probably end up near or slightly warmer than average: cfsoctAnd perhaps a touch wetter than average: cfsprecipSomething we know FOR SURE: Whatever the weather brings, the averages drop quickly this month. Average highs go from 66 to 56 and lows are typically in the upper 30s by Halloween:octaveragesThe average first freeze/end of the growing season across the area? In a couple of weeks: freezeAnd we will continue losing daylight rapidly: octsunThanks, as always, for reading!  

BLOG: September Progress Report; A Look at Long Range

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September is half over...let's take a minute to review the month so far in the region. First of all, a look at the US as a whole. It's been ANOTHER cooler than average month across the Plains and Rockies: monthtodateUSHere in Youngstown, after a very warm start it has been very cool lately....so the 1st half of the month has turned out to be about average. That said, we have had some warm starts to Septembers lately so the first half of this September has been the coolest since 2006: tempsrank Before we get off the subject of temperatures...a quick look at the temperature anomalies across the globe for the YEAR to date....notice how COLD 2014 has been in parts of North America: globe In the precipitation department, it's been a bit drier than average, especially in the southern half of our viewing area. Approximate precipitation totals so far this month: ohioprecipA wet month so far in NW OHio.Here's the daily summary of the 1st half of the month in Youngstown: dailyAnd now, a look into the crystal ball for the rest of the month and beyond. We will stay cooler than average through the rest of the week as a trough, or dip in the jet stream resides over the eastern US: jetnowA quick shot of warmth is coming just in time for the start of the weekend! Notice the change in the jet stream between now (above) and Saturday: jetsatThe trough in the East lifts out. BUT this will be a temporary change. By early next week, another shot of October-like chill is set to arrive. Here's the jet stream a week from today: jetinaweekThe chill should ease toward the end of next week.October is 2 weeks away. Climate models have been advertising a near or slightly above average month temperature-wise and an average month precipitation-wise. Temperatures: octtempsRain: octprecipThanks for reading! Have a good Tuesday.Eric