I am back after a long weekend. Welcome to (astronomical) Summer! Yesterday was a steam bath but a cold front is sagging southward through the region this morning and the air is drying out. Dewpoints are dropping through the 50s.
A nice Summer day today with highs in the lower 80s.
INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
Wednesday will be a calm, warm day…great day for the Cavs championship parade! Temperatures will once again climb into the low 80s.
Wednesday night? Potentially a different story. That warm front on the weather map will activate with severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening in the Upper Midwest (Milwaukee, Chicago, etc). A complex of severe thunderstorms will roll east as we get past sunset.
The question is: where does this complex go? It MIGHT bend right and be more of a problem for Columbus and Cincinnati. But if it DOES take more of a north and eastward track, severe weather would be likely to occur in our area Wednesday night.
Storm Prediction Center outlook:
As you can see, the highest confidence resides in places such as Chicago, Fort Wayne, etc. There will likely be isolated tornadoes and lots of wind damage in that corridor. Large hail as well.
A “low-level jet”, or a ribbon of strong winds not far above our heads (3,000-6,000 feet) will be fueling these storms. Storms can pull down those winds (of 80+ mph) easily.
Here’s just ONE model’s depiction of the radar at 2am Thursday. This will be WRONG by some degree, it’s just a matter of how much. Tens of miles or hundreds??
LATE-WEEK AND WEEKEND
Whatever happens Wednesday night, the weather will improve later this week. Thursday could still be unsettled with showers and thunder, unless the overnight complex “eats up” most of the available moisture. Tough call. Friday looks pleasant and warm.
At this point, the weekend looks dry and steamy. Long-range temperature trends on the GFS and European models show plenty of warmth:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
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