WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS APRIL 29

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APRIL 28 MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

Hopefully you got a chance to enjoy yesterday afternoon’s fine weather because 3 of the next 4 days are not so great. Rain is pushing in as of 8:30 this morning:

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Expect a several-hour period of rainy weather…things will become more scattered or “hit/miss” for the mid and late afternoon hours. 15 hour futurecast:

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Breakdown of rain chances today:

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Temperatures will really struggle today. Highs 52-56 on average.

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MURKY FRIDAY

The work week will end on a cloudy, damp and gloomy note. With the low overcast, expect spotty light rain/drizzle at times, especially in the morning.

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Models in good agreement on rainfall totals over the next 36 hours:

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Temperatures will stay cool Friday as well….no matter which model you look at…the answer is “grab the jacket”. Highs again 52-56.

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WEEKEND OUTLOOK

The weekend rainmaker looks a little faster now, so clouds will thicken up during the day Saturday. I suspect any rain holds off until close to sunset so most of the day should be fine for outdoor activities.

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Expect periods of rain Saturday night into Sunday.

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The rain is likely to stick around into at least part of Monday. The GFS model (shown) scoots the rain away too fast, in my opinion.

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LONG RANGE:

I continue to see signs that the pattern will be a warmer one by the 2nd week of May.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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APRIL 27 MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

A cloudy start to our Wednesday but I expect sunshine to bust through as we head deeper into the morning and midday hours. A seasonable day today with highs in the lower and middle 60s.

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The weather is still quiet active in the middle of the country although severe weather will not be as common today as it was yesterday.

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That storm system, in a weakened form, will track our way tomorrow. This will lead to a good chance for raindrops.

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I suspect the wettest period will be the midday hours. The day should not be a total washout. Hourly odds of precipitation falling where you are (should say THURSDAY):

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Temperatures may struggle Thursday. Some modeling has us barely into the lower 50s.  Ignore the European model line (purple) as it is doing something funky.

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Friday looks to stay cloudy and damp with an “inverted trough” setup over western PA/eastern OH. Can be a touch of rain at times.

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Model rain totals through Friday:

ModelRain

THE WEEKEND

Saturday remains the choice day of the weekend. We expect a mix of sunshine and clouds. Highs 60-64.

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On Sunday….rain is looking likely. The GFS model (shown) is probably too far south with the rain. Get the grass mowed on Saturday.

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LONG RANGE:

We may emerge from the average/below-average pattern during the second week of May. Until then, don’t expect a lot of unusual warmth.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

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APRIL 26 MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

Whew, what a noisy hour that was early this morning! Howling winds, heavy rain and some lightning and thunder starting around 4am. The wind gusted to 43mph at the airport.

Some local rain totals:

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The band of heavy rain and thunder has pushed well south and many places have sunshine at 8:35am.

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The front that is still off to our north will glide through around midday. There can be a spotty shower (small chance for thunder) but that is about it. Most of today will be dry. 15 hour simulated radar:

hrrr_2016042610_ref_cleveland

Temperatures will reach the mid and upper 60s around midday and then readings will hold steady or even slowly fall.

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Severe weather outbreak is still expected today in the Plains states. Se veral large, long-lived tornadoes and plenty of large, damaging hail seem likely. The most active part of the day will be early this evening.

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A NICE WEDNESDAY

In between systems Wednesday so we’ll have some sun and seasonable temperatures. A nice day!

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DAMP THURSDAY

The steadiest rain is likely to be Thursday morning but a shower can linger well into Thursday and even Thursday night. A potentially very cool day as well as we may be hard pressed to get out of the lower/middle 50s. Will depend on the exact track of the low.

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FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND

Shower possibility remains in the forecast for Friday morning….hopefully we can get some sun in the afternoon.

Saturday: looking good with some sunshine and seasonable temperatures.

Sunday: not as good with some rain likely.

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LONG RANGE:

Not a very warm pattern in the medium to long range. It seems that we won’t see yesterday’s warmth again for a while.

longrange

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

Calendar.jpg

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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APRIL 25 MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

Hope it was an excellent weekend. The weather was pretty excellent with temperatures reaching the upper 60s yesterday after a cold start.

This will be a busy week. Let’s start with the easy part. Today will be much warmer and just about as sunny as Sunday. We expect highs in the upper 70s this afternoon.

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There is a very small, like 10% chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and early this evening. Don’t cancel the outdoor plans. Hi-res simulated radar shows basically nothing:

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A high risk of wet weather is in the forecast tonight into tomorrow. It will come in the form of scattered showers and perhaps some thunder. The threat for rain will end from north to south tomorrow afternoon and early tomorrow evening.

HEAVIER STORMS?

I am not concerned about *severe* weather, but there is a chance for a heavier storm or two tomorrow afternoon in the SOUTHERN part of our viewing area. We are talking mainly south of Rt. 30. The atmosphere will be rather unstable and our cold front will be sliding southward into that warm (and somewhat humid) air mass.

A higher risk of severe weather exists toward the I-70 corridor.

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day2ohpa

Speaking of severe weather, the biggest outbreak of the season so far is looking likely out in the Plains Tuesday into Tuesday night. There will likely be several tornadoes and plenty of large hail.

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Back here at home, rain totals tonight into tomorrow will probably average 0.25-0.50″.

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By Tuesday night, our front will be sagging south and the sky will clear…a colder night ahead.

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TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY

Although clouds will return by the end of the day, a quiet hump day is on tap.

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SOGGY THURSDAY

The clouds that return late Wednesday will yield rain later Wednesday night into Thursday. Thursday will be the wettest day of the week.

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FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND

We’ll dry out with increasing afternoon sunshine Friday.

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At this point, I think Saturday is the better half of the weekend as rain may return at some point Sunday.

TEMPERATURES

Not a lot of variance in the next 10 days. Lots of days that will be near average. The warming trend that looked like it would occur during the upcoming weekend has been delayed by a few days.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpg

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!

Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

 21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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CONNECT: 

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