As meteorological winter draws to a close and meteorological spring revs up this week, it promises to be a bit of a bumpy transition. Let’s break things down day by day.
A milder day today but not as sunny as yesterday turned out to be. There can be a touch of rain this afternoon in some spots…may not amount to much more than sprinkles. Hi-res futurecast:
High temperatures today will be several degrees above average (which is near 40).
A warm front will lift northward across the region Tuesday, resulting in a balmy day but with the threat of spotty showers. This is another April/May-like system and so not only will temperatures be more like that time of the year but a severe weather threat exists to our south and west Tuesday into Tuesday night. While a rumble of thunder is possible here, we are not looking for string storms just yet. Highs locally in the upper 50s Tuesday as February ends.
The system will push east on Wednesday and will drag a cold front into the region. The air ahead of the front will be moist and unstable (especially for March 1) so we expect showers and thunderstorms to get going. A squall line of storms will be possible, especially before 2pm. NAM model depiction:
The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a low risk for severe weather. Guess I would not be surprised to see the “Slight: risk area (yellow) get pulled a but farther north in western PA.
By far and away the #1 risk with any storms will be wind. Even outside of thunderstorms, Wednesday and Wednesday night will be quite windy with some gusts to 40-45 mph possible. Rain totals over the next few days of up to 1 inch will be possible (but locally higher amounts can occur in storms).
By Wednesday night the colder air will be pushing in and we can see some snowflakes.
THURSDAY NIGHT: SNEAKY CLIPPER?
The models are trying to latch onto a weak low pressure system (a “clipper”) that will cross the region late Thursday and Thursday night. This may bring little or no snow to the region or if the track is right, a couple of inches. We don’t know yet and will firm up this forecast in the next couple of days.
Ups and downs but there will be some shots of cold during the first half of March. More than we had in February!