Monday Morning Weather Information Bonanaza

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First, since December is half over, let's review how the month is going so far. Obviously, it's been cold and snowy! And we are not alone in that. Take a look at the temperature "departure from average" map for the country through December 15:1sthalf Officially at the Youngstown-Warren airport, there has been a foot of snow so far this month. How does this compare to past early Decembers? Well 2010 blows everything away, but this has been the 10th snowiest open to December since 1930:decsnow Saturday's storm behave pretty much as expected. The "mild" air got a bit farther north than originally expected, leading to some light rain/drizzle late in the day in many places. Snowfall totals ranged from an inch or two in southern Columbiana County to 4-5" or so in much of Mahoning, Trumbull and Mercer counties. Current snow cover map shows the lower snow totals in southeastern Columbiana County:coverHow about this week? Well, 2 separate "clipper" systems will track our way tonight and Tuesday...each bringing a fluffy inch or two to the Valley. Here's the simulated radar at midnight tonight:midnightradar After a lull Tuesday morning, the second system will move through in the afternoon. Here's what the radar should look like at 1:00pm:1pmradar Watch for slick spots early Tuesday morning and again at the end of the afternoon.It looks like it will warm up and rain at the end of this week. This will do a number on our snow pack. Check out the expected change from Tuesday evening to Saturday morning:DEPTHCHANGESo, is the possibility of s White Christmas in jeopardy? I would say so. It does not (at this point) look like there will be much new snow early next week. It's far enough out that much can change, so stay tuned. The GFS and European computer models have a tranquil looking Christmas morning overall (although the GFS does have some snow showers/flurries):gfsxmaseuroxmassfcA guess on high temperatures on Christmas Day: Somewhere in the lower to middle 30s. Stay tuned as I am sure there will be adjustments to that forecast! Thanks for reading,Eric  

An Update on Saturday's Snow

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First, a quick recap of the COLD. At 7:45 this morning, the average temperature across Ohio was a bone-chilling 9.9 degrees:rtma_tmp2m_midatlusA few of the coldest nooks in north-central Ohio dropped a bit below zero, while most backyards in the Mahoning and Shenango valleys were between 6-10 at the start of the day. There is a TON of cold air over the continent right now:namtemps This type of cold this early in the season does not happen often....in fact, just a handful of times in the last 30 years in Youngstown:colddays Ok, on to the weekend snow. Not much has changed in the thinking since yesterday. Snow will break out a few hours before daybreak on Saturday and it will basically snow all day. Here is an animation showing the snow piling up from 1am Saturday to 1pm Sunday (click to animate):output_jdmoy7That's the European model, and it has similar ideas to other models. Look closely and you can see it gives most of the area 4-5 inches of snow.The SREF model, which is an "ensemble" model, has a range of solutions from about 2 inches to a little over 7 inches. The mean or average (black line) is a bit over 4 inches. (An ensemble model is a model that is run several times, each time with slightly different initial conditions. Each run is represented by a line on the graph.)sref So, we have out a forecast of 3-5 inches for late Friday night and Saturday. Small additional accumulations are possible Sunday, mainly in the most lake-effect prone areas north of I-80. Malls will be packed Saturday; if you plan on being out, take it slow and plan on longer-than-average travel times!Thanks for reading...Eric  

Bitter Cold, Then More Snow!

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While parts of the Valley will get a coating to 1/2" worth of snow this afternoon and evening, the big story in the near term is the cold! Temperatures will drop below 10 in many spots tonight, then readings will stay in the teens Thursday.How unusual is it to have a high of 17 degrees (our forecast) or colder this early in the season? Quite! It's only happened 11 times in Youngstown since 1930 and the most recent early-season cold snap of this magnitude occurred in 1995 (we had 2 such days early in December that year).17daysYou may be wondering what the record for "coldest high temperature" for tomorrow is. It is 10 degrees, set in 1962. Here's a chart showing the "coldest high temperature" for each day of the year in Youngstown:minmaxes It's been so cold lately that ice has started to form on the western (shallow) end of Lake Erie. It's pretty early in the season for that.iceAir masses have no trouble staying cold right now as they push out of Canada, because there is a deep snowpack over much of the U.S. This helps keep the air "refrigerated"; air masses that would normally modify coming south and east do not have much of a chance to do so. Current snow depth:depth Ok, what about the weekend snow? Well by Saturday morning, low pressure will be pushing into the lower Ohio Valley:satamsurfaceSnow will break out before sunrise and will continue much of the day. At  this point, it seems likely that precipitation will remain all snow; mixing with sleet could occur closer to I-70. How much? Looks like enough to shovel and plow...at least a few inches.The European model, which is often one of the more accurate computer models we use, has a general 3-5" snowfall:eurosnow These amounts seem reasonable. We will be updating the forecast frequently over the next few days! -Eric  

Midday Thursday Snowstorm Update

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Overall, my thinking has not changed much on how this storm will evolve since yesterday. A changeover from rain to mixed precipitation to a little snow will occur tonight, but snow accumulations by daybreak will be pretty minor (coating to perhaps an inch). NAM Model snow accumulation by 7:00am:7asnowNot much will happen tomorrow morning. Snow will pick back up around midday/early afternoon and the worst part of the storm will be from mid-afternoon to very early evening. Snow accumulations will be in the 3-6 inch range, with many area north of I-80 closer to 3" and areas near Rt. 30 closer to 6".Latest NAM Model storm total accumulation map is fairly close to my ideas (probably somewhat too high on southern fringes):total Thanks as always for reading!Eric

Update on Late-Week Snow

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A very complicated storm will evolve across the eastern 2/3 of the country over the next couple of days and it will have a big impact on northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania.Here is the official WFMJ snow map, hot off the presses:forecastMost of this will fall during the afternoon Friday and early Friday evening. Snow will taper off and end later Friday night. In many places, this storm will NOT be as big of a snow producer as last week's....although in the northern part of the area (which did not get hot as hard last week) it will be comparable.One bit of "good" news: A fairly high percentage of this snow will fall when temperatures are near freezing.....during the day. That will make it easier for road crews to keep up, especially on the main roads. This storm will bring hefty amounts of ice to parts of the southern Plains and the Mississippi Valleys, as shown in the orange-colors on the midday Friday map:gfsfriDuring Thursday night around the Youngstown area, we will probably see a transition from rain to a mix of sleet and rain to a mix of snow and sleet to finally ALL snow. The mix may last a little longer toward the Rt. 30 corridor.A quick note about the cold next week: it is VERY unusual to see this kind of cold this early in the season. Here's a chart showing the number of days Youngstown has had a HIGH temperature at or below 20 degrees in early December since 1930. Has not happened often and the last time it occurred was in 1995.numberofdays

More Snow For the End of This Week

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The region got a healthy dumping of snow right before Thanksgiving, but much of that has melted in recent days (and what's left will be gone by Thursday). Here's the current snow depth (and this may be overestimating how much is actually left):depthBitterly cold air is reloading across Canada. Take a look at the temperatures at 9am Eastern this morning:currentThe leading edge of the cold is pushing into North Dakota and Montana, and it's all coming south and east in the next several days.Ahead of the cold....MILD air! Enjoy the 50s Wednesday and Thursday. It map be the last time we see those temperatures for quite some time.By Thursday night and Friday, moisture will line up along and behind the leading edge of the cold, and the result will be a variety of precipitation across the eastern half of the country...including an ugly ice storm in the Southern Plains:gfsfridayamAcross northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania, precipitation is likely to be (mostly) snow and may come in TWO waves. The first Thursday night and the second late Friday/Friday night. The first wave may feature a transition from rain to snow, while it should just be all snow late Friday/Friday night.How much? Here's a comparison of the European model (top) and the GFS model (bottom). They have a similar idea; heaviest snow in western/central Ohio, with lighter amounts north and east. gfseuroBased on this and other data, I am ready to put out a "first call" forecast of 2-4" for the WFMJ viewing area from Thursday night to Friday night. We will be adjusting this forecast as need be over the next couple of days.

November Review, December Preview!

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November 2013 is in the books, so let's review the month. The first half of the month had its' ups and downs, then...BIG PATTERN CHANGE! The second half of November was quite cold. Here's what happened each day:nov The stretch from November 20-30 was tied for the second coldest final 10 days of November on record in Youngstown:nov2030 What about November as a whole? It was quite a bit colder than average, but not in the Top 10 coldest since 1930. Here's how it compares to years past:novtempsThanks to the big storm last week, November 2013 will go down as a VERY snowy November. In fact, it's the FOURTH SNOWIEST since 1930:snowWhat about December??Well the first work week of the month will be quite a bit warmer than the end of November. Here's the temperature anomaly map for this week:days1-5 We will be a few degrees above average overall this week, which corresponds to highs in the 40s. We may even crack 50 once or twice before the week is out, Our snowpack is going to fade quickly. We will also be dealing with some raindrops on occasion.The middle of the month is likely to be closer to average overall. Some computer models suggest a warm Christmas week, but this far out.....we will take it with a big grain of salt.Finally, did you know we actually reach our EARLIEST sunset of the year tomorrow?? We do, and it stays at 4:54 for 11 days.....while the sunrise continues getting later.sunrisesunsetHave a good rest of the weekend!-Eric