Blog: More Winter Before The Thaw

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Most of us are itching for a break from the relentless winter weather...and it is still coming. But before that milder air gets in here, we will be dealing with more cold and snow.Of course, it's been a very cold first half of February....not only here but in much of the country. Here's the temperature anomaly map for the month so far:febHere in Youngstown, we are running a whopping 9 degrees below average for the month so far.While we have a healthy snow pack here, there is actually quite a bit more snow on the ground to our east and west. Many places in northwest Ohio and central Pennsylvania have over 9" of snow on the ground (with many spots having well over a foot):depth Today, a pretty weak system will cruise through. Here's what the radar looked like at 8:30am:Capture The simulated radar at noon shows light snow across the Valley:hrrrnoon How much snow today? I still think generally 1/2" to 1". Watch for slick travel around midday and early afternoon. The snow will taper off and end later in the afternoon.A more significant low pressure area will track through the Valley late Monday and Monday night. Snow will begin just after sunset. While mixed precipitation will occur closer to Interstate 70, this looks to be all snow for the Valley. Here's how the radar should generally look at 7:00pm:ptypeThe pink color toward I-70 is the mix. There MIGHT be some sleet mixing in as far north as southern Columbiana County, but again this will be all snow for just about the entire WFMJ viewing area.How much??? Enough to shovel and plow, for sure. By the time the snow tapers off early Tuesday morning, I suspect an average of 3" will have accumulated in most spots.The SREF model has 21 "members". When you combine today's light snow with Monday night's snow, the forecast from those 21 members of the model range from 1" to 6". The average is 3.5":srefAnd I think that forecast is pretty realistic. 1/2" today, then 3" Monday night.What are the odds Monday night's system "overachieves" and gives us more than 4"? Low, but not super low. NOAA has the odds of more than 4" of snow around 40% here:oddsI would put the odds closer to 30% myself, but 40% is not unreasonable.After Monday night's snow, YES it is going to warm up. BUT, the warm up does not look as dramatic as we had hoped a few days ago. 60 does NOT look reachable now. But 50 is within reach. Here's a map of Thursday's highs on the European model:thurshighs Friday's highs:frihighs And Saturday's outlook:sathighs It may be tough to get out and enjoy Thursday's mild temperatures because rain is likely. Friday and Saturday should bring quieter weather.Enjoy the mild air if you can! Cold is likely to return after Saturday. The latest GFS Ensemble model's temperature outlook for the next 16 days looks like this:gefs And March? The latest climate models are painting a chilly picture for the month as a whole. Sure, there will be mild periods...but the month overall is likely to be colder than average.march Have a great Sunday and thanks for reading!Eric 

A Guide to the Next 10 Days of Weather

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I would like to think that, now that we are done with this morning's frigid temperatures, we are DONE with the worst of this winter's cold! This morning's lows were impressive. A clear sky and relatively fresh snowpack will give you temperatures like this:lows We have the cold, but at least we don't have the MESS that is occurring in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. This morning's radar is "pretty" but this is a serious situation in Georgia and the Carolinas:serad There will be tens or hundreds of thousands without power for days as a result of the ice accumulation. Major cities such as Charlotte will have their biggest snow event in years. If you have a flight out of PIT, CAK, or CLE over the next couple of days...call ahead as there may be travel delays. Not because of our weather, but because so many major hubs are dealing with the hideous weather.The storm is a miss for us...the snow will get about as far west as the Appalachian Mountains to our east tonight. Here's the simulated radar for the middle of the night:tonightradFor the Mahoning and Shenango Valleys, quiet weather will be the rule through Friday morning. Our next weather maker will be a weak "Alberta Clipper" system that is scheduled to arrive on Friday. The latest computer models are not that impressed with the system, generally giving us an inch or so Friday and Friday evening.This morning's SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) model looks like this:srefOn Friday (the 14th), the mean, or average of all 21 members of this model is 1/2 inch or so by Friday evening. Some members (each line represents one of the "members")  of the model give us more snow Saturday, but there is not much support on other models for that. I lean toward the idea a dry and cold Saturday for now.For a couple of days now you have (hopefully) heard me honking about a BIG warmup next week. It still looks on track for late in the week. The pattern will undergo a very significant change across the country over the next 10 days. Have a look at the pattern today vs. what is expected in 9 days:Today: a trough of low pressure over the Midwest and Southeast.500today Next Friday: A massive ridge off the coast of the Southeast, and a trough out west:500nextfri We have not seen that kind of a look on a weather map in a long time! This will open the floodgates to some very mild air. Here's the GFS Ensemble model temperature forecast for next 16 days:gefshighs Notice we reach the mid 50s late next week, then cool off....BUT no harsh cold returns to the pattern.The European model says 60! Sixty!!! is on the table late next week:euronextfri Finally today, I love statistics and charts and what not, so here are a few that show how this winter season is shaping up compared to others.Total snowfall:snow Number of days with at least 1" of snow on the ground:depth Number of mornings below zero (we added one to this this morning):belowzero Thanks for reading!Eric

Mmmmmmm, Humble Pie! Sunday Snow Thoughts:

in

humble_pieFirst of all, I want to apologize for the bad forecast. Saturday night/Sunday's snow was a true forecast "bust". I walked out of work at 12:05am Friday night confident that any snow over the weekend would be "no big deal". I took Saturday off and nursed my bad cold.So I was just as surprised as you when I woke up to a few inches of snow Sunday morning!So, what happened? Essentially, many of the computer models we use as tools to help us forecast the weather did not pick up on how intense the system would be until the last minute. The models were fooled....and as a result, human forecasters (myself included) were fooled.That does not excuse the bad forecast, as our job is to add value to the models, to be able to sense when they have the wrong idea and to adjust forecasts accordingly.I have been forecasting professionally for over 12 years and have had many forecast busts. I know this: each bust makes me a better forecaster. Lessons are learned. The busts motivate me to work even HARDER.So again, if your plans were inconvenienced on Sunday as a result of more snow than was expected....I am sorry and we will get 'em next time!Now, some good news! Milder weather looks to be on the way for the last 10 days of February:cfs_anom_t2m_conus_2014021000_x81

Mid-Winter Scorecard and a Look Ahead

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Groundhog Day was a few days ago, and it's on February 2nd because it's nearly halfway between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox. So, we are a bit over halfway through Winter. I thought it would be a good time to see where we are in terms of historical Winters in Northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania.First of all, the Sun's rays are still definitely most directly aimed at the Southern Hemisphere but not as severely as earlier in the season! Here's how it looks from space this evening:IMG_0767We are also gaining daylight at a more rapid pace in February as the Sun gets a bit higher in the sky. We are gaining almost 2.5 minutes per day, as shown on the sun table for the rest of the month:sunOf course, we just got done with a pretty healthy snow and ice storm here, and we were not alone. Snow cover across the US is very extensive now, almost as extensive as it has been all season:uscoverCloser to home, notice the snow pack is not as deep near Youngstown as it is to our south and west:ohiocoverOk, so how is the winter shaping up? Cold and snowy, right?? Yes. But not nearly as cold and snowy as some seasons. Here's a graph showing average temperatures through this date since 1930:wintertempsColder than the past couple of winters, yes. But when ranking the winters since 1930, this season is just the 23rd coldest:tempranikAs far as snow, this season does not compare to the mega winter of 2010-11, but it's been a busy one:snowwinterWe are in 10th place on the list of snowiest winters since 1930:snowrankHow does this season compare to average? Above by quite a bit, but check out how it compares to that huge winter a few years ago:snowchartLooking ahead, well....1690017_280953372058313_2041150209_nBut seriously...we are locked into winter for the foreseeable future. The Wednesday evening temperature map tells the story:tempsThe next 2 weeks look to dominated by cold. Latest GFS ensemble model shows it:gefsNumbers on left side of chart are far temperatures will be above or below average ("0").Long range forecasting is very tricky and forecasts will change frequently. BUT, as of right now the "CFS" climate model shows relief in March:marchYES, that is an above-average temperature color over Ohio and western PA! Let's hope this pans out.Thanks for reading!Eric

Monday Morning Snow Storm Update

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Good morning all!Here's a quick update with what you need to know on the Tuesday night snow event.First of all, one storm is thankfully missing us today; it's a big deal for the East Coast. The storm that WILL impact the Valley Tuesday night is barely noticeable on the radar in the Southwest:rad Snow will begin around 7-9pm Tuesday evening. Here's what the radar should generally look like at the peak of the storm (around 1am Wednesday):NAM Notice the mixed precipitation will be MAINLY south of the WFMJ viewing area. That said, I think there is still a chance for some sleet to mix in from around Rt 224 on south. Where sleet occurs, snow totals will not be as high.BOTTOM LINE:1) Snow begins 7-9 pm Tuesday.2) Worst of storm: 10pm-3am. Snow will taper off quickly in the couple of hours before sunrise Wednesday.3) Snow totals: A general 3-7", with areas south of 224 (and especially south of Rt 30) closer to the 3" due to sleet mixing in. A little more than 7" is possible around the Interstate 80 corridor....but 3-7" should work out for the majority of the area.4) Leftover scattered snow showers on Wednesday could add small additional accumulations, generally under an inch.More updates this afternoon!Eric