And Now.....The REAL Cold Comes.

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Captain Obvious: It's very cold and windy this morning across the region. Wind chills were well below zero at the start of the day. And of course, we have our fresh snow on the ground. The forecast worked out well Thursday with most places picking up between 3-6 inches of snow.Here is a map showing how much snow fell over the last 24 hours or so:snow Now we really can start focusing on the next round of precipitation and the INCREDIBLE cold to follow. The leading edge of the intense cold will be accompanied by some snow as the air mass moves south and east. Here's the Sunday evening weather map:sundayevening The air will probably warm up just enough ahead of the system that many places will see a mix or even changeover to rain for a time Sunday evening. This will cut down on overall snow totals. This looks like a 1-3" or at most 2-4" type of event for most of the Mahoning Valley, and that idea is supported by the latest computer models.The European model has a bit less than 2" here. Notice the much higher amounts to the west where there will be no mixing and colder air:eurosnow The Canadian Model has a similar idea:canadiansnow After the snow comes the cold. Temperatures will FALL all day Monday and we should be below zero by sunset. Overnight lows Monday night will be outrageous. Our forecast is for -16, but -20 is not out of the question. The European model has been singing that song consistently.  Here's it's forecasted overnight lows:ecmwf_t2min_cleveland_18 Other models are not quite as extreme and we lean toward those models somewhat. Here's the list of all time record lows in Youngstown:lowesttemps The REALLY bad news? The wind is looking to be fierce for a while after the arctic air arrives. The Wind Chills shown on the GFS computer model are unbelievable:gfs_windchill_ohio_33YES, THAT'S -45 DEGREES. I suspect that is TOO LOW, but still, -25 to -35 is a real possibility for the Wind Chill Tuesday morning.This is the kind of cold and wind that can lead to frostbite in less than 10-15 minutes. There will be scores of dead car batteries. If your home is prone to pipes freezing, take the time to insulate them. And of course, common sense applies when it comes to pets. Keep them in and if they HAVE to go out, make sure it is only for a couple of minutes.The HIGH is likely to be below zero Tuesday and that is quite rare. The coldest HIGH temperatures on record in Youngstown:lowesthighs Jess Briganti will be in Saturday morning and I will be on duty Sunday morning getting you prepared for this amazing, but dangerous weather situation.Thanks for reading!Eric 

Youngstown Weather Year in Review 2013

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Like all years, there were many weather "highs" and "lows" in 2013. Hot weather, cold weather, wet weather, dry weather, snowy weather. But when we look at the year as a whole, what do we find? It was VERY typical! In fact, the average temperature of 49.1 degrees is exactly normal for Youngstown!91 was reached on two consecutive days in July (the 18th and 19th). A cold snap in January sent the mercury down to 3 above on both the 23rd and 24th.dayfile Notice the precipitation total: almost exactly average!Here's a chart showing the temperature spread every day this year, with record highs and lows shown as well:2013temps  How did this year compare to past years, temperature wise? Here is a look at the average temperature each year going back to 1930:19302013temps  As you can see, this year was cooler than the last few.This chart shows how precipitation trends evolved over the year. After a dry Spring/early Summer, the second half of Summer was wet and included some flooding problems in July:2013precip 2013 was quite a bit drier than 2012:20122013precip Overall precipitation was near normal for the year, but snowfall was above normal. Here's how this year's snow compares to years past:snow19302013 2014 is going to start very cold and snowy. What will the rest of the year bring? How will it compare to 2013? Check back in 365 days :)Eric  

2014 Starting With a Bang!

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After picking up an inch or so worth of snow Monday night and this morning, a period of quieter weather will be with us this afternoon and evening. It will just be windy and cold!If you will be out celebrating the arrival of the new year tonight, be aware that there may be a touch of snow or flurries around...perhaps just enough to cause a slippery spot or two, especially on sidewalks, parking lots, etc.This band of light snow will encompass much of northern Ohio and the southern Great Lakes:midnightsnow As for the daylight hours of New Years' Day, I think there will be some light snow around at times, especially north of I-80. Parts of Trumbull and Mercer counties might get an inch or two, with less than an inch more likely farther south. Here's what the radar may look like at 4pm:4pmrad Notice the "steadier" snow in northwest Ohio? That will pivot across the state and through the Youngstown area Wednesday night and Thursday morning/midday. That time frame is when accumulations are most likely across the entire viewing area.HOW MUCH??When we total up snow accumulations from Wednesday through Thursday (again, MOST of it occurs Wednesday night/Thursday morning and midday)....the computer models have come into pretty good agreement. My "first stab" of 3-6" made Monday morning looks pretty good. Best chance for the high end of the that range will be north of I-80.Here's the European model accumulation forecast:eurosnowThe American GFS model:gfssnowThe latest Short Range Ensemble Model (blue line) has an average of near 7" at the YNG airport. This is probably a bit high, but not totally out of the question:CaptureOk, let's talk about the cold for a minute. It's going to come in 2 waves. The first one arrives in the wake of the snow Thursday night through Saturday morning.Lows Friday morning (on European model):eurofriamMany places will flirt with 0 Friday morning and again Saturday morning. Here's Saturday's lows, again according to the European:eurosatamNext week's cold is likely to be more intense, and some of the coldest weather we have had in at least a few years. How cold it gets is a tough forecast this far out. I think low temperatures of -5 to -10 are POSSIBLE for 1-2 mornings next week. Stay tuned!Eric

A Wild First Day of "Winter"!

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Winter began at 12:11pm Saturday and of course it was unusually warm and wet. Take a look at rainfall totals since mid-morning yesterday:rainohioRadar-estimated rainfall totals over the last 36 hours have been impressive as well:cle Totals were even higher in SW Ohio with up to 5" just northwest of Dayton:iln While not much thunder and lightning occurred last night, a very impressive shot of wind and rain rolled through between 1:45-2:30. Here's the 2:00 am radar:2AM There were several reports of wind damage across the region...most heavily concentrated from the Ohio River south:reports Since rainfall totals were not quite as high as feared, the flooding threat along the Mahoning River does not look as high as yesterday. Crests will still be above flood stage later today:Leavittsburg:leav Warren:warren Youngstown:yo I (and this blog) will be on vacation starting Monday! I wish you and yours a Merry Christmas!-Eric  

The Big Pre-Christmas Washout of 2013

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Another weekend....another storm! This time it is RAIN and not snow that is our big concern. Scattered showers will occur today, with steadier rain expected for Saturday. The heaviest rain is likely to fall late Saturday and Saturday night.This map shows the slug of heavy rain pushing through before daybreak on Sunday:ecmwfued---conus-60-C-mslpthkpcp_white6How much rain? The highest totals are likely to be from western Ohio down through the lower Ohio River Valley. Here's how much rain the European model predicts:eurorainA good 2 inches in the Mahoning Valley, with 3-5 inches from Toledo to Cinci and points southwest.The National Weather Service has an even beefier prediction, with over 3" for most of the WFMJ viewing area. I think this is probably somewhat overdone and that we are likely to be closer to 2" total (between now and Sunday morning).qpfcloseA broader view of the NWS forecast shows how water-logged the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys will be:qpfbigThere is also a SEVERE weather risk....thankfully not here though. While a rumble of thunder is possible in the Youngstown area Saturday night, we are not expecting damaging winds or hail. Map shows enhanced risk in yellow for Cinci, Louisville, etc:day2Those who  live near rivers, streams and creeks need to be aware of the elevated flood risk, especially Saturday night and Sunday. Here is the forecast for the Mahoning River at Leavittsburg, Warren and Youngstown. Minor flooding possible, and moderate flooding cannot be ruled out:leavwarrenyoAfter the rainy weekend, it looks quieter but colder for the few days around Christmas. As we have been saying for a few days now, a White Christmas is not likely at across the area. There will not be an inch on the ground Christmas morning and Christmas Day is likely to be snow-free. That said, there may be some "mood" flurries on Christmas Eve:xmaseveChristmas Eve will be windy and COLD with wind chills in the teens.Who will get a White Christmas? Lots of places in the Midwest, northern New England:eurodepthThanks for reading! Have a good, safe weekend!Eric

How High Is Flood Risk This Weekend?

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The combination of heavy rain and snow melt will lead to an elevated risk of flooding near some rivers, streams and creeks across the Valley. Here is a look at the foretasted risk for flooding along the Mahoning River at 3 spots:In Youngstown, minor flooding seems fairly likely by Sunday with an outside chance of moderate flooding:ytownAlong the river in Warren, a good chance for minor flooding, with some risk of moderate flooding (along with a small chance of major flooding):warren At Leavittsburg, a similar forecast. Minor flooding likely, with moderate flooding a possibility:leav 

An Update on The Warmth, the Rain and Christmas!

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Today will be another cold day with temperatures in the 20s, but much is about to change. Take a look at the change in the jet stream configuration between now  (top) and Friday (bottom):jetnowjetfridayA trough of low pressure over the East will be replaced by a ridge of high pressure, centered over the Southeast. A deep through of low pressure will move over the Rockies. The ridge will allow warm air to surge north. The warmest air is likely to be overhead Sunday morning. The European model MAY be a bit too warm, but still, check out it's forecast high temperatures Sunday:eurohighssunThat's UPPER 60s in Northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania. Notice the dramatic drop on the other side of the front in Northwest Ohio.All of this warmth will zap our snow pack...and that process will be aided by rain. Perhaps a lot of rain. Check out the NOAA total rainfall prediction between now and Sunday night:qpfWhile amounts may be higher to our west, a good 1-2 inches of rain is likely here...with the potential for more. This combined with the snow melt raises the concern for some flooding. Here's a map showing the "snow water equivalent", which is  It is the amount of water contained within the snow pack. There is up to an inch or so of water in the Mahoning Valley snow pack currently.snowwaterThese factors have led the NWS to outline much of the region for "possible" flooding this weekend:floodingAfter a warm and wet weekend, we have big changes coming next week. Monday will be windy and 30-35 degrees colder with snow flurries possible. Here's the surface map for that afternoon:gfsmondaySnow accumulations are not likely to be significant Monday and these may be the LAST snowflakes we see before Christmas Day. Right now, the holiday looks tranquil.The European Model outlook:euroxmasThe GFS Model has a somewhat different idea on the placement of some features such as the cold front, but quiet weather is still advertised for our region. Maybe there is a late-day flurry:gfsxmasSo, our chances of a White Christmas are not looking high this year. Based on the last 78 Christmas Days, here are the "historical" odds of a White Christmas in Youngstown:oddsHighs on Christmas Day are likely to be in the mid/upper 30s.Thanks for reading!Eric