Some parts of the region did pretty well in the rain department last evening as some heavy storms rolled through between 9pm-12am. Some select rain gauge totals:
Didn’t get a drop or very little last evening? Don’t despair! MANY more chances for wet weather in the coming days.
Dewpoints are in the “foggy windows” zone this morning. Mostly in the lower 70s. Yuck.
The radar just before 9am was pretty quiet locally although it was fairly cloudy.
We expect showers and storms to pop “here and there” this afternoon and early this evening. Classic hit/miss variety stuff. 15 hour futurecast:
Highs will be in the mid 80s today. With only a little sun, the heat index can spike into the 90s.
We expect tomorrow to be pretty similar to today. Friday as well, although I suspect Friday is a little hotter and a little drier than today and Thursday.
WEEKEND WASH OUT?
During the weekend, a cool front will approach and then stall over the region. This can lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. There is enough uncertainty at this stage of the game that I would not call either day a “washout” just yet but if you have outdoor plans, it’s time to think about alternate ideas. Our confidence will grow in the timing and amount of rain in the next 24 hours or so.
HOW MUCH RAIN?
We still have a good chance at putting a dent in the drought in the coming days. We do NOT want flooding problems of course….and that will be a risk through the weekend. Some model information:
European model (ensemble) odds of 2″ or more through Monday night: pretty good odds.
4″? Lower odds but note the “bullseye” over us. We may have the highest odds out of the whole region.
GFS model odds of 2″ or more. Again note the model trying to paint a relative “max” over the region.
Here’s the NOAA guidance…they show 4″ or more. Which I could see, although right now I lean more toward a 3″ or so average. Key word: AVERAGE.
Again, note the corridor of highest totals over our region.
So to sum up:
-Drought-denting rains likely through the weekend and perhaps Monday.
-Local flash flooding can occur in tropical downpours. The atmosphere has a TON of moisture to wring out.
-The weekend may be the wettest period with the highest risk of flooding. Still need to iron out weekend forecast.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
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