WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JUNE 30

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BLOG: WEATHER THROUGH JULY 4TH

Good Thursday morning…..

If you paid attention to weather forecasts on Wednesday you noticed that we had to insert the CHANCE for some rain on the 4th of July. Bummer right? Well we also advised our viewers and followers that it was a CHANCE and that checking the forecast often is a good idea as further refinements were a certainty.

So here’s a few thoughts as I look over the newest data this morning.

RAIN CHANCE #1: FRIDAY

A weak cold front will track our way Friday and there can be spotty shower and thunderstorm activity between 11am-5pm. Hopefully your yard gets a good drink. Not everyone’s will.

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Rain totals will average 0.05-0.15″. Not a lot.

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SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: STILL AWESOME

No problems these days. VERY low humidity for this time of the year and a good deal of sunshine. GREAT evenings for fireworks displays and anything else going on outdoors.

MONDAY THE 4TH

Here is where the forecast gets tricky. One trend in the overnight models has been to SLOW DOWN the rain shield that looks like it will try to head our way. If this trend proves to be correct, it’s good news/bad news.

Good news if you have outdoor plans during the daylight hours Monday.

Bad news if you are heading downtown for the fireworks as that’s when it is most likely to rain.

Here’s a couple of the models. The Canadain suggests it’s trying to rain a little by 8pm. The GFS says it is still a couple of hours away.

canadianmon8pmmon8pm

Here’s what I am thinking as far as an hour-by-hour breakdown of the rain chances Monday:

8am-2pm: 0%

2pm-5pm: 10%

5pm-7pm 20%

7pm-8pm: 30%

8pm-11pm 40%

Remember, keep checking the forecast as this is not set in stone by any means.

You can get a complete list of fireworks displays, parades, etc here:

http://www.wfmj.com/story/32274364/fireworks-and-independence-day-celebrations

 

 

 

TUESDAY (6/28) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING,

Feels nicer out there this morning, right? We are done with the heat and humidity for a while. The second of two cold fronts is moving through the region today and this will reinforce the air mass change that began yesterday.

dewsthisammap

I can’t rule out a sprinkle or shower this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes slightly unstable. 15 hour simulated radar:

hrrr_2016062811_ref_cleveland

Highs today in the mid 70s. Enjoy!

MIDWEEK PERFECTION

Not much to say about Wednesday and Thursday except it will be generally sunny and comfortable. Great summer weather.

thurs

FRIDAY’S WEAK FRONT

This front will not have much moisture to squeeze out. So just spotty showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon. Have outdoor plans through Friday evening? Keep ’em but just know that it might rain briefly.

friday

JULY 4TH WEEKEND

Will this will be awesome. Low humidity and sunshine. All. Weekend. Including Monday the 4th.

Notice the models do not advertise heat and humidity returning in force until after the holiday.

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THIS JUNE VS. LAST JUNE

June 2015 was remarkably wet….this year not so much. Quite the difference!

junecal

june2016

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

Calendar

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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MONDAY (6/27) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

Boy is it still muggy out there. Thankfully that is about to change! Dewpoint temperatures are near 70 this morning:

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Drier air will make inroads over the next 48 hours. Even as early as this afternoon and evening you will notice the air mass feeling less “sticky”.

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Highs today will be similar to yesterday. Will we hit 90 for the first time this season (officially)? It will be close.

ndfd_t2max_cleveland_1

The second of two cold fronts will cross the region tomorrow afternoon. This is the front that has the truly cooler air behind it. Not much moisture to squeeze out tomorrow but there could be a stray shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon.

tuesday

Temperatures will stay in the 70s Tuesday and with dewpoints continuing to drop, it will be much more comfortable.

PLEASANT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

High pressure will pay us a visit and we look for lots of sunshine with comfortable temperatures. Highs in the mid and upper 70s.

thurs

FRIDAY’S FRONT

The next cold front is on schedule to arrive Friday. It will be fairly weak and moisture-starved. Not real impressed with potential rain totals with the boundary.

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GORGEOUS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

The weekend leading up to July 4 looks perfect. Sunshine and comfortable weather. Highs mainly in the 70s to around 80. Low humidity.

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NOW THE BAD NEWS

It’s been pretty dry over the last 6 weeks or so, not only locally but throughout the Northeast and Midwest.

last30rain

Rain totals over the next 10 are likely to be paltry. We are going to continue to see things browning out.

next10

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

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THURSDAY (6/23) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

As expected, severe weather was not a problem for the Valley last night/early this morning. There were many reports of trees down, flooding and tornadoes from Illinois to West Virginia.

reports

Beneficial rain did fall in the area, mainly from Youngstown south. Those with browning lawns in Trumbull and Mercer counties were not so lucky.

DMARain

This morning it is pretty cloudy and muggy. Showers were to our south as of this writing (9:11am).

nowmap

We expect there to be hit-or-miss showers through midday or early afternoon today. A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. Hi-res simulated radar:

hrrr_2016062311_ref_cleveland

A nice evening on the way with decreasing clouds. The lower dewpoint air that is to our northeast will mix in and it will feel less muggy late today and tonight.

dewsthisam.png

FRIDAY AND WEEKEND

Friday a wave of low pressure will scoot by to our south and this will result in more clouds than it looked like there would be previously. A touch of rain can’t be ruled out, mainly south of Rt 224.

friday.png

Look for a hot and dry weekend. Dewpoints will come up enough on Sunday that it may be noticeable. Highs Sunday near 90. Hit the pool!

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sun

NEXT FRONT MONDAY MORNING

Looks like the next cool front will be a weak one. A couple of showers and storms late Sunday night into Monday morning and then pretty warm to hot again Monday afternoon.

mon.png

LONG RANGE

A more comfortable air mass looks to arrive as we close out June. After that, back to the warm stuff although no July heat waves (90+ for a few days) seem likely…at least early in the month.

KYNG_2016062300_eps_min_max_15

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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CONNECT: 

Facebook

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