THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

After a high of 64 on Wednesday, today will be even warmer. We’ve made our forecast high 70 and honestly, I could see it getting to 71 or 72. We are firmly in the warm sector ahead of a strong storm system that is moving through the middle of the country.

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Temperatures will soar in our region today with mid 70s common from Pittsburgh to Zanesville.

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But that system is heading our way and it will drag a cold front toward the Valley this evening. Showers will become increasingly likely around dinner time and we expect an unsettled evening with showers and even thunderstorms.

15 hour simulated radar (HRRR model):

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What about severe weather? Could these storms turn strong? It’s a marginal situation. On one hand, the front is coming through at an unfavorable time of day for severe weather. The atmosphere will not be all that unstable. On the other hand, a “low level jet”, a pocket of strong winds at around 5,000 feet, will be pushing overhead. This can aid in storm development and increase the chance that some of those strong winds get pulled down in heavier cells.

Animation showing the arrival of that jet this evening:

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The Storm Prediction Center has the area in the “marginal” risk for severe weather.

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So, something to watch for sure, although again the overall risk of damaging winds is not all that high.

MUCH COOLER FRIDAY

At daybreak on Friday, temperatures will be between 39-43 degrees and that’s about as warm as it will be all day. Temperatures will hold steady or gently fall with a thick blanket of clouds most of the day. It will feel a whole lot different! There can be a rain and wet snow shower in spots through midday.

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THE WEEKEND

Easter weekend is still looking excellent. High pressure will slide east Saturday and a southwest wind will warm us up into the 50s. Lots of sunshine.

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Easter Sunday looks warm and dry (through the daylight hours) with increasing afternoon clouds. Might be 70 or so! Enjoy. Rain arrives Sunday night.

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We look for a soggy period Sunday night into at least Monday morning.

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LONG RANGE:

A cool down early next week will be followed by a midweek warm surge (70 again?). Then cooler weather for the start of April. The numbers shown here may be too high in early April.

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 2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:

Made the right adjustment yesterday as it became apparent that temperatures will blast off despite the clouds.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video  will probably mostly focus on the incoming showers and storms. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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