Weather For Weather Geeks January 31

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Wednesday (Jan 25) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

We’ll finally see an interval of sunshine this morning as this area of clearing works in from the west:

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That’s the good news. The bad news is that this sunny break will be followed by some rain for this afternoon. Current radar shows it in western Ohio and Indiana: nowrad

We should see some raindrops by 2pm on average. Simulated radar(s):

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Temperatures will climb into the upper 40s today; our last balmy day for a while.

WINTER RETURNS

A much different day tomorrow with gusty winds, steady temperatures in the 30s and frequent snow showers. The snow could come down rather heavily at times , actually.

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BUT, it will have a hard time sticking on paved surfaces. Air temperatures will be above freezing and road temperatures will still be warm. Current road temperatures:

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So, while your grass may get covered and you may have to brush off your car, I am not expecting the snow to be a high-impact thing tomorrow during the day. At night, as temepratures drop below freezing, the snow be a little more impactful. Watch for slick spots Friday morning.

Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be pretty similar with occasional flurries/snow showers and cold, gusty winds. fridayyyyyy sattttt sundayyyyy

Cumulatively, a few/several inches of snow may accumulate in our northern viewing area by the end of the weekend.

Wind chills Friday-Monday will be largely in the teens and 20s.

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The cold, while not extreme at all (and pretty lame by late January/early February standards) will hang around for a while.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Tuesday (1/24) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING….

A cold rain to start our Tuesday in many places and a few wet snowflakes have tried to mix in as well. Radar as of 8:30 or so:

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Temperatures will struggle today yet it will still be ABOVE average with highs in the upper 30s to about 40. 15 hour futurecast shows a drying trend by midday but I suspect spotty light rain/drizzle will return by this evening.

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The mild air will return for a one-day encore performance Wednesday with highs eclipsing the 50 degree mark:

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Spotty rain showers will be around in the afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front.

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WINTER!

Winter’s return starts Thursday. It’s not going to be the kind of pattern that produces uber cold by any stretch but it will finally feel like “normal” for a while. Snow showers and gusty winds Thursday; might be some small accumulations on non-paved surfaces but roads will be wet with temperatures in the mid 30s and a warm ground.

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Friday through the weekend will be colder than Thursday with gusty winds and occasional snow showers and flurries. The “nickel and dime” effect may lead to a total accumulation of a few inches, mainly north of I-80 by the end of the weekend.

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Wind chills will be mainly in the teens each afternoon.

LONG RANGE

No signs of harsh arctic cold in the longer range. The jet stream by the weekend and early next week has a cold look to it with a “cross polar flow” setting up.

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BUT the source region of our air mass won’t be crazy cold so this is not the kind of thing that will lead to way below-average temperatures for us. Pretty “standard” winter cold.

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FEBRUARY THOUGHTS

We are a week away from the end of the month and it’s time to get serious about the February forecast. The models continue to show the core of the cold staying out west in February. I suspect February will be colder than January but perhaps still warmer-than-average by some degree. More chances for snow compared to January but lots of “slop” storms too (storms that bring mixed precip).

We’ll put out an “official” forecast late this week or early next week.

 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

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Monday (January 23) Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Hope your weekend was a good one. Some significant changes to the weather pattern this week although we are certainly not headed into the Deep Freeze anytime soon.

If January ended today, this month would not quite crack the top 10 warmest on record in Youngstown:

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The storm that devastated parts of the Deep South over the weekend is still meandering through the Southeast this morning. A very strong low pressure system for it not being tropical in nature.

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Thankfully severe weather will not continue today. Here at home that storm will throw moisture our way and we can expect periods of rain today. Hi-res futurecast:

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Most have picked up a tenth to two-tenths of an inch so far and we can expect around another 0.75″ on average.

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Temperatures are going nowhere today, holding about steady and then gently falling. Readings will end up a handful of degrees colder than they are now by the end of the afternoon.

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By tomorrow morning the air column will have cooled enough that there might be a few wet snowflakes seen in our viewing area, especially toward I-79 in PA. No accumulation is expected.

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BUT if you are traveling farther east than that, snow WILL accumulate in the higher terrain of central and northern Pennsylvania. I-80 will be tough sledding all the way across.

 

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 REST OF WEEK

A brief warm up Wednesday with temperatures returning to the balmy 50s….a couple of rain showers will be around ahead of the next front.

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Behind the front, WINTER! What a concept. Not super cold or anything but finally back to average. Snow showers and gusty winds Thursday and Friday. Some local accumulations of snow will be possible, mainly north of I-80. It is not likely to be much.

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LONG RANGE

Pretty “average” mid winter weather is likely for a while.

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The modeling is shifting toward a warmer February. We may end up with another warmer-than-average month, sealing Winter 2016-2017 as a mild one. Notice the trend toward warmth over the last several runs:

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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GOOD MORNING!

We had a little more damp weather overnight and a touch of drizzle can still be found this morning. Over the next 24 hours, the radar can be a bit “deceiving” as it will look quiet even though drizzle could be falling out of a low deck of clouds. Notice this morning: no green on the radar but observations of drizzle are common (green boxes):

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Temperatures are in the upper 30s and they will stay there all day. A real “flat line” temperature trace today.

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Although not much drizzle will fall this afternoon, the data suggests that light rain/drizzle will probably return this evening. Notice the fairly deep layer of saturated air in the low levels of the atmosphere:

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Might have to watch for patchy fog tonight as well.

Thursday will be a nicer day….after a cloudy start we expect some midday and afternoon sunshine with highs in the upper 40s.

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A period of rain is likely on Friday but it will still be quite mild.

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THE WEEKEND

Near-record warmth is on the way for Saturday. The record high of 59 may be broken. We look to stay dry as well! Enjoy!

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On Sunday, that old boundary will come back north and this will lead to a good chance for afternoon and nighttime showers.

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LONG RANGE

The pattern will certainly shift toward more “average” mid-winter weather toward the end of next week and the end of the month. Does not look super cold but just back to what you expect at this time of the year.

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In case you missed this yesterday….winters are not getting “less snowy”, in fact just the opposite! This surprises many people who think the winters of the 70s and 80s were much snowier.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpg

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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CONNECT: 

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