BLOG: A Look At Where We've Been, Where We Are Going

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With my attention focused on the weekend (non)storm, I did not get a chance to do a recap of Meteorological Winter over the weekend. Meteorological Winter is the 3 coldest months of the year (Dec-Feb). This is different than Astronomical Winter, which is based on the Earth's position in it's orbit around the Sun and runs from about Dec 21/22-March 21/22 each year.Of course, the headline of this winter is "IT'S BEEN COLD AND SNOWY!!". But let's take a deep dive into the numbers to see HOW cold and snowy it has been.First, an overview of how each day of the season went temperature-wise: wintertempsYou can see just how often we were below-average, especially in January and February.Here's the snowfall graph for Dec-Feb and how this year compares to average and the snowiest winter ever (just 3 years ago): wintersnowSpeaking of snow, it of course was one of the snowiest December-February periods on record here. The list:snowhist This of course only tells part of the story, as snow did occur in November and early this March. How we stack up when you take the entire "snow season" into account: snowoctnowNotice the top 6 are ALL recent years! WHY is that? I am not sure but it's interesting and merits some investigating!Back to temperatures. For Meteorological Winter, this will go down as the 10th coldest season on record:temphist December was actually a touch above average. If you just look at January-February...janfebWe have had many below-zero low temperatures. You can add 1 to our total this year as we were of course below zero this morning: belowzeroAnd high temperatures have been below freezing a LOT: highsAdd one more to this year, as it will only be in the 20s this afternoon.  Put another way...since our first sub-freezing high on November 24, 55% of days have featured a high below freezing in Youngstown.Is there relief in sight? We will bust into an early Spring?No.While it is unlikely that the kind of harsh, record-breaking cold that we have had over the last 24 hours will return...temperatures should generally be below average for the foreseeable future. There will be the occasional mild day, but they will be few and far between. The latest GFS Ensemble model temperature outlook for days 8-16:816 After that, the CFS (Climate Forecast System) outlook isn't great either. March 18-28:1929 March 23-April 2: 243 Wish I had better news! But thanks for reading anyway.Eric

BLOG: What happened to the BIG storm??

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On Wednesday afternoon, I posted this on social media:"-Putting numbers in a forecast more than a few days out is a recipe for flip-flopping and changing forecasts with each new run of the models. 4-8" becomes 6-10" becomes 3-6" becomes 6-10", etc etc. We would rather you hear as few numbers as possible so that our message is clear. The closer we are to an event, the less likely it is that the forecast will have to change much. "In some ways, I didn't follow my own credo. This storm was coming on a weekend and by Thursday, I felt it was time to give people a firm idea of what to expect. We should have waited until Friday.Our initial forecast was for 5-10". We are getting 2-5". So, what happened? Why are we getting less snow?This storm was supposed to come in 2 "waves". The first one, the one we are getting this morning, followed by a second, heavier wave tonight and Monday morning. Here's this morning's radar:natrad The reason for the lower amounts is that the 2nd wave is not going to get pulled northeast like originally expected.A look at the features at 18,000 feet tells the story a bit better. 500Essentially, the "northern feature", a trough of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes, was supposed exhibit some "pull" on the southern feature...lifting it somewhat north. BUT, the northern feature ended up moving too fast to give the southern one a lift. The southern feature missed it's ride, basically. So, it is moving more due east. Getting the interactions of these things right was key to getting the forecast right. The southern feature did not get onto the mainland US until yesterday, so the models had a hard time figuring this out. And therefore, humans were fooled.Our forecast could have been worse! Thursday morning we were staring at models that looked like this: bigeuroYup, that's the European model, usually one of our better models, predicting a FOOT of snow in parts of the Valley.Some well-known national weather companies had us getting 6-12" and for a time and I saw a map that had the Valley in a "10"+" band for a while. So our 5-10" forecast was actually sort of conservative.The lesson for forecasters? In very, VERY complex situations like this one...it's best to wait until you are within 48 hours of an event before making a snow accumulation forecast. It is tough to abide by this, especially when it is coming on a weekend. And it's 2014, so social media "buzz" builds to a fever pitch, even a WEEK or more ahead of a possible storm. There is pressure to make a statement, to get your forecast "out there".There is a reason why we are vague and non-committal when viewers, family members, neighbors, pets, etc. start asking us "how much you thinking" about a storm that's more than a couple or few days away.  It's not because we ENJOY being coy. It's because weather forecasting is complicated. Things change. The atmosphere is so complex it boggles the mind. It's because these types of things can and do (and always will) happen.Just know this, I  (along with Jess and Mike) are on it. When it's obvious changes are needed, we start making them. Bad forecasts don't stay bad for long. Take a look back at my tweets, Facebook postings, etc. My train of thought is on there.Winter can end any time now!Eric

BLOG: Snow Storm Update

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Good morning all,If you followed my social media posts and/or watched me on TV last evening, you noticed I was becoming concerned that the storm is not going to behave as originally expected. That trend continued overnight.So, what changed?After the first wave of snow Saturday night/Sunday morning, a second surge of moisture was supposed to ride up the front from southwest to northeast, bringing out heaviest snow Sunday night and Monday morning.  BUT, instead of coming northeast...this second surge will track DUE east and miss us to the south. gfsSo now expect the WORST of the storm to be Sunday morning and afternoon, with snow tapering off and ending by the end of the afternoon. Simulated radar at 9:00am: 9amBy 1:00pm, the snow should ALREADY be winding down north of I-80:1pmIt will snow HARD for a time and travel will be slow Sunday. That's the bad news. The good news? Monday morning should be just fine for school/work.Total accumulations across the region: 2-5 inches.More updates on Facebook and Twitter when I have some time today and tonight.Eric

BLOG: Heavy Snow Coming, But How Much?

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Good morning all,It's a windy and cold Thursday and we have to watch for some beefy snow showers and squalls this morning. This will be followed by subzero temperatures tonight. Stay up on the latest short term weather by checking out the social media outlets (mine and Jess's).This post will focus on the Sunday-Monday snow threat. We plan on looking at the latest models before putting accumulations in our official forecast this afternoon, but this post will give you a peek "behind the curtain".First of all, it's important to note that the disturbance largely responsible for the snow threat is still over the Pacific Ocean. Computer models will be more trustworthy once the system is over land, since there will be more data available for them to analyze. Here's an animation showing the system crashing into California and then coming east. Click to animate:output_f74bhhThe colors represent the "vorticity" or spin in the atmosphere at about 18,000 feet. Spinning air parcels at that level aid in air rising and clouds/precipitation forming.Snow will get going late Saturday night and continue at varying intensity Sunday. There will be times Sunday that it is not snowing that hard at all. We are still too far out to pinpoint when snow is likely to be lighter/heavier during Sunday.We are pretty confident the worst of this storm will be Sunday NIGHT and early Monday. Here's a few computer model snapshots at 1am Monday morning:GFS: gfsEuropean: euroCanadian: canThe Canadian looks a bit different than the other two; snow is lighter at this time step on the Canadian. This is an outlier at the moment.One thing we look at when figuring out how hard precipitation will be falling is the "vertical velocity" at about 10,000 feet. It shows how quickly the air is rising. The faster it is rising, the heavier the precipitation is likely to be. Here's the GFS vertical velocity map at 1am Monday:vvlIt has the best upward motion south of Rt. 30, but still looks decent for most of the Valley.How Much Snow?? That is the question.Let's see what the current models say. First, the GFS:gfssnowA general 6-10" range for the WFMJ viewing area.The Canadian:  cansnowLooks like a range of 5-12", with the heaviest south.The European: eurosnowYikes! A solid 11-12" for the region. You are likely to see this map or something similar on social media outlets today.BUT! A word of caution. This is the "operational", or "deterministic" run of the European.  There are 51 "members" of the European Ensemble Model. What's an ensemble model? A lower resolution version of the "deterministic" model is run 51 times, with each "member" having slightly different initial conditions (pressure, temperature, humidity, etc.) This proves useful because we simply cannot model the atmosphere perfectly. Running a model 51 times, allowing for "wiggle room" in the initial conditions gives us more of a range of possibilities.Anyway, the mean, or average snow accumulation of those 51 members is significantly lower than the operational...which makes the 11-12" idea harder to believe. Have a look:euro ensThe mean is 5-6".So, what's the bottom line?? I think the low end of the snowfall range will be around 5". What's the top end? Not sure yet. Probably somewhere between 8-10". More to come this afternoon!Thanks for reading!Eric

BLOG: The Never Ending Winter

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This morning was another reminder that sometimes a small amount of snow can be WORSE for road conditions than a few inches....especially if it comes at the wrong time of day. While some places got an inch or so, most locations "only" got a coating, but it came at rush hour and roads got slick in a hurry.The radar at 9:15am showed the last of the hefty snow bands in Lawrence County, with flurries elsewhere:915rad It sure was nice to see bare ground before this morning's snow. The snow cover map does not reflect today's snow and shows a nice zone of bare ground across the region:depth For the rest of the work week, we will be "nickled and dimed" by a few weak systems that can, as this morning's did, drop small accumulations of snow. Another one will cruise through Wednesday morning and another Thursday. Snowfall amounts with each will generally be under an inch, but watch for "sneaky" bands like we had this morning that can drop locally a bit more.The BIG story this week? Yup, the COLD. Our 7-day forecast:CaptureWe are forecasting the 2nd coldest stretch of weather for these dates since 1930 in Youngstown. Here's the list of coldest February 25-March 3 periods:coldest Plan on 3 straight mornings with Wind Chills below zero. Here's a computer Wind Chill forecast for daybreak Wednesday through Friday mornings:Wednesday:wcwedsThursday:wcthursFriday:wcfridayThe longer range? It looks ugly through most of the first half of March. The 8-16 day outlook off the Climate Forecast System model shows temperatures much below average for March 4-12:816 We have some forecasting challenges ahead for the weekend and early next week. There is likely to be a storm that impacts the Valley sometime in the Sunday-Monday time frame. How big of a storm, what type of precipitation it will bring, if snow....how much...all these things are unclear right now.If you are seeing web sites/Facebook pages that have scary maps with dramatic headlines and/or are providing SPECIFIC snowfall forecasts a week or more out...STAY AWAY! Stay far, far away. Thanks for reading!Eric  

Blog: Wild Next 24 Hours; Harsh Cold To Return

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The day started frosty and foggy with temperatures in the 20s, but a strong warm front is tracking our way this morning with rain along it. Here's the radar snapshot around 9:30am:currentAmazing that there is lightning with this, considering it is occurring over a deep snowpack!Plan on a wet midday across the Valley. Here's the 1pm simulated radar:1pmsim After the first wave of rain lifts across the area, a break in the rain will occur for much of the late afternoon and evening hours. It will turn milder and we may reach our high VERY late in the day...perhaps after 9pm. Check out the temperature map for 9pm this evening, it's easy to pick out the warm front!9pmtempsNear 60 in central Ohio! We will probably get into the lower 50s this evening around Youngstown.The threat for severe weather is certainly highest from I-70 south. That's the area the Storm Prediction Center has outlined in the enhanced risk (yellow):day1There is a "moderate" risk of severe weather in Kentucky and Tennessee.The line of showers and thunderstorms that is expected to bring the threat for wind damage will roll through the Ohio Valley late this evening through the overnight. The simulated radar at 1:00am shows the line bearing down on NE Ohio/western PA:1amNotice the line looks more threatening with deeper reds from Columbus on south. Another source with a view of what the radar may look like around this time:1amradSo what do I expect to happen around the Mahoning and Shenango Valleys? A brief, perhaps less than 20 minute period of wind speeds that could exceed 45 mph as this line pushes through sometime between 11pm-2am. A period of pretty heavy rain around the same time.I think the risk for wind speeds high enough to cause damage is pretty low, but not zero. The wind at 3,000-5,000 feet will be SCREAMING and it won't take much to bring some of that wind energy down. The wind at 5,000 feet will be between 70-90 mph late this evening:850The threat for hail and tornadoes is very low.One thing for sure, we don't need this rain, with the deep snow pack and warming temperatures. Flooding is a concern, especially near rivers and in areas of poor drainage. Some basement flooding is possible. The snow pack contains about 1" of water right now. How much rain will fall? Looks like an average of 0.75-1.00".Here's the latest rain forecast from the NWS:qpfPretty close to 1".The latest SREF model, an ensemble model with 21 "members", gives an average of 1" or so, with a range of about 0.60" to 1.30":sref The latest river forecasts from the NWS show the Mahoning River rising above flood stage at Leavittsburg and Youngstown.Leavittsburg (notice crest is not until Saturday morning):leavYoungstown:yo Ice jams could cause additional problems.Finally, a look at the long range. Unfortunately, we are heading right back into the pattern that has produced the harsh cold for much of this winter. Take a look at the 5-10 temperature outlook across the country:5-10Temperatures may be around 10 degrees below average for that period (Feb 25-March 2) here.  The actual numbers (highs/lows) on this same model for the next 16 days are kind of obscene, especially right around the end of February and start of March:gefs Don't throw tomatoes at me!Eric   

Blog: Eventful Weather To Continue Into March

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There is so much to talk about in the world of weather that I could do 4 videos and 5 blog posts about this pattern if I wanted! So let's get right to it. We'll take things 1 "event" at a time.1) Monday night/Tuesday Morning's SnowWhat Went Right?-Timing was pretty good. The snow started and ended pretty much when it was supposed to.-Accumulations were, for the most part, within our forecasted range. There were, as always, some exceptions...Newton Falls picked up over 8".What Went Wrong?-I didn't anticipate the intense band of snow that rolled through between 4-5:30am; it had lightning and thunder with it! Here's what the radar looked like as it went through:radThat band drove snow totals to the top end (and in some cases, over) our forecast range.-I didn't play up the WIND enough. Blowing and drifting snow was a big issue!This map shows some of the snow reports received by the NWS:reportsAs you can see, amounts were highest from western Trumbull County on west.2) Severe Weather Threat? Thursday NightA strong cold front will march through the East late Thursday and Thursday night. With a foot of snow on the ground, it's hard to believe nasty thunderstorms are possible here, but it certainly cannot be ruled out. The higher threat is indeed to our west, as outlined by the Storm Prediction Center:day3 Between 10pm-2am, a line of thunderstorms with strong winds is likely to push east through eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. The 1:00am Friday weather map shows strong low pressure over the northern lakes with showers and storms along a cold front in our region:sfcprecip Here is a closer look at the "simulated" radar at 1:00am:1amthurnight It certainly will not be warm and humid like during Spring/Summer thunderstorms, but there are reasons to think this line could be nasty. The 500 millibar chart, showing conditions in the atmosphere at around 18,000 feet, shows a strong low pressure center with lots of "vorticity", or spin:500The tilt of the system puts Ohio and Pennsylvania in a zone that is very favorable for rapidly rising air. Rising air is one of the ingredients needed for thunderstorms, and especially severe thunderstorms.The main threat will be WIND. The wind at around 5,000 feet above our heads will likely we screaming at 60-80 knots (about 70-90 mph) late Thursday evening. If some of that wind energy can get pulled down to the surface, wind can be a problem (again, especially in western Ohio). Here's the forecast wind speeds at 1am Friday morning at 5,000 feet:850wind 3) Potential For FloodingAll the snow recently has left us with a very healthy snow pack. It's as deep as a foot in spots. That snow is "holding" a lot of water. This map shows the "snow water equivalent", or about how much liquid is stored in the snow pack:snowwater Melt a chunk of that down and add a healthy dose of rain, and you have a recipe for potential flooding. Even if no thunderstorms survive this far east, up to an inch or so of rain is possible Thursday and Thursday night. Here's the NWS rain forecast. which I think is reasonable:qpf Also of concern with some f the thawing: ice jams on the rivers.The NWS outlook for the Mahoning River at Leavittsburg, Warren and Youngstown shows the possibility of the river reaching or exceeding flood stage Friday:leavwarrenyng I doubt a MAJOR flooding event is on our hands, but there may be some minor problems.4) Return of the Cold!Colder-than-average air will dominate the pattern at the end of February and early March. Here's the NWS 8-14 day temperature outlook, showing a high chance of cold weather in much of the East:8-14 Does that mean we will get a lot more snow? We can't say yet. Let's hope not. My back is tired from shoveling.5) Some OptimismFinally, the days ARE getting longer and eventually Spring will win the battle. Tuesday's sunset was at 6:00 and it feels good to think about the lighter, warmer evenings that are coming.sunsets  Thanks for reading!Eric