Monday (9/26) Morning Weather Briefing

MORNING!

What a weekend! A real treat after a long, hot summer and first few weeks of September. While this week will be unsettled at times, it will be comfortable overall. Let’s get to the details.

Today started fine but a wall of rain is heading our way this afternoon. This is with the cold front that will usher in the next round of cool air. Radar just before 9:00:

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Hi-res futurecast shows rain is most likely between 1:30pm-3:30pm:

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There is a chance for thunder with this. The chance of a heavy, gusty thunderstorm is highest to our southeast, where there is a “Marginal” risk for severe weather.

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Rainfall totals today should average about 0.25″.

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There is a distinct air mass change behind this front, check out the temperatures in the Plains this morning:

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BEST DAY OF WEEK: TUESDAY

We’ll be behind the front Tuesday and the dreaded “upper low” that I will talk about in a moment will not have arrived yet. So a nice one with very comfortable temperatures; highs in upper 60s.

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 UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM HELL

There is an old saying “upper level low=weatherperson’s woe”. There is a reason for that: upper-level lows are a pain. They tend to “be their own boss”, just meandering and making for difficult forecasts. Well this week one of these buggers is going to detach from the jet stream and meander around the region for 4-6 days.

What’s that mean for our weather? Well we have to allow for at least the chance for showers every day from Wednesday through the weekend. It will also serve to keep temperatures rather cool.

Wednesday is “arrival day” for this thing and our first chance for showers.

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Thursday’s upper-level map shows our bowling ball just sort of parked over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

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By Sunday it will not have moved all that much.

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Bottom line: If you have outdoor plans Thursday through the weekend, be ready for at least SPOTTY showers. We’ll gain more confidence with respect to what days may be wetter than others as we get into midweek.

This will be our coolest stretch of the season so far. Still looks warm for at least a few days next week.

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