BLOG: Tax Day Trouble?

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The weekend will be just about perfect, and I would not be totally shocked if a few backyard thermometers hit 80 Sunday! Enjoy.Now, the bad news. It's still the first half of April and we can't expect "sunny and 75-80" to be our forecast on a consistent basis. Winter still has a little fight left! First of all, Monday will still be quite warm. But, it's easy to see where the next strong cold front will be in the afternoon: montempsBy early afternoon, Toledo will likely already have dropped into the 40s...while NE Ohio and western PA will be in the 70s.With this type of air mass change, you would expect rain...and you would be right. Showers will push in Monday afternoon and evening.What about thunder? I think there will be some, but not a ton. There is a modest amount of "Convective Available Potential Energy", or CAPE Monday afternoon. CAPE is essentially a measure of how unstable the atmosphere is. The more unstable...the better chance of thunderstorms. Monday afternoon: capeNot exactly off the charts.There is a fair amount of wind energy in the atmosphere Monday; so any strong shower or thunderstorm can pull down some hefty winds from up to the 5,000 foot level. Winds at that level will be approaching 50-60 mph by late afternoon: 850wind The Storm Prediction Center has the area in the "general thunderstorm" zone Monday, but not in any sort of enhanced risk. The air mass just will not be unstable enough, mostly as a result of it not being terribly moist. day3OK, now about the SNOW risk that you may have heard be chirping about over the last couple of days. Monday's cold front will be slowed down by a developing wave of low pressure along the southern half of it. Moisture will linger over eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania....and by Tuesday morning the air will have cooled significantly.I suspect it is going to snow Tuesday, especially in the morning/midday hours. I DON'T think this will be a problem on roads, as temperatures will be above freezing in most areas. But I can see how many locations get accumulations on the grass. A look at accumulation forecasts from the current computer models:European: eurosnowAn inch or two.GFS: gfsUnder an inch.Canadian: can2-3 inches.I suspect that accumulations on grassy surfaces will average 1/2"-1" across the Valley. That said, we are 3 days away from this so keep checking in with my thoughts on Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Whatever does stick will melt very quickly Wednesday. Another warming trend will kick in at the end of next week.Thanks for reading!Eric  

BLOG: A Bit of Everything!

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I thought I would touch on several different subjects today since there are no HUGE weather stories coming up. It is a beautiful day today, and Thursday looks good as well. This evening, grab a jacket and look skyward as there are a couple of cool things happening. As you may have heard me talking about, Mars is at "opposition" right now. What's the mean??? Well, the planets travel around the Sun at different speeds and trajectories. But once every 2 years, Mars and the Earth "line up" briefly, with the Earth directly between Mars and the Sun. This makes Mars appear particularly bright.An illustration, from the iOS App "Solar Walk" (A great app...costs a few bucks but is stunning): marsMars will rise around sunset in the eastern sky and will move almost right overhead after midnight.  Look for the brightest object. A good telescope or even binoculars will allow you too see the planet's trademark red tint.Also tonight, an excellent pass of the International Space Station. Here are the details: issOk, as for WEATHER, the next couple of days are looking good...although Thursday will be windy. Sustained winds by afternoon will probably be in the 15-25 mph range with gusts to 40: sfcwindAnd Holy Turbulence Alert for planes landing or taking off...winds at 5,000 feet will be up around 70-80 mph in parts of the region: 850 Rain will visit us a couple of times in the coming week, namely Thursday night/early Friday and Sunday night/Monday. Monday could be a real soaker, depending on the speed of the front (which is still up for debate). Total rain over the next week may be 1.5-2" across the region: qpfThere are a lot of forecasting challenges early next week revolving around the speed of a strong cold front and how much moisture will be lingering when the coldest of the air arrives. It is not outside of the realm of possibilities that we see snowflakes next Monday night. The European model gives some accumulations to the parts of the Great Lakes region: eurosnowThat's just one run of one model and again, uncertainty is quite high. Something to keep in mind though.A word about the longer range. Overall, a somewhat cooler than average pattern seems likely for the next 10-14 days. It's April now so a cooler than average day can still mean a high of 54. But still, there are not many signs of our first 80 degree day in this 10-14 day period. The Climate Forecast System model shows a cool-ish 10 day period from April 13-23: 1424 The same model does bring in the warmth at the end of April and start of May. Here's April 23-May 3: 244Let's hope that is right.Now, the REAL long range. You may have heard that El Nino is likely to come on strong this Summer and Fall. A reminder: El Nino is a significant warming of the waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean: elninowatertemperatureThis warming can influence global weather patterns and the strong ones (like we had in 1997-98) can have very significant consequences in many regions of the world. Some of those consequences are very bad and strong El Ninos have been known to contribute to many deaths, particularly in less developed countries.In our part of the world, the effects of an El Nino event are most pronounced in the WInter, although a somewhat cooler-than-average Summer season can sometimes result. ninoWinters tend to be warmer than average around here in El Nino situations. Stay tuned on this, as we will surely have a better grasp on the intensity of the El Nino in a couple of months.Thanks for reading!Eric

BLOG: Rain? Yes. Severe Weather? Maybe.

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We have enjoyed some great weather this week, but things are about to change. THe radar looks pretty imposing this morning: currentThat slug of rain will come through the Valley this afternoon and evening. Outdoor plans for after work/school are washed out today.Today is the 40th anniversary of the Super Outbreak of 1974, which included the devastating tornado in Xenia, about 4 hours southwest of Youngstown. outbreakmaplargeSo it seems somewhat appropriate to mention that severe weather season is starting to kick into high gear. Today will be a very busy day across the Mississippi Valley. Each of these maps shows the odds of an event (tornado, damaging wind gust, large hail) occurring within 25 miles of any point.Tornadoes: torday1Hail: day1hailDamaging wind: day1windNo severe weather is expected in northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania today. But tomorrow brings somewhat higher odds. A well-defined cold front will slice into warm and rather humid air across the Buckeye State and western PA:   tomorrow The Storm Prediction Center odds of severe weather of any kind within 25 miles of any location: day2I am doubtful that there will be many thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather here tomorrow. Why? The instability in the atmosphere, needed to cause lots of rising motion, isn't very high. One measure of instability is something we call CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy. We like to see CAPE values over 1,000 when looking for a widespread severe weather "event"...but values tomorrow are closer to 500: capeClouds are mostly to blame for the lack of instability. Clouds will prevent heating and destabilization of the lower atmosphere most of the day. By the time the sun tries to come out late in the afternoon, it may be too late for any storms to pop.But, IF any storms do get going, there is lots of wind energy aloft for them to pull down. Winds at 5,000 feet will be screaming at 50-75 mph tomorrow afternoon: 850windSo, bottom line: severe weather is not very likely tomorrow, BUT if any stray storms get going, they could produce hefty, and perhaps damaging winds.Rainfall totals over the next 60 hours will average 1.0"-1.5" across the Valley. This should not be enough to lead to flooding problems, even in flood prone areas. The Mahoning RIver at Leavittsburg will crest around 7 feet or so: leavNotice that 2nd "rise" in the graph on the right hand side. More rain is coming Monday and that will lead to rising water levels. When you add up the 2 rain events (today/tomorrow and Monday), rainfall totals will likely exceed 2" in our region: qpfAfter this unsettled period, it looks to warm back up and Spring will kick into high gear with lots of things blooming!Thanks for reading,Eric 

BLOG: A Look Back and Ahead

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As we start a new month, I thought it would be a good time to examine some of the COLD, hard facts about the weather over the last few months, as well as take a look at the upcoming weather in both the short and long range.First of all, I SUSPECT (but am not ready to guarantee) that we are done with accumulating snow this season. With just over 89", we have had another above-average season and our 3rd snowiest winter on record:snowwI remain a bit skeptical of the records at the YNG airport. I would be willing to bet that NO other reporting station in the country has had their 4 snowiest winters on record ALL SINCE THE 2007-2008 winter. We have had some snowy winters to be sure....but really?Anyway, here is how the snow breaks down by month this season. January, no surprise, was the snowiest...but December and February were not far behind: snowchartThe first quarter of 2014 has been remarkably cold. In fact it has been the 2nd coldest opening 3 months of a year since 1930 in Youngstown: jantomarchIt's interesting that as cold as March was, it was NOT all that snowy! It was the 3rd coldest March on record, but with just 8", was actually the 31st LEAST snowy (or 53rd snowiest) March since 1930: compareOk, let's talk about the future. After a windy and warm afternoon today, we have several round of rain heading our way later Wednesday through Friday. The Indians' home opener Friday afternoon could have some problems. Here's the weather map at the start of the day: fridayThat approaching cold front will spark showers much of the day. There might even be a clap of thunder. Best chance for a period of dry weather to get the game in will be after sunset.Beyond Friday, we are going to head into a period of cooler-than-average weather for the weekend and early next week. Not COLD, but cool for early April. The pattern at 18,000 feet looks much like the pattern we had for most of winter. Ridge of high pressure in the West, trough of low pressure around the Great Lakes: 500nexttueBUT, that pattern won't get "locked in" like it did in winter. In fact, long-range models are suggesting that a more "zonal", west-to-east flow will take hold toward mid-month...keeping the cold locked up in Canada and in the Pacific Northwest. A weak high pressure ridge may try to develop over the Southeast, allowing mild air to make inroads. It is also a pattern that could lead to a lot of severe weather in the middle of the country. Here's NEXT Saturday: 500nextweekendSo, the departures from average look like this for days 5-10 (the coming weekend through early next week): days510But then, days 10-20, the middle of April, look like this: days1020Not a WARM pattern for Northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania, but not a cold one either. That warmth over the Southeast will visit more often, but cold to the north will win a few battles too.The latest CFS climate model for the moth of April suggests that when we look back at April a month from today, it will go in the record books as near or even slightly above average in our part of the country: aprilAfter 3 VERY cold month, an AVERAGE April sounds great!Just for fun, what about May? The same model paints a warm picture, although look at the cold pocket right around the Great Lakes, which of course are still partly ice-covered and will be slow to warm. People living close to the lake shores will frequently ask "where is Spring??" well into May as that cold water will have a big impact. may Thanks for reading and enjoy a beautiful Tuesday afternoon!Eric

ANIMATION: Watch the Atmosphere Cool

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One of the tools that is in every meteorologists' tool belt is what are called "atmospheric soundings" or "Skew-T diagrams". There show how the atmosphere is behaving as you go up. We can look at how the temperature and humidity levels change, how the wind speed and direction changes, how "unstable" the atmosphere is...and many other things.One of the primary reasons for looking at these in the cold season is to see what type of precipitation is likely to occur.Here is the forecast sounding early Saturday afternoon: 1The temperature is the red line. Ground level, where we are, is the bottom of the graph. The top of the graph is 30-40,000 feet, near where commercial jets fly. The numbers at the bottom are the temperatures in Celsius. Temperatures increase from left to right. The "0" or freezing line, is what we want to pay attention to. Notice the temperature is to the right, or warmer, than that freezing line from the ground up to several thousand feet. That means that whatever precipitation is falling is in the form of rain. because any precipitation that forms in the frozen air above that level will melt on the way down.To get snow, we need much more of the atmosphere to cool below freezing (O degrees Celsius). That's what will happen Saturday afternoon and evening. Watch what happens to the temperature in this animation (the clock is in the lower right):output_96389pThe temperature, the red line, keeps moving left until the entire atmosphere above our heads is below freezing by 6-7:00pm. So, there will likely be some snow toward the end of the day Saturday. Looks like a coating to an inch or two.Eric

BLOG: More Snow?? Wait, WHAT???

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We are starting a warming trend this morning that will take us into the day Friday. AND, it will probably be in the 60s Monday. So it is with great regret that I must blog about the possibility of snow Saturday into Saturday night.Here's the bottom line right up front: This forecast is very tricky right now and confidence is not high. I can see where we get no accumulating snow and I can see where we get a few inches. It's just too early, with too many variables, to have a higher degree of confidence this morning. Confidence in the forecast will grow this afternoon and tomorrow.So, here's a peek "behind the curtain". Here's why confidence is low.On Saturday morning, low pressure will approach from the southwest: ecmwfued---conus-60-C-mslpthkpcp_white6Precipitation should break out during the midday or afternoon across the Mahoning and Shenango Valleys.But what TYPE of precipitation? Probably a cold rain, but snow and/or mixed precipitation may be nearby to the west. Here's the NAM model precipitation snapshot in the afternoon: namtypeNotice the snow is pretty close by.As precipitation starts falling and the atmosphere cools, I think the odds of seeing snow go up as the day wears on. So, while it probably will not START as snow, a changeover to snow seems likely at some point. But, the system will be pulling away. How much moisture will be left when it is cold enough to snow?? That's a big question, and one I am not sure of the answer of.A look at some of the snow accumulation forecast on the most recent models:Last night's NAM had a very quick changeover and gives us a couple/few inches: nam The GFS: gfsohioNADA!The Canadian: canohioAn inch or two perhaps.The European: euroohioJust about nothing.In these tough forecast situations, "ensemble" models can be of great help. The "initial conditions" (temperature, wind, etc.) are tweaked many times and with each tweak the model is run again. If the tweaks result in very different outcomes, the forecast confidence is lower. If the outcomes are similar, you tend to be more confident.Anyway, here's the SREF ensemble model's snow forecast: srefThere are a couple of "stragglers" that give us 3-4", but most of the members of this model give us less than an inch. Many of the lines are clustered at ZERO. The average of all 21 members is a bit less than an inch.The European ensemble model odds of 1" or more of snow: eurooddsAbout 10-20%.Our friends at the National Weather Service are more bullish on accumulating snow here. Here's their probability forecast of more than 1" of snow: 1oddsWhat about 2" or more? 2oddsAnd finally, their odds of 4" or more: 4oddsMy suspicion is that these odds are too high. BUT, I am not ready to discount those ideas yet. We will see what this afternoon's models have to say. Right now I lean toward a minor snow accumulation, maybe a coating to an inch or two (still too much for late March!!), but as I said at the top....confidence is not high.Who wants to be a meteorologist??? Haha.Thanks for reading.Eric