It’s not exactly going out on a limb but I will offer this prediction: today will be the “steamiest” day until next summer. We may see temperatures in the mid 80s a couple of more times, but with this kind of humidity? Unlikely.
Heat and humidity will help to fuel some showers and thunderstorms later today. The radar is quiet locally this morning but as you can see there is plenty of action to our west.
A look at our hi-resolution modeling shows an increasing threat for storms starting around mid-afternoon.
The chance for a shower and thunderstorm will continue through the evening. Let’s talk about the threats today. I think there are 2 main ones: isolated damaging wind gusts and tropical downpours. I issued this graphic last night and I think it’s still valid, although I may set the end time at 9-10pm instead of 8pm.
The Storm Prediction Center has kept the region in the “marginal” or “low” risk for SEVERE weather. Remember storms can cause problems even when they don’t technically meet the criteria for a “severe” storm.
There is a ton of moisture available to be “wrung out”, especially by September standards. One way to visualize this is by looking at the “precipitable water” in the column of air above our heads. Where you see the orange-red colors the “PWAT” is around 2″ or so.
Notice the much drier air north of the cold front. A little of that will filter in tomorrow, meaning the afternoon will be less humid. Should be a quiet, pleasant evening for high school football.
Showers can return Friday night and Saturday looks unsettled at times. The next cold front is a strong one with a big air mass change coming behind it. Ahead of it, we expect a warm, humid Saturday. A lot of the time will be dry but be on guard for a shower or storm at any point. The most organized thunderstorm activity is likely to be toward evening.
MUCH less humid with sunshine. Great sleeping weather. Enjoy!
The next front will arrive around midweek. A brief warm up ahead of it Tuesday; it can get into the mid 80s. Only chance for rain next week is Tuesday night/Wednesday with the front. Behind it, pleasant, seasonable September weather looks likely.
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