Wednesday (1/4) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Our cold front rolled though overnight and temperatures will keep gliding backward today. Arctic air is spilling east.

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Wind chills will get pretty nasty today; by mid-afternoon they will be mostly in the lower teens.

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Lake-effect snow will set up east of Cleveland today into tonight but the wind direction will not be favorable for many of the bands to work their way south. Still, a small accumulation will be possible from Mespo to Greenville…but no farther south.

THURSDAY’S “SNEAKY” SNOW

A system will spread light snows into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. The “bullseye” of a few inches or so is likely to be southern Ohio into eastern Kentucky and West Virginia, as shown on this map (showing odds of 1″ or more):

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BUT I am concerned that some light snow will creep farther north and give the WFMJ viewing area a small accumulation in the afternoon and evening hours. The NAM Model depicts this:

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Often you hear us talk about a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio (so 10″ snow=1″ of rain). That’s a decent rule of thumb but reality is often different. In this arctic air mass the ratios will be more like 20:1 or even 25:1, meaning that it’s “easier” to get accumulating snow even when there isn’t much moisture to squeeze out of the atmosphere.

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So, I am concerned about an inch or so of snow causing slick travel for the evening rush tomorrow. the short range ensemble (SREF for short) model suggests a couple of inches is possible. The average of all 21 flavors of the model is about 2.8″.

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So, stay tuned on this one. Often it’s these kind of events that lead to the most travel issues.

COLD BUT QUIET

The Friday-Sunday time frame will be frigid with highs near 20 but generally quiet otherwise. Saturday will be a problem for parts of the Southeast but that storm is a miss for us.

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We could see flurries and snow showers Sunday. Quite windy and cold!

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LONG RANGE: BLOW TORCH!

As I have been talking about all week, the rest of January looks quite mild. The turnaround starts next week:

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The 10-20 period is a full-on blowtorch.

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Our winter forecast’s top “analog” year was 2005-2006. What happened in January 2006? TORCH!

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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