We have a very cold forecast for the first week of March and accumulating snow on the way Sunday. Most are ready for winter to be over….well in one sense it’s about to be over! February 28 marks the end of “meteorological” winter. LET’S TALK SPRING!
But first, let’s talk winter. Are these seasonal forecasts any good?? Well, yes yes they are. Most of the time.
NOT THIS YEAR.
This was our winter temperature forecast:
Here’s what happened:
Well, at least I wasn’t alone. Every single winter forecast I saw busted. How did we all do so badly?? I won’t get too far into the weeds but basically the ocean/atmosphere relationship in the western Pacific and even the Indian Ocean did not go as planned. This caused a chain reaction which resulted in the positions of ridges and troughs over and around North America to be in the wrong places. The result: Everything was off by half a continent.
The winter numbers (snow total is of course not final):
It has been wet and rather gloomy but not that snowy at all. We are running well behind average and behind last year’s tally:
Spring is of course a transitional season. Average rise quickly over the next few months as the sun gets stronger and higher in the sky.
What most want: A BETTER SPRING THAN LAST YEAR! We will get that?
Spring 2018 started very, VERY slowly with wet, chilly and even snowy conditions in March and April:
Then May was more like summer. Overall it was the 2nd consecutive pretty wet spring season.
This year: Well March is going to start very very cold. While the rest of the month looks “less cold” it also doesn’t look all that balmy compared to average.
I do expect better things out of April and May. April in particular should be quite a bit warmer than last year, allowing for some “true” spring weather rather than “extended winter and then suddenly summer” like last year. Overall the 3 month period should end up warmer than average.
It does not look like a dry spring but also likely not as wet as the last couple of years.