A nice sunny Mother’s Day and the new work week is starting with some sunshine as well.
BUT, the radar at 8:20am is a little concerning, right?
Well this is a bit deceiving. A lot of the rain is not reaching the ground north of I-70. There is a lot of DRY air in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere so the rain evaporates on the way down.
You can see the dry air when looking at a vertical profile of the atmosphere (a “sounding”). The sounding for Youngstown early this afternoon shows a large spread in the green (dewpoint) and res (temperature) lines, indicating the air is quite dry.
The HRRR model simulated radar shows some of the precipitation trying to work in around midday today. Aside from a sprinkle, I am not expecting any rain…just an increase in clouds.
Highs today will be just a shade below average.
Tuesday through Thursday will be the unsettled part of the week although none of those days should be a “washout”. We look for a couple of showers Tuesday; thunder is not very likely.
Wednesday will bring a better chance for thunder as more humid air arrives. Notice the “CAPE” a measure of instability, gets pretty high in the afternoon:
Thursday is the day with the best chance for stronger storms, depending on the timing of the arrival of the next front. If the front approaches late in the afternoon, some storms could be feisty.
DRYING OUT FRIDAY
The front sweeps east of Friday does not look bad.
A chilly weekend on the way with showers pretty likely on Saturday. Sunday looks cool but largely dry. A warming trend next week.
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