WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS MAY 31

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TUESDAY (MAY 31) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

Hope you had a good weekend and enjoyed the great weather that we had on Memorial Day. As many begin a short work week, more warm and pleasant weather is on the way.

While temperatures will reach the lower 80s today, dewpoints remain in the comfortable zone (50s) so it will not be stifling.

dew

todayhighs

Wednesday will be a couple of degrees warmer but still not all that humid. Highs around 85-86.

THURSDAY: UNSETTLED

Thursday holds the best (only) chance for wet weather this week as a cold front is expected to roll across the area. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, mainly from midday on….but the day will be far from a washout. Not very concerned about severe weather.

thursday

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: NICE!

In the wake of the front, we look for nice early June weather Friday and Saturday with sunshine both days. Highs in the 70s with low humidity. Perfect for graduation parties and other early June outdoor staples.

friday

sat

RAIN SUNDAY?

Sunday could bring some showers to the Valley with the next system.

sun

Behind that system, a trough of low pressure will swing through the Great Lakes, meaning some cool weather is likely early next week. There may be a couple of days with highs in the 60s.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

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SUMMER 2016 FORECAST

The calendar still says May but the current pattern is much more mid-summer like! Memorial Day weekend is often considered the “unofficial” start to summer and “Meteorological Summer” is just a few days away from starting (June 1) so in that spirit, here’s what we expect for the summer of 2016.

STREAK OF “HO-HUM” SUMMERS TO END

The last 3 summer seasons have been very “uninteresting” temperature wise with June/July/August ending up near average in 2013, 2014 and 2015. 2014 was the coolest season of that stretch. These more typical summers were preceded by a few hot summers in a row…especially 2010 and 2012.

A look at the last 30 meteorological summers in Youngstown:

SummerTempsLast30Years

This year is likely to be warmer than the last 3. Perhaps not quite as warm as 2010/2011/2012 but still above average. And we will not be alone. Much of the country should have a warm to hot summer (compared to average, of course).

Summer 2016 Temp Forecast

Does this mean a LOT of 95 degree days with stifling humidity? No, not necessarily. But I DO think there will be more 90+ days than the last few years. 2012 was ridiculous and I don’t expect a repeat of that.

Overall, I suspect we will be close to our average of 8-9 90+ days.

90 Degree Days.png

RAINFALL TOTALS: CLOSE TO AVERAGE

Seasonal precipitation forecasts are always tricky, especially in the warm season when some places can get a lot more rain that others, depending on where soaking thunderstorms decide to go. Last summer was very wet (especially in June) in Trumbull County while Columbiana County was not very wet.

Nothing in the data shows this season being abnormally wet or dry overall. There will surely be some exceptions, however.

Summer 2016 Precip Forecast

IF we were to have a dry summer, especially early, western PA could fall into an official drought as that region has been drier than eastern Ohio so far this year.

SOFAR

IMPACTS

Expect higher energy bills this season compared to the last few summers.

There will likely be more days with poor air quality compared to the last few years.

 

Thanks for reading!

Eric

MONDAY (5/23) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

Ready for Summer?? You better be because it arrives this week. This will be one of those “flipping a switch” weeks where the weather pattern and season seemingly changes instantly.

So far, May has been a cool month in much of the region:

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This map will look different by May 31.

Today: PERFECTION with sunshine, dry air and afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s.

nowmap

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TUESDAY

A carbon  copy of today, just a few degrees warmer. Niiiiiiiice.

tuesday

SUMMER ARRIVAL

A warm front will lift across the region on Wednesday, opening the floodgates to some very warm and increasingly humid air. There might be a shower or thunderstorm around.

wedspm

On Thursday and Friday, expect temperatures to soar well into the 80s with noticeable humidity. Random/pop-up thunderstorms will be a possibility both days, especially in the afternoon.

thursdaypm.png

fridaypm

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

Looks like more of the same! In fact the hottest weather overall may be on Saturday. There might be spotty thunderstorms each day but I don’t see any washouts.

Look at these temperatures on the GFS ensemble model….WHEW. Time to bust out the pools and A/C.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpg

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

ezgif.com-video-to-gif

CONNECT: 

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

YouTube

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