SUMMER 2016 FORECAST

The calendar still says May but the current pattern is much more mid-summer like! Memorial Day weekend is often considered the “unofficial” start to summer and “Meteorological Summer” is just a few days away from starting (June 1) so in that spirit, here’s what we expect for the summer of 2016.

STREAK OF “HO-HUM” SUMMERS TO END

The last 3 summer seasons have been very “uninteresting” temperature wise with June/July/August ending up near average in 2013, 2014 and 2015. 2014 was the coolest season of that stretch. These more typical summers were preceded by a few hot summers in a row…especially 2010 and 2012.

A look at the last 30 meteorological summers in Youngstown:

SummerTempsLast30Years

This year is likely to be warmer than the last 3. Perhaps not quite as warm as 2010/2011/2012 but still above average. And we will not be alone. Much of the country should have a warm to hot summer (compared to average, of course).

Summer 2016 Temp Forecast

Does this mean a LOT of 95 degree days with stifling humidity? No, not necessarily. But I DO think there will be more 90+ days than the last few years. 2012 was ridiculous and I don’t expect a repeat of that.

Overall, I suspect we will be close to our average of 8-9 90+ days.

90 Degree Days.png

RAINFALL TOTALS: CLOSE TO AVERAGE

Seasonal precipitation forecasts are always tricky, especially in the warm season when some places can get a lot more rain that others, depending on where soaking thunderstorms decide to go. Last summer was very wet (especially in June) in Trumbull County while Columbiana County was not very wet.

Nothing in the data shows this season being abnormally wet or dry overall. There will surely be some exceptions, however.

Summer 2016 Precip Forecast

IF we were to have a dry summer, especially early, western PA could fall into an official drought as that region has been drier than eastern Ohio so far this year.

SOFAR

IMPACTS

Expect higher energy bills this season compared to the last few summers.

There will likely be more days with poor air quality compared to the last few years.

 

Thanks for reading!

Eric

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