Well it certainly was a mild night as most back yards did not see temperatures drop below 50. This gives up quite the springboard today! 8:30am temps:
The day started out fairly cloudy but there should be some clearing…leading to a jump in temperatures. The HRRR (as usual) is pretty aggressive with temperatures today but it is likely not far off. Shave a couple of degrees off these readings and you probably have today’s highs.
The record high of 77 is out of reach today. But WOW what a day.
Quite the remarkable pattern across the continent today. An unusual upper-level low is heading across northern Mexico…upper lows usually do not travel this far south. This is pumping up the ridge downstream, leading to the May Preview in so many places.
WEDNESDAY: JUST AS WARM (WARMER?)
Wednesday is tricky because the afternoon may end up clouider than today and we can’t even rule out a passing shower before the day is through. This may keep temperatures from climbing above 70 but then again if we get an hour or two more sunshine…it’s off to the races. Tomorrow’s record high of 71 will be challenged.
LATE-WEEK RAIN (BUT STILL WARM!)
Showers are most likely LATE in the day on Thursday, giving us plenty of time to heat up. 70 could be in the cards once again. Showers should be around for Thursday night and Friday morning with clearing Friday afternoon.
Although Friday will be cooler, it will STILL be at least 10 degrees above average. Not bad!
But still warm! Our old front will lift back north as a warm front, resulting in temperatures in the 60s for the weekend. Showers will visit from time to time but it will not be a washout so you should be able to enjoy the warmth at least a little bit.
We will be locked into this warm pattern through at least St. Patrick’s Day. Models have some hints that it will be “less warm” after that. Below average? Hard to say but maybe closer to average. One of the global oscillations we look at is the “EPO”…when it goes into the negative phase that is often a signal for cooler temps in the eastern US. Models show in heading into negative territory in about 10 days.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:
Back on track yesterday. Been a challenging month so far but I like our chances of posting a long streak this week and next!
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will break down the rain chances and timing later this week. More on the long range as well. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
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Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!