BLOG: WEATHER THROUGH JULY 4TH

Good Thursday morning…..

If you paid attention to weather forecasts on Wednesday you noticed that we had to insert the CHANCE for some rain on the 4th of July. Bummer right? Well we also advised our viewers and followers that it was a CHANCE and that checking the forecast often is a good idea as further refinements were a certainty.

So here’s a few thoughts as I look over the newest data this morning.

RAIN CHANCE #1: FRIDAY

A weak cold front will track our way Friday and there can be spotty shower and thunderstorm activity between 11am-5pm. Hopefully your yard gets a good drink. Not everyone’s will.

noonfriday.png

Rain totals will average 0.05-0.15″. Not a lot.

ModelRain.jpg

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: STILL AWESOME

No problems these days. VERY low humidity for this time of the year and a good deal of sunshine. GREAT evenings for fireworks displays and anything else going on outdoors.

MONDAY THE 4TH

Here is where the forecast gets tricky. One trend in the overnight models has been to SLOW DOWN the rain shield that looks like it will try to head our way. If this trend proves to be correct, it’s good news/bad news.

Good news if you have outdoor plans during the daylight hours Monday.

Bad news if you are heading downtown for the fireworks as that’s when it is most likely to rain.

Here’s a couple of the models. The Canadain suggests it’s trying to rain a little by 8pm. The GFS says it is still a couple of hours away.

canadianmon8pmmon8pm

Here’s what I am thinking as far as an hour-by-hour breakdown of the rain chances Monday:

8am-2pm: 0%

2pm-5pm: 10%

5pm-7pm 20%

7pm-8pm: 30%

8pm-11pm 40%

Remember, keep checking the forecast as this is not set in stone by any means.

You can get a complete list of fireworks displays, parades, etc here:

http://www.wfmj.com/story/32274364/fireworks-and-independence-day-celebrations

 

 

 

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