After a record-breaking February, boy have we seen a pattern reversal in the month of March. The month is halfway over so I thought I would take a moment to examine the numbers and talk about the upcoming weather pattern.
The first half of March has been cold, but record cold? Not even close. In fact, it’s been pretty “ordinary”…colder than average, yes but nowhere near the top of the list of coldest starts to March.
What HAS been unusual is the amount of snow. The first half of the month featured the 2nd highest amount of snow on record for March 1-15.
In fact, the first half of March has been snowier than JANUARY AND FEBRUARY COMBINED. Wow!
How unusual is such a dramatic pattern flip from February to March? I looked back at the top 20 warmest Februarys on record in Youngstown (excluding #1, 2017) and only 5 times (25%) was the very warm February followed by a cold March. Most recently in 1999 and 2001. So, it’s unusual but certainly not unheard of.
Astronomical Spring begins on Monday (at 6:29am to be exact).
So are there any signs of the pattern flipping to warmth like we had at the end of February??
It seems unlikely through the end of March. The European model keeps the cool shots coming with a northwest flow:
The US Climate Model has a cool look as well.
Keep in mind, averages are rising FAST at this time of the year. Our average high hits 50 in 9 days. So a “cool” day in late March is in the 40s.
I DO think that we are done with the kind of severe cold we have had this week. It gets very hard to sustain this kind of cold as we get into late March. The sun is as strong now as it is in late September.