Weather For Weather Geeks September 29

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Thursday (9/29) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING TO YA,

Well we need the rain. As expected, a couple of unsettled days on the way for eastern Ohio and western PA. Rainfall totals of 0.25″-0.50″ have been fairly common over the last 24 hours:

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Early this morning the radar showed spotty showers but a lack of “steady” rain (unlike in central and eastern PA):

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I think that’s the way it will go for much of the morning and afternoon: hit/miss showers but plenty of dry intervals. Rain chances will increase toward dinnertime, as shown by our high-resolution short-term modeling:

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Even the high-res models are going to struggle with the placement of the bands of rain over the next couple of days. We have to avoid taking them verbatim and instead paying attention to the general nature of what it is depicting. And that means a higher chance for widespread rain by this evening.

Temperatures will struggle today, staying in the 60s s all day.

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A fairly similar day Friday, plenty of dry intervals but a good chance for passing rain/showers. Plan on grabbing the poncho for high school football.

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The NWS forecast of an average of 1.5″ of rain seems reasonable. Some will get quite a bit less, some could get a little more. A good drink of water.

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WEEKEND IMPROVEMENT

The improvement will be slow but it will come. Saturday can still bring spotty showers but also some intervals of sunshine. I think Sunday is largely dry and pleasant as the cut-off low finally starts to move out of the region.

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LONG RANGE

Still on track for a period of well above-average temperatures next week.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Wednesday (9/28) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

You may have noticed our forecast for today undergoing some changes last evening and those changes look like the right moves. The upper low that is set to impact the area is tracking a bit farther west than it looked previously and that will have a big impact on our weather today. While central and western Ohio will have a rainy Wednesday, we are far enough east that we are not looking at MUCH rain.

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15 hour hi-res futurecast:

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There can be a shower in spots from mid-afternoon on and a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, but many will stay dry during the daylight hours. This will also have an impact on temperatures. Instead of staying in the 60s, we’ll enjoy readings in the lower 70s this afternoon.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY STILL LOOK WET

The cutoff upper low is still expected to bring showery rains to the region Thursday, Thursday night and Friday. It won’t rain the entire time. The wettest period may be Thursday night. The NWS “Excessive Rainfall” outlooks show small chances for localized flooding:

 

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As you can see, the risk of flooding is quite a bit higher to our southeast. Here’s a look at the NWS rainfall forecast through Friday. These numbers seem reasonable to me. An average of 1″-1.75″ seems likely locally.

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The Washington/Baltimore region is in for a long few days with widespread flooding a concern.

THE WEEKEND

By the weekend, the low pressure system will be weakening and starting to slowly pull north. This should result in more sunshine and fewer showers…..although there can still be a couple around, especially Saturday.

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NEXT WEEK: WARM

We are still on track to see a few balmy October days next week with high temperatures between 74-78 during midweek.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

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Tuesday (9/27) Morning Weather Briefing

GOOD MORNING!

Today is a winner and easily the nicest day of the week. We’ll have sunshine in abundance with temperatures a couple of degrees above average. There will be a noticeable breeze as well. Highs:

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A true autumnal air mass. Look how dry the air is….dewpoints in the 30s and 40s. You don’t see that in August!

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HERE COMES THE UPPER LOW

From time to time an area of low pressure aloft “detaches” from the jet stream and “does it’s own thing”. We call these “cut off” upper-level lows. Well one of those is going to call Ohio and western PA home from tomorrow through at least the start of the weekend.

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This means that our weather will be unsettled at times. Showers will visit on a few occasions Wednesday-Friday. There can be spotty afternoon thunderstorms on Wednesday as well. Cut-off lows are fickle and can do strange things sometimes. We’ll have to watch for “surprise” heavy bands of rain and even weak rotation in any storms. On the flip-side, pockets of dry air rotating around the low can give us extended periods where it is “not bad” out with some sunshine.

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As the weekend arrives, this thing will still be in our hair so we have to allow for at least spotty showers Saturday. Sunday is the day it should start to move and there should not be much more than stray showers.

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LONG RANGE

Next week looks warm for early October for everyone east of the Rockies.

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I expect at least a couple or few days with highs 10 degrees above average.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

Looking to start a new streak today.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

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Monday (9/26) Morning Weather Briefing

MORNING!

What a weekend! A real treat after a long, hot summer and first few weeks of September. While this week will be unsettled at times, it will be comfortable overall. Let’s get to the details.

Today started fine but a wall of rain is heading our way this afternoon. This is with the cold front that will usher in the next round of cool air. Radar just before 9:00:

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Hi-res futurecast shows rain is most likely between 1:30pm-3:30pm:

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There is a chance for thunder with this. The chance of a heavy, gusty thunderstorm is highest to our southeast, where there is a “Marginal” risk for severe weather.

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Rainfall totals today should average about 0.25″.

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There is a distinct air mass change behind this front, check out the temperatures in the Plains this morning:

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BEST DAY OF WEEK: TUESDAY

We’ll be behind the front Tuesday and the dreaded “upper low” that I will talk about in a moment will not have arrived yet. So a nice one with very comfortable temperatures; highs in upper 60s.

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 UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM HELL

There is an old saying “upper level low=weatherperson’s woe”. There is a reason for that: upper-level lows are a pain. They tend to “be their own boss”, just meandering and making for difficult forecasts. Well this week one of these buggers is going to detach from the jet stream and meander around the region for 4-6 days.

What’s that mean for our weather? Well we have to allow for at least the chance for showers every day from Wednesday through the weekend. It will also serve to keep temperatures rather cool.

Wednesday is “arrival day” for this thing and our first chance for showers.

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Thursday’s upper-level map shows our bowling ball just sort of parked over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

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By Sunday it will not have moved all that much.

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Bottom line: If you have outdoor plans Thursday through the weekend, be ready for at least SPOTTY showers. We’ll gain more confidence with respect to what days may be wetter than others as we get into midweek.

This will be our coolest stretch of the season so far. Still looks warm for at least a few days next week.

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STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

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Friday (9/23) Morning Weather Briefing

HAPPY FRIDAY!

We have another warm one on the way today but some changes are on the horizon. We will remain south of a front today, allowing temperatures to get into the mid 80s this afternoon. It will also be rather muggy. 8am dewpoints:

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Notice the drier air to the north of the front across the Upper Midwest. That is what will head our way for the weekend.

The front itself will come through unannounced tonight. No rain is expected. 7pm temperatures for those heading to a football game:

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High pressure will build in for the weekend. Enjoy some great early Fall weather tomorrow and Sunday with highs in the lower and middle 70s.

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 NEXT WEEK

The models have been having HUGE struggles with next week’s pattern but finally today it looks like we have some agreement. A cold front will march across the Valley late Monday and Monday night, bringing a decent chance for showers.

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Behind the front, an ACTUAL FALL-LIKE DAY for a change on Tuesday with variable cloudiness and a cool breeze. Temperatures are likely to stay in the 60s.

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This will be a shot of “seasonably cool” air for a few days but as we have been saying, October is likely to start quite warm.

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With this kind of pattern early in October, it will be more like early September.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

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 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

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