Wednesday (11/30) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

We had another round of rain overnight and early  this morning with modest totals once again:

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The big picture shows the steady rain pushing east. Severe weather continues in parts of the Deep South this morning:

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I think we will see spotty showers for the rest of the daylight hours today; much of the time will be rain-free. Rain chances go up again this evening along the cold front. Simulated radar:

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It is fitting that a mild November will end on a balmy note today with highs near 60. We certainly were not alone in the “warm November” club:

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Behind the front, December will start as Decembers often do in our part of the country: CLOUDY. This is our cloudiest time of the year. There may be a stray flurry or sprinkle Thursday. Temperatures will hold in the lower 40s with wind chills near freezing.

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Friday will be similar with perhaps a better chance for flurries.

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The flow will be somewhat favorable for a few lake-effect bands to get going, and this will be mainly an issue for NW PA.

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THE WEEKEND

Saturday looks…surprise! Cloudy, brisk and cold. There can still be random flurries around.

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Sunday may start with some sunshine but clouds will increase again. There is a chance for light precipitation, perhaps a rain/snow mix, toward the end of the day and into Sunday night.

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NEXT WEEK

A wild week. Temperatures will warm early in the week but a true arctic air mass will slide across the country by midweek. This much colder air should arrive here by the end of next week. The clash of the air masses may spin up a good snow storm for the Midwest. This is 8 days away, but here’s one idea of what next Thursday’s air mass may look like:

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Behind that front, the coldest air of the season is very likely.

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December forecast calls for an “average” month which is actually quite a change compared to last December and most of 2016!

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:

https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Tuesday (11/29) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Last night’s rain has come and gone and the radar is quiet this morning. It will stay that way all day.

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Rain totals were pretty modest last night, generally under a quarter of an inch.

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With a mix of sunshine and clouds, we expect a nice day today. Temperatures will be dependent on how much sunshine there is. Enough sun and it can get into the low 60s in spots.

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Round #2 of rain is on the way for late tonight and tomorrow morning. Wet at the bus stop Wednesday:

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By the afternoon the rain should be much more “hit or miss” but the threat of at least a spotty shower will remain in the forecast.

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DECEMBER STARTS WITH COOL DOWN

Cloudy and uneventful weather can be expected for the first day of the new month. It will be blustery and colder with temperatures holding about steady in the lower 40s.

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A weak disturbance could bring very spotty rain or wet snow showers Friday. Highs near 40.

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The weekend looks similar.

LONG RANGE

Notice the cold air shown on the model for the end of next week into next weekend.

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A true arctic air mass will invade the US for the first time this season next week (purple color). It will arrive in the Northwest and then ooze east. Looks like a cold few days for us but nothing earth-shattering for December.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:

https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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Monday (11/28) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING AND HAPPY MONDAY

A cold and frosty start this morning as the sky was clear for a large part of the night. Now clouds have rolled in. A more comfortable day today despite the clouds. A breezy afternoon on the way with highs in the lower 50s.

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Notice the rain off to our west this morning:

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Looks ominous but it’s fighting dry air across the region. Check out the low dewpoints:

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As the rain pushed north and east I expect most of it to get eaten up by the dry air. A sprinkle or light shower will be possible this afternoon but the more significant rain is much more likely after 7-8pm. Hi-res futurecast:

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The rain is great news for the drought-stricken Southeast. What they don’t want is the severe weather but that will be a threat later today in the lower Mississippi Valley:

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We’ll have a soggy night tonight but tomorrow…WOW will it turn nice! We’ll flirt with the record high of 66, set in 2005.

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REST OF THE WEEK: BACK TO REALITY

Rain is likely to return Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front.

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Rain totals with the 2 rounds of rain: likely to be 0.75″-1.00″.

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Thursday and Friday will be colder and more seasonable as we welcome in December. Plenty of clouds and a rain/snow shower around. thurs

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LONG RANGE

December may start seasonable but a colder air mass seems likely to invade during the 2nd week of the month.

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The trend on the colimate models has been colder for December when compared to what they were advertising previously. I suspect we will end up with a near-average December…perhaps slightly colder than average. Model trend:

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WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:

https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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Tuesday (11/22) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING…..

After a blustery and cold Monday, today will be a better day with more sunshine and less wind. Temperatures will still struggle. The farther north and east you go, the more clouds you will find today. The yellow color on this map shows a deck of low stratocumulus clouds:

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Highs today will be 8-10 degrees below average.

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Want snow? Head to New York. Downwind of Lake Ontario, between 3 and 4 feet of snow is on the ground in some places.

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THANKSGIVING WEATHER

The busy day before Thanksgiving will feature increasing clouds. Rain may push in by around sunset but it’s more likely after 7pm. At the onset of the precipitation there may be wet snowflakes or sleet pellets mixed in.

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On the holiday, a fizzling low pressure system will meander through and there will be a deck of low clouds around all day. Out of these clouds there can be a touch of light rain or drizzle at times. Afternoon tempoeratures in the 40s.

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Friday will not be any nicer looking and once again there can be a little rain in the area.

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That low will intensify along the East Coast Saturday and the Valley will get into a chilly northwest flow. At this time of the year that typically means clouds and Saturday will be no exception. The chance for showers will continue.

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Sunday looks dry and sunnier for those traveling at the end of the holiday weekend.

LONG RANGE

Looks unsettled next week but it should be warm enough for windy rain events.

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We’ll have the December forecast next week. Latest model trends suggest a stormy month with frequent precipitation. While there will certainly be some cold days, the month should not be far below (or above) average. Much colder than last year!

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Red Line: Main Storm Track
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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:

https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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Monday (11/21) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

The weekend has come and gone and the unseasonable warmth is LONG gone. What a change. The snow forecast that we issued on Thursday worked out pretty well.

Forecast:

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Current snow depth (approximate):

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Note: The color scale is different on each graphic. Light blue on forecast graphic=1-3″. On snow depth graphic is means 2-6″. 

The weather map this morning sure looks like winter. Cold temperatures and a frigid wind.

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Notice the isobar packing. It’s windy. 

Temperatures will only move a few degrees today. A stray flurry; otherwise, cloudy, blustery and cold.

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THANKSGIVING WEATHER

A calm day Tuesday with clouds breaking for some sun. Still chilly with highs near 40 but not as windy.

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Wednesday is tradionally one of the busiest travel days of the year. Locally, we expect some rain to push in by the end of the day. While there is an outside chance for mixed precipitation at the onset, I am not expecting travel problems across our region (other than wet pavement).

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On Thanksgiving Day, expect a cloudy and chilly day and there might be a rain shower. Temperatures in the 40s.

 

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Shopping Thursday night into Friday? Looks quiet weatherwise with dry, cool donditions Friday morning and maybe some rain showers by afternoon.

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Another busy day on the roads and at airports Sunday. Looks quiet weatherwise.

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LONG RANGE

Late November and early December looks seasonably chilly and I think it will be an active weather pattern. Does that mean lots of snow? Only if the temperatures are right. Could mean plenty of chilly rains. We shall see.

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WINTER FORECAST

My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:

https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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CONNECT: 

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