WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JULY 29

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WEDNESDAY (7/27) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING…..

Remember yesterday? Nice, warm summer day? Well today is a repeat, just a tad warmer. We remain north of the front that separates very humid air from more tolerable humidity levels. So, while temperatures will reach the upper 80s today, dewpoints will be mainly in the upper 50s to near 60.

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The higher-dewpoint air will begin seeping north Thursday and the end of the week will be muggy. Notice the upward trend on the short-term models over the next few days. Dewpoints:

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Thursday looks rain-free for most of the day with only a small chance for a late-day shower.

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Better chance to see some needed raindrops on Friday. The GFS (shown) is not particularly wet but some of the other modeling has a more active day….and I lean toward that idea.

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WEEKEND OUTLOOK

Once again we have some model arguments but I am confident that neither day is any kind of washout. Just have to allow for spotty shower and thunderstorm activity with a front nearby and some cool air aloft (creating instability). My suspicion is that Saturday is somewhat more active than Sunday.

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LONG RANGE

A warm to hot period seems likely during the middle of next week.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

The streak goes on!

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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TUESDAY (7/26) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

Well it will be a warm Tuesday across the Valley but the air mass is drying out….and the drop in humidity will be most noticeable this afternoon. A front has sagged to our south and we’ll stay in this dry air for a couple of days.

dewpointssfcmaptodayhighs

We look for a good deal of sunshine today. Tomorrow looks warm and dry with sunshine as well. Highs tomorrow in the upper 80s.

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LATE-WEEK FORECAST CHALLENGES

A wave of low pressure will form along that old front and head eastward at the end of the work week. Where this low tracks will determine the coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday. I suspect Thursday is dry, with increasing chances for some showers at night.

thurs

Friday could be an active day but some model solutions keep most of the moisture to our south and east. The GFS is one of those models:

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THE WEEKEND

Can’t guarantee a dry weekend at this point but the rain chances both Saturday and Sunday don’t look that high either. One thing for sure, the coming weekend will NOT be as hot as the one we just had.

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LONG RANGE

Computer models and the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook has some good news: a decent chance at an above-average period in the rain department. Let’s hope that pans out.

6to10day510precip

Temperature trend:

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

The streak goes on!

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

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MONDAY (7/25) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

That was a fast weekend, eh? The weather git (somewhat unexpectedly)  busy Sunday afternoon with a round of heavy thunderstorms during the middle of the afternoon. Scattered wind damage resulted. The good news: some much needed rain for many.

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Over the last week, beneficial rains have fallen, but not everywhere. Northern areas have done better than the southern half of the WFMJ viewing area.

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This morning, it is warm, very muggy and quiet. A weak cool front is just off to our west:

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As that front comes east today we look for very spotty/hit or miss-type showers and storms during the midday and afternoon. The storms will NOT impact as many people as yesterday. 15 hour futurecast:

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The severe weather risk is also lower than yesterday, but not zero. Any storm could get strong and gusty. The Storm Prediction Center has the Valley in the “Marginal” or low risk area today. Higher chances of severe weather to our south and east.

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It will be very warm today, highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Heat Index values can be a few or handful of degrees above the air temperature.

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HUMIDITY RELIEF COMING

The cool front has NO cool air behind it but there is some drier air on the other side of the boundary. So we can expect dewpoints to retreat back into the upper 50s and lower 60s by tomorrow.

dewsDEWSREF

QUIET MIDWEEK

It will be warm, less humid and tranquil during midweek. Tuesday-Thursday looks like a rain-free stretch.

TUEWED

DAMP FRIDAY?

As is often the case in the medium/long range, there are some model differences regarding the next chance for rain Friday. There’s a small chance for a needed “wash out” kind of day, but more likely it will be a “scattered rain” type of day.

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The weekend will NOT be as hot as the one we just had!

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

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THURSDAY (7/21) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

Much like the last couple of days, today will feature plenty of sunshine….the difference is the temperature, which will spike to around 90 this afternoon. It’s the start of our much-anticipated heat wave.

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We will NOT have high humidity today as the real juicy air will remain just off to our west. So while it will be hot, the Heat Index will not be much different than the air temperature.

There are heavy storms across the Upper Midwest this morning:

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Along with a huge area covered by heat warnings and advisories:

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Those storms, along the leading edge of the blast furnace, will weaken today but may re-fire tonight as the warm front pushes east. There is some concern about heavy storms being in the vicinity early Friday morning, as depicted on the NAM model:

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Will that be it for the day? It’s possible, although I would not be surprised to see spotty additional storms firing up in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has the region in the Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow. Severe weather risks include damaging winds and large hail but the overall chances for storms that strong are, well, marginal.

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LET’S TALK HUMIDITY

Friday is going to be very uncomfortable. Dewpoints will peak in the upper 60s to near 70. Unless we have a stormy afternoon, temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90, creating Heat Index values in the mid and upper 90s.

BUT, air subtle push of drier air will occur during the weekend. While the weekend will probably be HOTTER than Friday, it will NOT be as humid. Not that most people will care! It’ll be hot no matter which way you slice it.

Dewpoints:

DEWS.png

The weekend looks dry with only a small chance for a thunderstorm late Sunday. Higher chances Sunday night into Monday with a sluggish cold front.

SATSUNPMMON LONG RANGE

Warm, but not as hot pattern beyond  Monday. Pretty dry next week.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

Our longest streak of the year continues!

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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CONNECT: 

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