Blog: Severe Weather Possibilities Today

Good morning!

We are going to just focus on today’s weather in this morning’s post. We have the chance for severe weather this afternoon and early this evening. So let’s walk through the details.

SETUP

Obviously a moist, humid air mass is overhead this morning with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

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A cold front, albeit a very weak one, is slowly pushing east into this juicy air.

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We also have some sunshine this morning, helping to make the air mass warm and a little more unstable. Temperatures should rise into the mid 80s today.

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Additionally, we have a decent wind field in the lower levels of the atmosphere today. Winds 5,000 feet up will be around 40-60 mph this afternoon.

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This is good and bad news. Good because storms that do fire will move along and not just park over one spot. Bad because storms can also “pull down” some of this wind energy in downdrafts and that raises the risk for damaging wind gusts.

So, pretty decent setup. That’s why the Storm Prediction Center has the region in the “Slight” risk for severe weather.

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TIMING/IMPACTS

I think the “window” for strong to severe storms is in the mid and late afternoon hours.

15 hour futurecast showing what the radar, generally, should look like:

 

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Damaging winds will, easily, be the #1 threat. Hail is possible, but severe hail (1″ or larger)? Pretty unlikely.

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Notice the very low tornado threat. Very low but not ZERO. There is a little twisting shown in some of the modeling this afternoon. The SPC has a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any spot.

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STAY WEATHER AWARE

On any day that severe weather threatens, make sure you have at least 2 ways to get warnings. The Storm Tracker 21 app can alert you and you can track storms on the Interactive Radar.

I will stream live on my Facebook Page if the situation warrants.

Keep in mind that, unless a Tornado Warning is issued, we will not cover up Olympics coverage on TV with the map and the crawl (except during breaks). So social media/internet/mobile will be the best way to stay up to date.

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