Wednesday (11/16) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

LOTS to talk about again today. Let’s get to it. Remember you will get another very detailed update this evening on Weather For Weather Geeks.

Today won’t be quite as nice as the last couple of days, but hey it’s still warmer than average! There were a couple of showers/sprinkles early today but those are pulling east. Clouds will occasionally part for some sunshine today.

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Thursday will probably start with a deck of low clouds and/or fog but the afternoon will be sensational with sunshine and temperatures in the lower 60s.

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Friday: Amazing. The record is 72, set in 1958 and we may come within a couple of degrees of that. The afternoon will also be breezy to at times windy.

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NOW THE EXCITING STUFF

Ok, the weekend. What a wild ride this will be. Our cold front will cross the Valley by midday Saturday and temperatures will start to fall off a cliff. Rain showers will be around for a while but I think it is cold enough for a changeover to snow showers by late afternoon or early evening.

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Strong winds and lake-effect/lake-enhanced snow showers will continue Saturday night into Sunday. There will be extreme instability over the lakes with the cold air blowing over the warm waters.

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Sunday: A nasty day with wind chills in lower 20s. 

IMPACTS

It is too early for an accumulation forecast. Let’s focus on the likely IMPACTS instead of numbers at this stage of the game.

1) Harsh wind and cold. Just like if it were January, use common sense; don’t keep the pets out too long, etc.

2) Travel. Despite the ground being very warm, the snow can and WILL stick, especially in heavy squalls.

The snow will have no trouble sticking to the grass/roofs, decks, etc. During the daylight hours, it will have to be coming down HARD to stick to the roads. But at night, even more benign snow showers can stick to the pavement. Even in snow showers that do not cause much accumulation on the roads, the visibility can suddenly drop so take it slow.

3) School. I doubt there will be any school adjustments Monday but it’s early in the game so stay tuned.

A general guideline of what to expect:

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NEXT WEEK

Think there will be another system heading our way around Thanksgiving time but I suspect it will only bring some chilly rain. Not expecting wintry weather for holiday travel.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:

https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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